VOA常速英语2008年-Iraq War Incurs Hefty Price Tag

By Gary Thomas
Washington
14 April 2008
 

The U.S. war in Iraq has now lasted more than five years.  Thousands of American soldiers and Iraqis have been killed or wounded in the conflict.  In addition to the tragic¹ human toll², the war has also run up a large price tag for the United States.  But, as VOA correspondent Gary Thomas tells us, determining the exact cost in dollars and cents is both elusive³ and politically sensitive.

The controversy⁴ over the war in Iraq has taken on a fresh dimension, as economists⁶ and politicians voice growing concern about just how much it is costing taxpayers⁷ in real dollars and cents. But economists say pinning down exact figures is a difficult exercise, and there is sharp disagreement over the real costs.

Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist⁵, says the war cost is already past one trillion dollars - that's "trillion" with a "t" - and will eventually climb to $3 trillion or more.

"This is our estimate, conservative estimate, of what the total cost of the war will be,” Stiglitz said. "That includes what we've already spent, and what we will spend, for instance, for the disability care and health benefits of our returning veterans. Forty percent of them will be coming back with disabilities, and many of them will need a lifetime of care."

Other estimates, such as those from the Congressional Budget Office, are lower.  But all estimates agree the cost will be at least $1 trillion - a staggering figure, and one that is very difficult to grasp. 

To put it in rough perspective, if we were to go back one trillion seconds in time, that would be a prehistoric⁸ 31,688 years ago.

This is a far cry from what the Bush Administration was saying before the 2003 invasion. Appearing on ABC television's This Week, then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld dismissed any contrary cost estimates. "The Office of Management and Budget estimated it would be something under $50 billion," stated Rumsfeld. Asked about outside estimates of up to $300 billion, he responded, "Ugh. Baloney."

Why were the original estimates so far off the mark?  Stiglitz and other analysts¹⁰ say the main reason is that the Bush Administration never expected the war to drag on as long as it has.  "I think that as they envisaged¹¹ the war, they had this what you might call a fantasy that the major problem would be sweeping¹² up the garlands, rose petals¹³ from the garlands, that would be thrown around the necks of our liberating¹⁴ soldiers," said Stiglitz.

The White House does not dispute the new Stiglitz estimates, although a spokeswoman says, depending on circumstances, it is hard to anticipate future costs of the war.

The different estimates now being floated underscore the continuing debate over future costs as the war continues.

Peter Orszag is director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which prepares budgetary estimates for Congress. He says Stiglitz's estimates are high because they factor in more than just direct costs to the federal budget.

"There's a different concept. They're trying to measure a much broader concept of costs,” Orszag said. “And I should say, I'm a friend and indeed co-author of Joe Stiglitz's, but I have to say on this, there's a lot of controversy surrounding some of those other measures." 

In particular, Orszag says, Stiglitz overstates the costs of additional health care for veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Steve Kosiak, an analyst⁹ for the nonpartisan Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis, says interest payments on the extra debt incurred¹⁵ by the war also contribute to the higher estimates.

"We basically have responded to this war by putting it on our national credit card; by taking out loans, borrowing, to pay for the operation.  That is unlike past military operations where we often raised taxes, at least somewhat, and cut back other programs to pay for the operation. And those interest costs can be substantial. It's hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming decade," Kosiak added.

Military families have already paid a high price in the lost or shattered lives of sons and daughters, but analysts say the weight of the economic burden of the Iraq war will in all likelihood be passed on to a new generation.

1 tragic   

adj.悲剧的，悲剧性的，悲惨的

参考例句：

• The effect of the pollution on the beaches is absolutely tragic.污染海滩后果可悲。
• Charles was a man doomed to tragic issues.查理是个注定不得善终的人。

2 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

3 elusive   

adj.难以表达(捉摸)的；令人困惑的；逃避的

参考例句：

• Try to catch the elusive charm of the original in translation.翻译时设法把握住原文中难以捉摸的风韵。
• Interpol have searched all the corners of the earth for the elusive hijackers.国际刑警组织已在世界各地搜查在逃的飞机劫持者。

4 controversy   

n.争论，辩论，争吵

参考例句：

• That is a fact beyond controversy.那是一个无可争论的事实。
• We ran the risk of becoming the butt of every controversy.我们要冒使自己在所有的纷争中都成为众矢之的的风险。

5 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

6 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 taxpayers   

纳税人，纳税的机构( taxpayer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Finance for education comes from taxpayers. 教育经费来自纳税人。
• She was declaiming against the waste of the taxpayers' money. 她慷慨陈词猛烈抨击对纳税人金钱的浪费。

8 prehistoric   

adj.（有记载的）历史以前的，史前的，古老的

参考例句：

• They have found prehistoric remains.他们发现了史前遗迹。
• It was rather like an exhibition of prehistoric electronic equipment.这儿倒像是在展览古老的电子设备。

9 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

10 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

11 envisaged   

想像，设想( envisage的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He envisaged an old age of loneliness and poverty. 他面对着一个孤独而贫困的晚年。
• Henry Ford envisaged an important future for the motor car. 亨利·福特为汽车设想了一个远大前程。

12 sweeping   

adj.范围广大的，一扫无遗的

参考例句：

• The citizens voted for sweeping reforms.公民投票支持全面的改革。
• Can you hear the wind sweeping through the branches?你能听到风掠过树枝的声音吗？

13 petals   

n.花瓣( petal的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• white petals tinged with blue 略带蓝色的白花瓣
• The petals of many flowers expand in the sunshine. 许多花瓣在阳光下开放。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

14 liberating   

解放，释放( liberate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Revolution means liberating the productive forces. 革命就是为了解放生产力。
• They had already taken on their shoulders the burden of reforming society and liberating mankind. 甚至在这些集会聚谈中，他们就已经夸大地把改革社会、解放人群的责任放在自己的肩头了。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）

15 incurred   

[医]招致的，遭受的； incur的过去式

参考例句：

• She had incurred the wrath of her father by marrying without his consent 她未经父亲同意就结婚，使父亲震怒。
• We will reimburse any expenses incurred. 我们将付还所有相关费用。