VOA标准英语2008年-Polls Suggest Close Race Between Obama, McCain

By Jim Malone
Washington
20 June 2008

Recent public opinion polls in the U.S. presidential race give Democrat¹ Barack Obama a lead over Republican John McCain. But the lead is less than expected given some Democratic advantages this election year. VOA National correspondent Jim Malone has more from Washington.
　

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama listens during a meeting of Democratic Governors at the Chicago History Museum in Chicago, 20 June 2008

MARGIN⁷-TOP: 0px; MARGIN-BOTTOM: 0px">Recent surveys give Senator Obama a lead of between three and six percentage points over Senator McCain with the election a little more than four months away.

Democrats² are encouraged about their chances of winning back the White House this year after eight years of Republican control under President Bush.

But some Republicans are pleasantly surprised at the closeness of the race given the public's general unhappiness with the economy, the war in Iraq and Mr. Bush's tenure³.

Quinnipiac University pollster Clay Richards says a large number of voters apparently⁴ have already made up their minds about which candidate to support in November.

"Between 75 and 80 percent of voters said that their minds are made up," he noted⁵. "So, the campaign, at this very early point, may come down to a battle for about 20 to 25 percent of the voters, with the rest having already committed."

A recent Quinnipiac poll in three crucial battleground states in November found that economic concerns were pushing more working class voters to support Obama. Those states were Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, all expected to be competitive in November.

Obama had trouble winning working class support in his primary battles with former rival Hillary Clinton, but pollster Clay Richards says he appears to be making some inroads.

"Obama is doing better among them than other Democratic candidates have done in the past," he added. "And if he maintains this kind of lead, or this kind of balance among blue collar whites, he will probably carry these three states."
　

Republican presidential candidate John McCain addresses the Economic Club of Canada, in Ottawa, Canada, 20 June 2008

Republican John McCain finds himself in the difficult position of trying to succeed an unpopular president from his own party at a time when Americans are worried about the economy and rising fuel prices and believe the country is headed in the wrong direction.

McCain has staked his presidential hopes on the belief that Americans would prefer victory in the war in Iraq to a hasty withdrawal⁶ of U.S. troops.

Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown says Americans have concluded the Iraq war was not worth the cost, but he adds that they remain divided on what to do next.

"By a 2-1 margin, voters think the war was a mistake," he noted. "But when we asked them where do we want to go from here and give them two choices. One, the McCain position of no fixed⁸ timetable for withdrawal and make the decision based on the security situation on the ground, and the Obama approach of a fixed timetable, they are basically split down the middle."

Senator McCain will emphasize his experience in the military and in Congress in the campaign, and will argue that Obama has too little experience in foreign policy and national security matters.

Brookings Institution political scholar Thomas Mann says Senator Obama has some work to do in that area.

"Some people have doubts about his qualifications as commander in chief," he explained. "So, he has a hurdle⁹ to clear, a threshold to reach that he is trustworthy on matters pertaining¹⁰ to national security."

Another factor that could keep the election close is Senator McCain's proven appeal to moderate and independent voters, who often tip the election in favor of one candidate over another.

Democrats argue that McCain's close support of President Bush's policy on Iraq would lead to what they call a third Bush term.

But analyst¹¹ John Fortier of the American Enterprise Institute contends McCain may be able to counter some of those expected Democratic attacks.

"McCain does have the ability to distance himself from Bush, though, more than other Republicans," he said. "He is not somebody with a newly found moderation. McCain goes a long way back where he has been something of a maverick¹² and opposing Bush, so I think he is going to be more able to resist that sort of criticism."

McCain also faces a lingering challenge in trying to shore up support among conservative Republicans. Some conservatives distrust McCain and have been unhappy in the past when he has disagreed with President Bush and been critical of the Republican Party.

1 democrat   

n.民主主义者，民主人士；民主党党员

参考例句：

• The Democrat and the Public criticized each other.民主党人和共和党人互相攻击。
• About two years later,he was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter.大约两年后，他被民主党人杰米卡特击败。

2 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 tenure   

n.终身职位；任期；(土地)保有权，保有期

参考例句：

• He remained popular throughout his tenure of the office of mayor.他在担任市长的整个任期内都深得民心。
• Land tenure is a leading political issue in many parts of the world.土地的保有权在世界很多地区是主要的政治问题。

4 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。

5 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

6 withdrawal   

n.取回，提款；撤退，撤军；收回，撤销

参考例句：

• The police were forced to make a tactical withdrawal.警方被迫进行战术撤退。
• They insisted upon a withdrawal of the statement and a public apology.他们坚持要收回那些话并公开道歉。

7 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

8 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

9 hurdle   

n.跳栏，栏架；障碍，困难；vi.进行跨栏赛

参考例句：

• The weather will be the biggest hurdle so I have to be ready.天气将会是最大的障碍，所以我必须要作好准备。
• She clocked 11.6 seconds for the 80 metre hurdle.八十米跳栏赛跑她跑了十一秒六。

10 pertaining   

与…有关系的，附属…的，为…固有的(to)

参考例句：

• Living conditions are vastly different from those pertaining in their country of origin. 生活条件与他们祖国大不相同。
• The inspector was interested in everything pertaining to the school. 视察员对有关学校的一切都感兴趣。

11 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

12 maverick   

adj.特立独行的；不遵守传统的；n.持异议者，自行其是者

参考例句：

• He's a maverick.He has his own way of thinking about things.他是个特异独行的人。对事情有自己的看法。
• You're a maverick and you'll try anything.你是个爱自行其是的人，样样事情都要尝试一下。