VOA常速英语2008年-Zimbabwe Analysts Predict Easy Mugabe Victory

By Peta Thornycroft
Harare
28 March 2008

Analysts¹ loyal to the ruling ZANU-PF at the University of Zimbabwe's political science department have predicted that President Robert Mugabe will easily win a new term in Saturday's election. Peta Thornycroft reports from Harare that the prediction comes as Mr. Mugabe faces his stiffest competition yet, from two powerful candidates.

In the violent 2002 presidential election Mr. Mugabe won the vote with a 52 percent majority.

The run up to Saturday's voting has been mostly peaceful and there has been a resurgence² of popularity for main opposition³ leader Morgan Tsvangirai as well as rejection⁴ of ZANU-PF in several key rural areas, but the prediction in the state controlled daily, The Herald⁵, is that Mr. Mugabe will win by 57 percent this time.

The researchers from the political science department at the University of Zimbabwe are openly supportive of ZANU-PF.

The department's chairman Joseph Kurebwa also predicted that the now seriously divided ZANU-PF will also win more than two thirds of parliamentary, senatorial and local government seats in voting on Saturday.

He said his department conducted interviews with more than 10,000 people around the country.

However, founding legal secretary of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, David Coltart, disputes claims of Mr. Mugabe's continued popularity. He says in the southern Matabeleland provinces Mr. Mugabe is trailing badly.

Matabeleland accounts for about 20 percent of the vote.

"What is absolutely clear is that Robert Mugabe is in enormous difficulty in Matabeleland," he said. "At the very least, the hardcore support of ZANU-PF that is provided to him by the old ZIPRA war veterans, I think is gone. What we don't know is whether Simba Makoni or Morgan Tsvangirai will benefit from that swing."

It does appear though that in Harare, and some of the cities and suburban⁷ areas in the North and East of the country, that Morgan Tsvangirai has benefited more from that than independent presidential candidate Simba Makoni.

Complaints about flawed election practices have again surfaced. David Coltart says, in particular, the voter's roll has many names of people who are long dead.

"We are very concerned about the voters roll," he noted⁸. "The voters roll is seriously deficient⁹ in a variety of respects, there are many dead people on it. The voters roll that I have got for example in my constituency is missing a whole chunk¹⁰ of names, all the surnames between C and M are completely missing."

Coltart has also expressed concern about the Zimbabwe electoral commission, the body that conducts the election, because the person in charge of that appears to be partisan¹¹.

He says the police have also been partisan in the past, and of course Robert Mugabe has made it very clear in recent statements that he simply will not allow the opposition to win.

In rural areas some voters say openly that they had voted for Mr. Mugabe in the past, but that they are now suffering and will vote for Mr. Tsvangirai in the presidential election.

Zimbabwe has been suffering from hyper-inflation and at least a third of the population is receiving food handouts¹² from the west.

There are more than 9,400 polling stations for Saturday's election. All counting has to be done at the polling station and those results forwarded to a central command center in Harare for the presidential poll.

Tendai Biti, Morgan Tsvangirai's secretary-general says he fears this is where the main rigging could take place, the transfer of vote counts from deep rural areas to Harare.

Officials from Mr. Mugabe's Cabinet say he is a democrat⁶ and will accept the results, even if he should lose.

1 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

2 resurgence   

n.再起，复活，再现

参考例句：

• A resurgence of his grief swept over Nim.悲痛又涌上了尼姆的心头。
• Police say drugs traffickers are behind the resurgence of violence.警方说毒贩是暴力活动重新抬头的罪魁祸首。

3 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

4 rejection   

n.拒绝，被拒，抛弃，被弃

参考例句：

• He decided not to approach her for fear of rejection.他因怕遭拒绝决定不再去找她。
• The rejection plunged her into the dark depths of despair.遭到拒绝使她陷入了绝望的深渊。

5 herald   

vt.预示...的来临，预告，宣布，欢迎

参考例句：

• In England, the cuckoo is the herald of spring.在英国杜鹃鸟是报春的使者。
• Dawn is the herald of day.曙光是白昼的先驱。

6 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

7 suburban   

adj.城郊的，在郊区的

参考例句：

• Suburban shopping centers were springing up all over America. 效区的商业中心在美国如雨后春笋般地兴起。
• There's a lot of good things about suburban living.郊区生活是有许多优点。

8 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

9 deficient   

adj.不足的，不充份的，有缺陷的

参考例句：

• The crops are suffering from deficient rain.庄稼因雨量不足而遭受损害。
• I always have been deficient in selfconfidence and decision.我向来缺乏自信和果断。

10 chunk   

n.厚片，大块，相当大的部分（数量）

参考例句：

• They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.他们必须当心大块浮冰。
• The company owns a chunk of farmland near Gatwick Airport.该公司拥有盖特威克机场周边的大片农田。

11 partisan   

adj.党派性的；游击队的；n.游击队员；党徒

参考例句：

• In their anger they forget all the partisan quarrels.愤怒之中，他们忘掉一切党派之争。
• The numerous newly created partisan detachments began working slowly towards that region.许多新建的游击队都开始慢慢地向那里移动。

12 handouts   

救济品( handout的名词复数 )； 施舍物； 印刷品； 讲义

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts. 士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Even after losing his job, he was too proud to accept handouts. 甚至在失去工作后，他仍然很骄傲，不愿接受施舍。