VOA常速英语2007年-Study Measures Risk of Hip Fracture in Women

By Carol Pearson
Washington
28 November 2007
 

Every year, more than one and a half million people worldwide fall and fracture a hip¹. Of that number, about 80 percent are women. These fractures are painful and associated with a high death rate.  VOA's Carol Pearson reports on a new computer program that predicts a woman's risk of hip fracture over a period of five years.

"How do you consider your health?  Fair, good or very good?" asks the doctor of his patient. The answers to the questions Dr. John Robbins asks could tell women about the risk of fracturing a hip in the next five years. 

Dr. Robbins works at the University of California.  He and researchers from other institutions studied more than 100,000 postmenopausal women to see what factors increased their chances of fracturing a hip.

"Clearly, the major factor is age, and that the older you get, the more likely you are to have a fracture," says Dr. Robbins.

The World Health Organization reports greater incidents of hip fractures in rich countries than in poor ones.  But the World Health Organization projects the number of hip fractures to quadruple in the next 40 years because of the increasing numbers of older people.  Hip fractures can lead to disability and place a major economic burden on health care systems worldwide.

Medications are available to prevent them, but the medications are expensive and they have side effects.  That is why Dr. Robbins wanted to develop a computer program to help predict who is likely to suffer a fracture.

"We took all the information from the approximately 100,000 women in the observational trial,” he says, “and then looked at whether they went on the have hip fractures and were able to come up with a list of risk factors that predisposed them to hip fracture.  They may not be the causes, but they were associated with the hip fractures. And then we went on to test this in the women in the intervention² trials."

The researchers found many factors beyond age to consider.  Among them: race. White women were found to be at greater risk, so were thinner and taller women, smokers³, diabetics and sedentary women.  Even a woman's perception of how good her health is plays a role. When all the factors are entered, the program estimates the risk.

Dr. Robbins says more testing is needed to make sure the predictions are accurate.  His hope is the test could help reduce the risk of hip fracture, early death and expense involved in caring for someone with a hip fracture. The Journal of the American Medical Association published the study.

1 hip   

n.臀部，髋；屋脊

参考例句：

• The thigh bone is connected to the hip bone.股骨连着髋骨。
• The new coats blouse gracefully above the hip line.新外套在臀围线上优美地打着褶皱。

2 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

3 smokers   

吸烟者( smoker的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Many smokers who are chemically addicted to nicotine cannot cut down easily. 许多有尼古丁瘾的抽烟人不容易把烟戒掉。
• Chain smokers don't care about the dangers of smoking. 烟鬼似乎不在乎吸烟带来的种种危害。