2007年VOA标准英语-Turmoil in the Horn of Africa

By Aida Akl
Washington, D.C.
10 May 2007

Despite signs of progress in resolving some of the Horn of Africa's festering disputes, a range of conflicts extending from Sudan to Somalia and from Eritrea to Uganda threatens to further destabilize the region.

The Horn of Africa encompasses¹ Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Somalia, Uganda and Kenya. Most of these nations have been struggling with rebellions and regional disputes for decades. The conflict between the Sudanese government and Darfur rebels seeking greater political power and wealth, for example, is in its fifth year. Uganda and Ethiopia have problems with separatist rebels, and Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea have deteriorated² since the two nations fought a war over a border dispute less than a decade ago. Neighboring Somalia, which has been plagued by violence for 15 years, is trying to restore normalcy after ousting³ Islamists from power with Ethiopian military aid.

A Regional Crisis

While these conflicts appear to be separate, Terrence Lyons of George Mason University's Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution says all of the Horn of Africa problems are linked. "It is accurate to think of a region in conflict rather than individual countries in conflict. So an escalation⁴ in Somalia has implications for Ethiopia where groups such as the Oromo and the Ogadeni separatist rebels are either emboldened⁵ or restricted based on what is happening in Somalia," says Lyons. "For the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict where the stalemate on the border is reflected in the stalemate or escalation in Somalia, and then from spillover effects, there's a large number of Somali refugees flowing into Kenya; a growing polarization in the region between Muslims and Christians⁶ that has implications for Ethiopia."

This polarization, some analysts⁷ argue, has been aggravated⁸ by Ethiopia's recent military intervention⁹ in Somalia and could have destabilizing effects beyond the Horn of Africa.

Ethiopia and Eritrea

The Heritage Foundation's Brett Shaefer says part of the blame also lies with regional leaders for failing to address festering conflicts, whether in Darfur, northern Uganda, Somalia or along the Ethiopian-Eritrean border.

"The government of Khartoum is obviously not very willing to yield on its stance in Darfur. The Ethiopian government is a repressive regime and so is the one in Eritrea. And both of them seem hell-bent on moving forward and winning this conflict despite the fact that there doesn't seem to be any real positive outcome that would result from that," says Shaefer. "They don't seem to be very focused on trying to resolve the conflict rather than intent on trying to persevere¹⁰. And there also doesn't seem to be a whole lot of willingness on the part of groups in Somalia - - the various warlords, the Islamist elements or the Transitional Federal Government - - to come to a joint¹¹ power sharing arrangement that would result in a sustainable government there."

A Proxy¹² War?

While the Somali conflict has remained relatively¹³ contained, most analysts say Somalia has become a battleground for Ethiopian-Eritrean rivalries¹⁴. And many regional experts note that Horn of Africa states typically become involved in cross-border proxy wars to weaken their rivals.

William Zartman of the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies says a country intent on avoiding direct confrontation¹⁵ might use a liberation movement in a neighboring state to weaken that nation's government.

"The Sudanese and the Ethiopians, the Eritreans and the Ethiopians, the Somalis and the Ethiopians, the Eritreans and the Sudanese have been doing this since the 1960s. The ironic¹⁶ thing is that the home governments in each case, hunkering down in their capitals, are trying to ensure their own stability by carrying out proxy wars against their neighbors," says Zartman. "So this reinforces the stability of President Isaias Afwerki in Eritrea and reinforces the stability of President Girma Woldegiorgis's government in Ethiopia and Sudanese President Omar Beshir in Khartoum and the government in Mogadishu."

While slow progress has been made in peace talks in Darfur and northern Uganda, Zartman says long-term stability in the Horn of Africa cannot be achieved while corrupt¹⁷, autocratic regimes remain in power.

Hope for the Future?

This is why George Washington University's David Shinn sees little room for optimism in the Horn of Africa's short-term future. "There are enough of these negative issues that are still out there - - at least a few of which may even be worsening - - that it's a very mixed picture. And if you look at it a year from now, I would probably come to the same conclusion: it's going to be a very mixed bag," says Shinn. "There will be some conflicts in which there has been either progress or at least no further setbacks, there will be others where there will be just very modest, if any progress, and there will be some where there will actually be setbacks and they maybe worse then than they are today."

A Sudanese refugee in the Sakali Displaced Persons Camp in Darfur

Most analysts agree, given the volatile¹⁸ nature of the conflicts in Somalia, Sudan and along the Ethiopian-Eritrean border. George Mason University's Terrence Lyons worries about escalating¹⁹ violence in all of these areas.

"It does not seem that the Transitional Federal Government in Somalia is finding the means to build a broad-based government. The Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict is by no means settled and will continue to spill out and foment²⁰ proxy wars until it is resolved at its fundamental level. And the conflict in Sudan has the potential for escalation, not only in Darfur, but also in the North-South Sudan Comprehensive Peace Agreement," says Lyons. "That being said, one of the most remarkable²¹ things about the Horn of Africa is the resilience of its people. Despite conflicts for many, many years in many of these countries, people have found ways to persevere, often at a very high cost."

A high cost that has claimed more than 1.5 million lives in Darfur and tens-of-thousands more in Uganda, Ethiopia and Eritrea. What is needed, most analysts say, is for the regional leaders to find the political will to resolve these conflicts before they spiral out of control.

1 encompasses   

v.围绕( encompass的第三人称单数 )；包围；包含；包括

参考例句：

• The job encompasses a wide range of responsibilities. 这项工作涉及的职责范围很广。
• Its conservation law encompasses both its magnitude and its direction. 它的守恒定律包括大小和方向两方面。 来自辞典例句

2 deteriorated   

恶化，变坏( deteriorate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Her health deteriorated rapidly, and she died shortly afterwards. 她的健康状况急剧恶化，不久便去世了。
• His condition steadily deteriorated. 他的病情恶化，日甚一日。

3 ousting   

驱逐( oust的现在分词 )； 革职； 罢黜； 剥夺

参考例句：

• The resulting financial chaos led to the ousting of Bristol-Myers' s boss. 随后引发的财政混乱导致了百时美施贵宝的总裁下台。
• The ousting of the president has drawn widespread criticism across Latin America and the wider world. 洪都拉斯总统被驱逐时间引起拉丁美洲甚至全世界的广泛批评。

4 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

5 emboldened   

v.鼓励，使有胆量( embolden的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Emboldened by the wine, he went over to introduce himself to her. 他借酒壮胆，走上前去向她作自我介绍。
• His success emboldened him to expand his business. 他有了成就因而激发他进一步扩展业务。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 Christians   

n.基督教徒( Christian的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Christians of all denominations attended the conference. 基督教所有教派的人都出席了这次会议。
• His novel about Jesus caused a furore among Christians. 他关于耶稣的小说激起了基督教徒的公愤。

7 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

8 aggravated   

使恶化( aggravate的过去式和过去分词 )； 使更严重； 激怒； 使恼火

参考例句：

• If he aggravated me any more I shall hit him. 假如他再激怒我，我就要揍他。
• Far from relieving my cough, the medicine aggravated it. 这药非但不镇咳，反而使我咳嗽得更厉害。

9 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

10 persevere   

v.坚持，坚忍，不屈不挠

参考例句：

• They are determined to persevere in the fight.他们决心坚持战斗。
• It is strength of character enabled him to persevere.他那坚强的性格使他能够坚持不懈。

11 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

12 proxy   

n.代理权，代表权；（对代理人的）委托书；代理人

参考例句：

• You may appoint a proxy to vote for you.你可以委托他人代你投票。
• We enclose a form of proxy for use at the Annual General Meeting.我们附上委任年度大会代表的表格。

13 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

14 rivalries   

n.敌对，竞争，对抗( rivalry的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The new government was torn by rivalries. 新政府由于各派对立而四分五裂。 来自辞典例句
• Rivalries could bring about pain and hatred or give rise to fighting. 竞争会带来痛苦、仇恨，或者引起争斗。 来自互联网

15 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

16 ironic   

adj.讽刺的，有讽刺意味的，出乎意料的

参考例句：

• That is a summary and ironic end.那是一个具有概括性和讽刺意味的结局。
• People used to call me Mr Popularity at high school,but they were being ironic.人们中学时常把我称作“万人迷先生”，但他们是在挖苦我。

17 corrupt   

v.贿赂，收买；adj.腐败的，贪污的

参考例句：

• The newspaper alleged the mayor's corrupt practices.那家报纸断言市长有舞弊行为。
• This judge is corrupt.这个法官贪污。

18 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

19 escalating   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的现在分词 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• The cost of living is escalating. 生活费用在迅速上涨。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The cost of living is escalating in the country. 这个国家的生活费用在上涨。 来自辞典例句

20 foment   

v.煽动，助长

参考例句：

• The rebels know the truth and seek to foment revolution.那些叛乱者知道真相，并且想办法来挑起革命。
• That's an attempt to foment discord.这是挑拨。

21 remarkable   

adj.显著的，异常的，非凡的，值得注意的

参考例句：

• She has made remarkable headway in her writing skills.她在写作技巧方面有了长足进步。
• These cars are remarkable for the quietness of their engines.这些汽车因发动机没有噪音而不同凡响。