VOA常速英语2008年-Economists Debate How Far US Economy Will Fall

By Michael Bowman
Washington
23 March 2008

Polls show overwhelming numbers of Americans believe the U.S. economy is in a recession, although government statistics have yet to show a period of negative growth that meets the technical definition. What is known is that the American economy has slowed dramatically, and that the U.S. housing and credit markets are in turmoil¹ while the dollar plummets² and inflationary pressures are on the rise. VOA's Michael Bowman reports from Washington that there is little consensus³ among top economists⁴ about how bad the situation is.

Recent months have seen a torrent⁵ of troubling economic news, and last week was no exception. The continuing sub-prime mortgage crisis pushed one of America's largest investment banks to the brink⁶ of insolvency⁷, saved only by a government-facilitated buyout.

U.S. industrial production continued to decline, while oil prices remained above $100 a barrel. The U.S. central bank twice cut interest rates to ease credit and spur economic growth, but even those measures seemed to reinforce the view that the U.S. economy is faltering⁸.

"I think it is very likely we are in a recession right now. I think it is a certainty that we are in something that is going to feel like a recession to most people," said Lawrence Summers, who served as Treasury⁹ Secretary during the Clinton administration.  "I hope that it will be easily contained and we will see a return to expansion. I do not think, after all that has happened in the financial markets, we can be certain that that is the case."

Summers was speaking on the Fox News Sunday television program. Also appearing on Fox was Glenn Hubbard, a former head of President Bush's Council of Economic Advisors¹⁰. Hubbard says current conditions are grim, but he believes America's economic slowdown will be brief.

"We have clearly downshifted in the past year from GDP growing above three percent to probably one to 1.5 percent for this year. The labor¹¹ market has begun to deteriorate¹². The credit crunch¹³ is a very big deal for the economy," said Hubbard. "Having said all that, I do expect a recovery in the latter part of this year, fueled in no small part by monetary¹⁴ policy actions and fiscal¹⁵ policy actions."

Earlier this year, the federal government enacted¹⁶ an economic stimulus¹⁷ package that will provide most middle and low-income taxpayers¹⁸ with a rebate¹⁹ check, as well as tax relief to spur business investment. The Bush administration has also encouraged mortgage lenders to renegotiate loan terms with financially-strapped borrowers facing foreclosure on their homes.

Across the United States, tens of thousands of homeowners have been forced out of their homes because, as their mortgages re-set at higher interest rates, they were unable to make the monthly payments.

Some in Washington are calling for more aggressive action to strengthen government oversight²⁰ and regulation of the credit markets, not only to soften²¹ the blow of the current crisis, but to stop the wholesale²² issuing of risky²³ loans, blamed for the current mortgage mess.

Democratic Senator Charles Schumer of New York says inaction by President Bush has made a bad economy worse.

"Had the administration acted more proactively earlier, particularly about the housing crisis, when many of us were asking them to, we would not have gotten up to this point," he said.

Schumer was speaking on ABC's This Week program. But Republican Senator John Kyl of Arizona says Democrats²⁴ are far from blameless when it comes to America's housing and credit woes²⁵.

"Of course it was not the Bush administration as much as it was Democrats in Congress who were pushing the lending institutions to get out there and lend more money, even to unqualified buyers," said Kyl.

In coming days, new economic data will be released on U.S. home sales, consumer spending, and the gross domestic product. The GDP figure could provide significant insight as to the severity of America's economic hardship.

1 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

2 plummets   

v.垂直落下，骤然跌落( plummet的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• As a result, blood sugar plummets, sometimes even going below the baseline. 结果，血糖浓度迅速掉落，有时甚至落于基线之下。 来自互联网
• State and local governments could continue to back as tax revenue plummets. 由于税收的直线下降，州和地方政府可能继续削减支出。 来自互联网

3 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 torrent   

n.激流，洪流；爆发，(话语等的)连发

参考例句：

• The torrent scoured a channel down the hillside. 急流沿着山坡冲出了一条沟。
• Her pent-up anger was released in a torrent of words.她压抑的愤怒以滔滔不绝的话爆发了出来。

6 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

7 insolvency   

n.无力偿付，破产

参考例句：

• The company is on the verge of insolvency.该公司快要破产了。
• Normal insolvency procedures should not be applied to banks.通常的破产程序不应当适用于银行。

8 faltering   

犹豫的，支吾的，蹒跚的

参考例句：

• The economy shows no signs of faltering. 经济没有衰退的迹象。
• I canfeel my legs faltering. 我感到我的腿在颤抖。

9 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

10 advisors   

n.顾问，劝告者( advisor的名词复数 )；（指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• The governors felt that they were being strung along by their advisors. 地方长官感到他们一直在受顾问们的愚弄。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• We will consult together with advisors about her education. 我们将一起和专家商议她的教育事宜。 来自互联网

11 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

12 deteriorate   

v.变坏；恶化；退化

参考例句：

• Do you think relations between China and Japan will continue to deteriorate?你认为中日关系会继续恶化吗？
• He held that this would only cause the situation to deteriorate further.他认为，这只会使局势更加恶化。

13 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

14 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

15 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

16 enacted   

制定（法律），通过（法案）( enact的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• legislation enacted by parliament 由议会通过的法律
• Outside in the little lobby another scene was begin enacted. 外面的小休息室里又是另一番景象。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

17 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

18 taxpayers   

纳税人，纳税的机构( taxpayer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Finance for education comes from taxpayers. 教育经费来自纳税人。
• She was declaiming against the waste of the taxpayers' money. 她慷慨陈词猛烈抨击对纳税人金钱的浪费。

19 rebate   

v./n.折扣，回扣，退款；vt.给...回扣，给...打折扣

参考例句：

• You can claim a rebate on your tax.你可以要求退回部分税款。
• Customers are to benefit from a rebate on their electricity bills.顾客将从他们的电费退费中得到实惠。

20 oversight   

n.勘漏，失察，疏忽

参考例句：

• I consider this a gross oversight on your part.我把这件事看作是你的一大疏忽。
• Your essay was not marked through an oversight on my part.由于我的疏忽你的文章没有打分。

21 soften   

v.(使)变柔软；(使)变柔和

参考例句：

• Plastics will soften when exposed to heat.塑料适当加热就可以软化。
• This special cream will help to soften up our skin.这种特殊的护肤霜有助于使皮肤变得柔软。

22 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

23 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

24 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

25 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。