VOA标准英语2008年-African Economists Lower Expectations As Price

By Peter Heinlein
Addis Ababa
30 May 2008

Economists¹ are rapidly lowering growth forecasts for Africa and urging donor² countries and lending agencies to increase assistance in light of the recent sharp increases in commodity prices. As VOA's Peter Heinlein reports from Addis Ababa, the authors of a just-released economic snapshot are warning African policymakers to be cautious as they plan for the future.

The African Economic Outlook report forecasts a nearly six percent growth in the continent's Gross Domestic Product this year, continuing through 2009. The report was prepared jointly⁴ by the African Development Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa.

But that report was written in February. At a news conference Friday, co-author Leonce Ndikumana, the UNECA's chief of macroeconomic analysis admitted that the rapid price hikes in the past three months, combined with poor rainfall in many predominantly agricultural African regions have changed the picture considerably⁵.

"We started working on forecasting Africa's economic performance…. These figures were for October, we were forecasting 6.1 percent for Africa, but then when we were finalizing⁶ the figures in February, many things had happened," he said. "So the model gave us much lower figures. I would not be surprised if we did it again now we would find much lower figures."

Ndikumana says conditions have deteriorated⁸ so rapidly over the past three months that an economic forecast done today might estimate Africa's growth as low as five percent over the coming year and a half. But he says even that reduced figure is healthy.

"Even if we have to revise the forecast, it would still give us a figure above five percent, which is good, by historical standards for African countries," he said. "Now if the oil prices keep going up...if food prices keep going up, for net food importers that's going to be a challenge. And if the rain if the weather is erratic⁹ as it has been, we would even reduce the forecast."

Ndikumana cautions Africa's economic policymakers, especially those in non-oil producing countries, to be cautious in planning for the coming months. He also urges donor countries and lending agencies to be ready to increase levels of assistance if conditions deteriorate⁷ further.

"African policy makers³ should be concerned about some key developments, including high oil prices, high energy/food prices and the instability of the weather, especially because of the predominance of agriculture," he said. "What we advocate for is for continued prudent¹⁰ policies at the national level, but we advocate for special assistance from the donor community, especially for oil importing countries, and net food importers."

There was fresh evidence Friday of the crippling effect of high oil prices on non-oil producing countries. Ethiopia's central bank reported the trade deficit¹¹ had expanded 15 percent to $1.3 billion in the quarter ending in January. That deficit is likely to widen, given the sharp price increase in recent weeks.

Western economists and diplomats¹² say the International Monetary¹³ Fund is preparing to offer Ethiopia a bridge loan of more than one billion dollars to help it through a foreign exchange crunch¹⁴. News agencies have reported that imports of oil and other commodities have pushed Ethiopia's foreign exchange reserves down to worrisome levels.

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 donor   

n.捐献者；赠送人；(组织、器官等的)供体

参考例句：

• In these cases,the recipient usually takes care of the donor afterwards.在这类情况下，接受捐献者以后通常会照顾捐赠者。
• The Doctor transplanted the donor's heart to Mike's chest cavity.医生将捐赠者的心脏移植进麦克的胸腔。

3 makers   

n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式）

参考例句：

• The makers of the product assured us that there had been no sacrifice of quality. 这一产品的制造商向我们保证说他们没有牺牲质量。
• The makers are about to launch out a new product. 制造商们马上要生产一种新产品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 jointly   

ad.联合地，共同地

参考例句：

• Tenants are jointly and severally liable for payment of the rent. 租金由承租人共同且分别承担。
• She owns the house jointly with her husband. 她和丈夫共同拥有这所房子。

5 considerably   

adv.极大地；相当大地；在很大程度上

参考例句：

• The economic situation has changed considerably.经济形势已发生了相当大的变化。
• The gap has narrowed considerably.分歧大大缩小了。

6 finalizing   

vt.完成（finalize的现在分词形式）

参考例句：

• You may edit registered information any time during the finalizing period. 您可以在规定期限内随时编辑修改注册资料。 来自互联网
• Natsun Trimming & Ironing, Finalizing the Perfection. 40南山整烫，完美在此定格。 来自互联网

7 deteriorate   

v.变坏；恶化；退化

参考例句：

• Do you think relations between China and Japan will continue to deteriorate?你认为中日关系会继续恶化吗？
• He held that this would only cause the situation to deteriorate further.他认为，这只会使局势更加恶化。

8 deteriorated   

恶化，变坏( deteriorate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Her health deteriorated rapidly, and she died shortly afterwards. 她的健康状况急剧恶化，不久便去世了。
• His condition steadily deteriorated. 他的病情恶化，日甚一日。

9 erratic   

adj.古怪的，反复无常的，不稳定的

参考例句：

• The old man had always been cranky and erratic.那老头儿性情古怪,反复无常。
• The erratic fluctuation of market prices is in consequence of unstable economy.经济波动致使市场物价忽起忽落。

10 prudent   

adj.谨慎的，有远见的，精打细算的

参考例句：

• A prudent traveller never disparages his own country.聪明的旅行者从不贬低自己的国家。
• You must school yourself to be modest and prudent.你要学会谦虚谨慎。

11 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

12 diplomats   

n.外交官( diplomat的名词复数 )；有手腕的人，善于交际的人

参考例句：

• These events led to the expulsion of senior diplomats from the country. 这些事件导致一些高级外交官被驱逐出境。
• The court has no jurisdiction over foreign diplomats living in this country. 法院对驻本国的外交官无裁判权。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

14 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。