VOA常速英语2008年-Investors in Asia Worry About Fallout from Poss

By Naomi Martig
Hong Kong
21 March 2008

Japan's Nikkei Index rose for the third straight day following gains overnight on Wall Street and a week of fluctuation¹ amid global worries about a possible U.S. recession. As Naomi Martig reports from Hong Kong, financial analysts² say concern is steadily³ growing among investors⁴ and officials in Asia about just how damaging the predicted recession will be.

It has been a very volatile⁵ week for global stocks. At its low points, China's main stock index in Shanghai dropped to its lowest level in nine months, share prices in Hong Kong and Japan both witnessed plummets⁶ of more than three-percent, and the dollar continued to hit below that psychological 100-yen mark.

There were also short-lived surges. Stocks in Asia rallied on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate cut of 75 basis points and two heavyweight U.S. investment banks, Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs reported better-than-expected results.

But analysts say expectations of continued decline in the U.S. economy are likely to cause a further deterioration⁷ of market value because investors in Asia are expecting a possible U.S. recession to last a long time.

Chris Leung, a senior Asia Economist⁸ with the bank DBS in Hong Kong, says investors and officials in Asia are worried about what impact a U.S. recession can have on inflationary pressure in the region.

"Because the persistent⁹ weakness is making everything expensive and Asia central banks' interest rate is mostly tied up with the U.S.," he said. "So when U.S. interest rate goes down, Asia central banks have to follow despite rising inflationary pressure."

Low interest rates can accelerate inflation because companies and consumers are willing to spend more and take on more debt when rates are low.

Leung says Asia could see a slowdown in real growth in economic activities, most likely in the external trade sector¹⁰. He says if a U.S. recession becomes real, officials in Asia are going to have to find the right balance between growth acceleration¹¹ and inflation.

"If you believe the U.S. is going to weaken a lot further from now, then… the ultimate impact will be inflationary, because of dramatic slowdown in new economic activities," said Leung. "But on the other hand, if you think that the U.S. dollar has a lot more to fall from the current level, then everything priced in U.S. dollar in this part of the world will become even more expensive."

Leung says he believes the U.S. is already in the early stages of recession, and that it could last up to two years.

Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve announced emergency measures to ease the liquidity¹² crisis in credit markets. The banking¹³ system crisis in the U.S. largely began after subprime mortgages were made to homebuyers with poor credit records. Many of them now are struggling to pay their debts because interest rates rose and property values fell.

Japan's Nikkei Index closed less than one percent higher Friday. Most Asian stock markets are closed through Monday for holiday.

1 fluctuation   

n.(物价的)波动，涨落；周期性变动；脉动

参考例句：

• The erratic fluctuation of market prices are in consequence of unstable economy.经济波动致使市场物价忽起忽落。
• Early and adequate drainage is essential if fluctuation occurs.有波动感时，应及早地充分引流。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 steadily   

adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地

参考例句：

• The scope of man's use of natural resources will steadily grow.人类利用自然资源的广度将日益扩大。
• Our educational reform was steadily led onto the correct path.我们的教学改革慢慢上轨道了。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

6 plummets   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• As a result, blood sugar plummets, sometimes even going below the baseline. 结果，血糖浓度迅速掉落，有时甚至落于基线之下。 来自互联网
• State and local governments could continue to back as tax revenue plummets. 由于税收的直线下降，州和地方政府可能继续削减支出。 来自互联网

7 deterioration   

n.退化；恶化；变坏

参考例句：

• Mental and physical deterioration both occur naturally with age. 随着年龄的增长，心智和体力自然衰退。
• The car's bodywork was already showing signs of deterioration. 这辆车的车身已经显示出了劣化迹象。

8 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

9 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

10 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

11 acceleration   

n.加速，加速度

参考例句：

• All spacemen must be able to bear acceleration.所有太空人都应能承受加速度。
• He has also called for an acceleration of political reforms.他同时呼吁加快政治改革的步伐。

12 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

13 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。