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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
Moscow
11 May 2007
Armenians go to the polls this Saturday in a parliamentary election seen as a key test for democracy ahead of next year's presidential vote. VOA's Lisa McAdams in Moscow reports two pro-government parties are running strong against a field of nearly 20 opposition1 parties.
Supporters of the Country of Law Party attend a campaign rally 06 May 2007 in Yerevan, Armenia ahead of the 12 May 2007 parliamentary elections |
With elections for a new president just one year away, the international community has made it clear that is wants to see an improvement over Armenia's last parliamentary elections, in 2003, when there were widespread allegations of voter fraud.
The United States says millions of dollars in aid to Armenia could be threatened if the election is deemed unfair. The European Union, Armenia's primary trading partner, also says a fair election is necessary for Armenia to continue participating in its European Neighborhood Policy program.
Yevgeni Volk, the Director of the Heritage Foundation's Moscow office, says Armenia's authorities know they must produce a better parliamentary election than in 2003. But either way, he says, the country is destined3 for change.
"Whoever wins in the election, even those forces mostly associated with Russia, I believe that they will have to review their policies toward more openness toward the European Union and NATO, just because Russia can not offer Armenia reliable, economic and political prospects4 for the future," he noted5.
Volk notes that more than 30 percent of Armenia's 3 million people live on less than $2 a day. Discontent is high, he says, but so too is voter apathy6.
Despite growing discontent, few of Armenia's opposition parties are expected to secure the five percent threshold needed to join parliament. Volk and other analysts8 say that is because the political opposition made a tactical error in failing to unite under a single anti-government banner.
Opposition leaders are already warning of possible fraud in Saturday's election and say they will organize mass street protests, if they consider the vote unfair.
Analyst7 Volk says much will depend on the election results.
"If the margin9 between the winners and losers will be narrow, I believe it will really cause some kinds of protests and violence, which will be difficult to deal with," he added. "If the gap will be larger, I believe the opposition will feel weaker."
There have already been several incidents of election-related violence leading up to Saturday's vote and, in the final week of campaigning, authorities in Armenia announced the arrest of opposition activist10 Alexander Arzumanian on money-laundering charges.
The arrest significantly raised opposition fears that the upcoming parliamentary vote will be neither free, nor fair. Pro-government parties deny there will be falsification and say voters will back the government's record.
Two pro-government parties, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, led by presidential favorite Serge Sarkisian, and the Prosperous Armenia party of Gagik Tsarukian, are expected to sweep the election.
The outcome of Saturday's election is likely to dictate11 the course of the country's presidential vote in 2008. Sarkisian, the acting12 prime minister and President Robert Kocharyan's friend and favored successor, is expected by analysts to easily defeat the opposition when voters in go to the polls next year.
1 opposition | |
n.反对,敌对 | |
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2 Soviet | |
adj.苏联的,苏维埃的;n.苏维埃 | |
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3 destined | |
adj.命中注定的;(for)以…为目的地的 | |
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4 prospects | |
n.希望,前途(恒为复数) | |
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5 noted | |
adj.著名的,知名的 | |
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6 apathy | |
n.漠不关心,无动于衷;冷淡 | |
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7 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
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8 analysts | |
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 ) | |
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9 margin | |
n.页边空白;差额;余地,余裕;边,边缘 | |
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10 activist | |
n.活动分子,积极分子 | |
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11 dictate | |
v.口授;(使)听写;指令,指示,命令 | |
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12 acting | |
n.演戏,行为,假装;adj.代理的,临时的,演出用的 | |
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