2007年VOA标准英语-South Africa's Mbeki Lays Groundwork for Stabil

By Delia Robertson
Johannesburg
19 April 2007

Last month, Southern African leaders appointed South African President Thabo Mbeki their mediator¹ to facilitate talks between Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe and opposition² groups in his country.  The goal is to end the political crisis in Zimbabwe, prepare for free and fair elections as early as next year, and lay the groundwork for an economic recovery program.  In this report from our southern Africa bureau in Johannesburg, VOA's Delia Robertson takes a closer look at how the facilitation might work and what its chances of success are.

Zimbabweans wondering what President Mbeki has in mind for negotiations³ in their country need look no further than South Africa itself.  The blueprint⁴ Mr. Mbeki will be working from is the one that brought an end to apartheid in South Africa.

But Mr. Mbeki will not be seeking to impose the same final model on Zimbabwe that South Africans chose.  Rather he will be asking them to use similar methods.  This means having talks with as wide a range of interest groups as possible, each with an equal standing⁵, discussing and debating, giving and taking, until consensus⁶ is reached.

Zimbabwe's leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Morgan Tsvangirai, argues with a policeman after being told he could not hold a rally in Harare, 18 Feb 2007

Already Mr. Mbeki has asked the two factions⁷ of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) for proposals, including on constitutional reform and on requirements for the holding of free and fair elections.  And Tomaz Augusto Salomão, the executive secretary of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), has begun an audit⁸ of the Zimbabwe economy to determine what will be needed to kick-start its recovery.

But Chris Landsberg, director of Johannesburg's Center for Policy Studies, says that looming⁹ large over all Mr. Mbeki's plans is President Robert Mugabe, who he says has, on four previous occasions, obstructed¹⁰ regional initiatives to end the crisis in Zimbabwe.

"But since 2000 SADC in general - South Africa in particular tried to do something - they have consistently offered something since 2001, they have offered something in 2002, 2003 - we know about the significant offer in 2005 where South Africa even offered a loan package as much as $1 billion in exchange for political concessions," he said.

Mr. Mbeki has set himself a tight timeline.  He would like an agreement between the parties early enough to allow adequate preparations for an election next March that will be viewed as free and fair not only by all the parties in Zimbabwe and by Southern African leaders, but also by the international community.  Landsberg warns that Mr. Mugabe is likely to resist for as long as possible.

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Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe addresses party supporters in Harare, 30 Mar 2007

"I think what we are likely to see between now and next year's proposed election, we are going to have Mugabe dragging out the Mbeki facilitation as much as possible," he added.  "In other words, he is going to posture¹², he going to play games, he is going to be too busy, he is only going to show urgency to meet Mbeki and to formally participate at a time when he will say it is too late to have the facilitation and to have elections.  One of the things must give.  So he'll make a convincing case for the postponement¹⁴ of the elections."

Landsberg argues that Mr. Mugabe will likely want to postpone¹³ elections until 2010, the latest possible date they could be held under the current constitution.  He says that this will enable Mr. Mugabe to delay identifying his successor, because, he says, once this happens, Mr. Mugabe will lose whatever control he has left within ZANU-PF, his own party.

"At some point he is going to anoint a successor," he explained.  "And, of course, he is going to go for somebody who is likely to be seen by him as a puppet.  And instead of that power working in his favor, people will then say this is it, he is now weakened, then they will really push him out."

But other experts, such as Chris Maroleng of the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, say that the confluence¹⁵ of events in Zimbabwe and the region in recent months may be enough to propel Mr. Mugabe to fall into line on the timeline set by southern Africa leaders for completion of the mediation¹⁶. 

Maroleng argues that the octogenarian leader has never before had such poor support within his own party.  Also that he has never previously¹⁷ had to face a united opposition from southern Africa leaders, as he did last month in Dar Es Salaam¹⁸.

"If he yet again scuttles¹⁹ such an opportunity, this would create the impression in the region that he doesn't take his counterparts seriously," he explained.

Following the Dar Es Salaam meeting, the leaders issued a statement that expressed support for Mr. Mugabe and also called on western countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom to abandon so-called smart or targeted sanctions against Zimbabwe.  Maroleng says that it has become common knowledge that in the privacy of the meeting, Mr. Mugabe was subjected to severe criticism from the regional grouping.  He says their call for an end to sanctions was a device to prevent Mr. Mugabe from finding excuses to avoid or delay the mediation.

"The fact that they are distancing themselves from a western approach to regime change is a clear indication that the southern African development community is really preparing the groundwork for a mediation in Zimbabwe and closing any exit that Mugabe has taken where he has [in the past] consistently accused any mediator as puppets of the west or neo-colonial lackeys²⁰ of the west," he said.

Like all previous initiatives, the current effort will likely include an offer that will allow Mr Mugabe to retire gracefully²¹ without the threat of being brought on charges before the International Criminal Court or even before Zimbabwe's own courts for crimes against humanity.

To satisfy Zimbabwe's opposition, Mr. Mbeki will have to find a way to ensure that pre-election campaigning and the elections themselves are overseen²³ by an independent electoral commission supported by a peacekeeping body, such as the Peace Commission which operated in South Africa in 1994.  In addition, opposition groups also want the support of southern African and western observers.

Any agreement will also include an economic recovery program designed to kick-start Zimbabwe's ailing²⁴ economy as quickly as possible.  That will require the support of the international community, particularly the industrialized nations, and Mr. Mbeki will be keenly aware that this support will not be forthcoming unless the agreement meets their criteria²⁵ for free and fair elections.
 
Mr. Mbeki has appointed two seasoned South African facilitators who have already held several meetings with representatives of the two factions of Zimbabwe's Movement for Democratic Change and with representatives of some Zimbabwean civil society groups.

The facilitators will draw up a draft agreement, and when that is ready in the coming weeks, Mr. Mbeki will want to present it to Mr. Mugabe. It is at that point, that Zimbabweans and regional leaders will get their first indication of whether or not Mr. Mugabe intends to fully²² cooperate with the Southern Africa Development Community's mediator.

1 mediator   

n.调解人，中介人

参考例句：

• He always takes the role of a mediator in any dispute.他总是在争论中充当调停人的角色。
• He will appear in the role of mediator.他将出演调停者。

2 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

3 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

4 blueprint   

n.蓝图，设计图，计划；vt.制成蓝图，计划

参考例句：

• All the machine parts on a blueprint must answer each other.设计图上所有的机器部件都应互相配合。
• The documents contain a blueprint for a nuclear device.文件内附有一张核装置的设计蓝图。

5 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

6 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

7 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

8 audit   

v.审计；查帐；核对；旁听

参考例句：

• Each year they audit our accounts and certify them as being true and fair.他们每年对我们进行账务审核，以确保其真实无误。
• As usual,the yearly audit will take place in December.跟往常一样，年度审计将在十二月份进行。

9 looming   

n.上现蜃景（光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼）v.隐约出现，阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 )；隐约出现，阴森地逼近

参考例句：

• The foothills were looming ahead through the haze. 丘陵地带透过薄雾朦胧地出现在眼前。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Then they looked up. Looming above them was Mount Proteome. 接着他们往上看，在其上隐约看到的是蛋白质组山。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 回顾与展望

10 obstructed   

阻塞( obstruct的过去式和过去分词 )； 堵塞； 阻碍； 阻止

参考例句：

• Tall trees obstructed his view of the road. 有大树挡着，他看不到道路。
• The Irish and Bristol Channels were closed or grievously obstructed. 爱尔兰海峡和布里斯托尔海峡或遭受封锁，或受到了严重阻碍。

11 mar   

vt.破坏，毁坏，弄糟

参考例句：

• It was not the custom for elderly people to mar the picnics with their presence.大人们照例不参加这样的野餐以免扫兴。
• Such a marriage might mar your career.这样的婚姻说不定会毁了你的一生。

12 posture   

n.姿势，姿态，心态，态度；v.作出某种姿势

参考例句：

• The government adopted an uncompromising posture on the issue of independence.政府在独立这一问题上采取了毫不妥协的态度。
• He tore off his coat and assumed a fighting posture.他脱掉上衣，摆出一副打架的架势。

13 postpone   

v.延期，推迟

参考例句：

• I shall postpone making a decision till I learn full particulars.在未获悉详情之前我得从缓作出决定。
• She decided to postpone the converastion for that evening.她决定当天晚上把谈话搁一搁。

14 postponement   

n.推迟

参考例句：

• He compounded with his creditors for a postponement of payment. 他与债权人达成协议延期付款。
• Rain caused the postponement of several race-meetings. 几次赛马大会因雨延期。

15 confluence   

n.汇合，聚集

参考例句：

• They built the city at the confluence of two rivers.他们建造了城市的汇合两条河流。
• The whole DV movements actually was a confluence of several trends.整个当时的DV运动，实际上是几股潮流的同谋。

16 mediation   

n.调解

参考例句：

• The dispute was settled by mediation of the third country. 这场争端通过第三国的斡旋而得以解决。
• The dispute was settled by mediation. 经调解使争端得以解决。

17 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

18 salaam   

n.额手之礼，问安，敬礼；v.行额手礼

参考例句：

• And the people were so very friendly:full of huge beaming smiles,calling out "hello" and "salaam".这里的人民都很友好，灿然微笑着和我打招呼，说“哈罗”和“萨拉姆”。
• Salaam is a Muslim form of salutation.额手礼是穆斯林的问候方式。

19 scuttles   

n.天窗( scuttle的名词复数 )v.使船沉没( scuttle的第三人称单数 )；快跑，急走

参考例句：

20 lackeys   

n.听差( lackey的名词复数 )；男仆（通常穿制服）；卑躬屈膝的人；被待为奴仆的人

参考例句：

• When the boss falls from power, his lackeys disperse. 树倒猢狲散。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The singer was surrounded by the usual crowd of lackeys and hangers on. 那个歌手让那帮总是溜须拍马、前呼後拥的人给围住了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

21 gracefully   

ad.大大方方地；优美地

参考例句：

• She sank gracefully down onto a cushion at his feet. 她优雅地坐到他脚旁的垫子上。
• The new coats blouse gracefully above the hip line. 新外套在臀围线上优美地打着褶皱。

22 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

23 overseen   

v.监督，监视( oversee的过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He was overseen stealing the letters. 他被人撞见在偷信件。 来自辞典例句
• It will be overseen by ThomasLi, director of IBM China Research Laboratory. 该实验室由IBM中国研究院院长李实恭(ThomasLi)引导。 来自互联网

24 ailing   

v.生病

参考例句：

• They discussed the problems ailing the steel industry. 他们讨论了困扰钢铁工业的问题。
• She looked after her ailing father. 她照顾有病的父亲。

25 criteria   

n.标准

参考例句：

• The main criterion is value for money.主要的标准是钱要用得划算。
• There are strict criteria for inclusion in the competition.参赛的标准很严格。