VOA常速英语2008年-'Perfect Storm' of Factors Driving Up Oil Price

By Michael Bowman
Washington
23 April 2008

Since the beginning of the decade, gasoline prices in the United States have roughly tripled, while the global price of a barrel of oil has risen even more. The trend has inflicted¹ pain on consumers and petroleum²-dependent industries while massively boosting the fortunes of oil-producing nations and petroleum companies. Why are oil prices so high? VOA's Michael Bowman reports from Washington, the answers vary greatly.

American motorists appear to grow more dismayed every time they go to a gasoline station. The average price for a gallon of fuel rose nearly six cents in the past week alone (about 1.3 cents per liter), and is more than 50 cents higher than a year ago (about 12 cents higher per liter).

While consumers complain, others are pointing fingers.

For Ray Carbone, who heads the New York-based energy trading firm Paramount³ Options, the issue boils down to three words: supply and demand. He notes that the world is consuming more fossil fuel each day, led by large, rapidly developing countries like China and India, at a time when global oil production is stagnant⁴.

"The demand numbers coming out of Asia, although slower than a year or two ago, have certainly put into the fore⁵ [shown] that the U.S. is not the big, big driver in demand that it used to be," Carbone said. "And that seems to be what people are having trouble coming to grips with, I think."

Despite rising oil consumption, the world's largest oil cartel, OPEC, has resisted calls to boost production. But OPEC officials are offering no apologies, and scoff⁶ at the theory that inadequate⁷ supply to meet rising demand lies at the heart of today's elevated oil prices. OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri.

"The price has nothing to do with supply and demand," he said. "Other factors affect the price. OPEC will not hesitate to increase production if we think the higher price is because of a shortage of oil in the market. But we are confident that it is not a shortage of oil; it is something else."

Who is right in this debate, the energy traders or OPEC?

They both are, according to Steve Hanke, professor of applied⁸ economics at Johns Hopkins University and a senior fellow at the Washington-based Cato Institute. Hanke says, without a doubt, current demand for oil exceeds supply.

"We really had a surge in demand, and a lot of this occurred as a result of rapid world growth," he said. "World growth has been increasing at a fairly high rate in the last three or four years. And to some extent it has been energy-intensive in use, because we have had a fairly large increase in the middle class in a lot of these developing countries."

But other factors contribute as well. Hanke says amid uncertainty⁹ and volatility¹⁰ in global stock markets, many investors¹² have poured money into commodities such as oil. This trend, combined with investor¹¹ assumptions that oil prices will remain high, have helped boost prices further, which has in turn fed more investor speculation¹³ in the market.

Hanke says the weak U.S. dollar does not help matters.

"Twenty-five percent of the increase in oil prices is strictly¹⁴ due to the fact that the dollar has gone down by 25 percent, because oil all over the world is priced in dollars," he said.

Taken together, Hanke says, these and other factors have made for a "perfect storm" that relentlessly¹⁵ drives up oil prices with no end in sight.

What can be done about it? Hanke says oil prices would moderate if supply were increased and world demand leveled off or subsided¹⁶. He says prices would also be lower if oil-producing nations reversed the trend towards state monopoly control of their petroleum sectors¹⁷, if the U.S. government stopped stockpiling emergency oil for its Strategic Petroleum Reserve program, or if the U.S. dollar were to strengthen.

For that last suggestion to become reality, however, U.S. interest rates would likely have to rise, something America's central bank is unlikely to tolerate so long as the U.S. economy remains¹⁸ weak. Ironically, many economists¹⁹ blame America's anemic economic performance, in part, on higher fuel prices.

1 inflicted   

把…强加给，使承受，遭受( inflict的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They inflicted a humiliating defeat on the home team. 他们使主队吃了一场很没面子的败仗。
• Zoya heroically bore the torture that the Fascists inflicted upon her. 卓娅英勇地承受法西斯匪徒加在她身上的酷刑。

2 petroleum   

n.原油，石油

参考例句：

• The Government of Iran advanced the price of petroleum last week.上星期伊朗政府提高了石油价格。
• The purpose of oil refinery is to refine crude petroleum.炼油厂的主要工作是提炼原油。

3 paramount   

a.最重要的，最高权力的

参考例句：

• My paramount object is to save the Union and destroy slavery.我的最高目标是拯救美国，摧毁奴隶制度。
• Nitrogen is of paramount importance to life on earth.氮对地球上的生命至关重要。

4 stagnant   

adj.不流动的，停滞的，不景气的

参考例句：

• Due to low investment,industrial output has remained stagnant.由于投资少，工业生产一直停滞不前。
• Their national economy is stagnant.他们的国家经济停滞不前。

5 fore   

adv.在前面；adj.先前的；在前部的；n.前部

参考例句：

• Your seat is in the fore part of the aircraft.你的座位在飞机的前部。
• I have the gift of fore knowledge.我能够未卜先知。

6 scoff   

n.嘲笑，笑柄，愚弄；v.嘲笑，嘲弄，愚弄，狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• You are not supposed to scoff at religion.你不该嘲弄宗教。
• He was the scoff of the town.他成为全城的笑柄。

7 inadequate   

adj.(for,to)不充足的，不适当的

参考例句：

• The supply is inadequate to meet the demand.供不应求。
• She was inadequate to the demands that were made on her.她还无力满足对她提出的各项要求。

8 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

9 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

10 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

11 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

12 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

13 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

14 strictly   

adv.严厉地，严格地；严密地

参考例句：

• His doctor is dieting him strictly.他的医生严格规定他的饮食。
• The guests were seated strictly in order of precedence.客人严格按照地位高低就座。

15 relentlessly   

adv.不屈不挠地；残酷地；不间断

参考例句：

• The African sun beat relentlessly down on his aching head. 非洲的太阳无情地照射在他那发痛的头上。
• He pursued her relentlessly, refusing to take 'no' for an answer. 他锲而不舍地追求她，拒不接受“不”的回答。

16 subsided   

v.（土地）下陷（因在地下采矿）( subside的过去式和过去分词 )；减弱；下降至较低或正常水平；一下子坐在椅子等上

参考例句：

• After the heavy rains part of the road subsided. 大雨过后，部分公路塌陷了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• By evening the storm had subsided and all was quiet again. 傍晚， 暴风雨已经过去，四周开始沉寂下来。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

17 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

18 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

19 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》