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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
Earlier this week, a global survey of states most at risk of failure named Somalia and Sudan as the top two most unstable1 countries in the world. As VOA correspondent Alisha Ryu reports from our East Africa Bureau in Nairobi, both African countries are embroiled2 in complex internal and external conflicts that are destabilizing neighboring countries and threatening tens of millions of people.
Ethiopian soldiers man a position in Somalia's embattled capital following a fresh outbreak of violence, 17 Jun 2008
Somalia took the top spot in this year's Failed States Index, replacing Sudan, which had held the dubious3 distinction for the past two years.
In the annual survey compiled by the U.S.-based Foreign Policy magazine and independent research organization Fund for Peace, Somalia scored higher than Zimbabwe, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in terms of its vulnerability to violent internal conflict and the deterioration4 of its civil society.
Conflict-resolution specialist Jan van Eck in South Africa says Somalia's problems are particularly challenging, because they are caused by conflicts between numerous groups trying to fill an enormous power vacuum.
The Horn of African country has been without a functioning government since 1991 when factional leaders overthrew5 dictator Mohamed Siad Barre and began fighting amongst themselves for control of the capital Mogadishu and elsewhere.
"In Somalia now, you have two conflicts - between the internal parties themselves and then between some of the internal parties and Ethiopia and America," he noted6. "It is a failing state - you can even say there is no state - where there is just no progress."
In 2004, a U.N.-backed-but-unpopular transitional government was formed in exile, but it was too weak to challenge Somali Islamists, who were rapidly consolidating7 power. By late 2006, the Islamists had control over much of southern and central Somalia and had largely restored order. But hard-line elements in the movement were suspected of strengthening their ties to terror groups.
With the support of the United States, neighboring Ethiopia intervened militarily in December 2006 and ousted8 the Islamists. That sparked an Islamist-led insurgency9 against the unpopular government and Ethiopian forces. The fighting has claimed the lives of thousands and has created what the United Nations calls the worst humanitarian10 disaster in the world.
The crisis has been further complicated by allegations that Eritrea is fighting a proxy11 war against archenemy Ethiopia in Somalia by supporting Islamist rebels. Eritrea denies the charge.
Earlier this month, several moderate figures in the Somali Islamist movement severed12 their ties with Eritrea and signed a U.N.-sponsored peace deal with the interim13 government in Djibouti. The Islamist hardliners, who boycotted14 the talks, rejected the deal and has vowed15 to continue fighting.
Eck says the peace deal effectively isolated16 the hardliners, who are likely to create more instability, not less.
"The group remained outside the meeting and that means whatever agreement has been reached between the government and some of the opposition17 group will not hold," he added. "We still do not have a platform whereby inclusive negotiations18 between the two sides can take place and so the conflict will continue."
An aerial view showing fire at the village of Abyei, Sudan, which is seen mostly burned down, 23 May 2008, and looters roam the village freely, after days of fighting last week
Professor Eric Reeves at Smith College in the United States says second-ranked Sudan suffers from the opposite problem in that there is too much power concentrated in one group in the center. Reeves has been observing the African country for more than a decade.
He says despite a peace agreement in 2005 that ended Sudan's two decade-long civil war between Sudan's Arab-dominated government in Khartoum and African rebels in the south, Khartoum is still refusing to share power and cracking down on anyone trying to challenge its rule.
"The history of Sudan is a history of conflict between the center and the periphery19, between Khartoum and the peripheral20 areas that have been marginalized politically and economically," he explained. "I am not sure how the regime does survive, except by ruthless control of the military and the security apparatus21."
Sudan is Africa's largest country with multiple ethnic22, religious, and socio-economic groups. It is home to three regional conflicts - in the south, west, and east - which pits local rebel groups against the ruling Islamist National Congress Party in Khartoum.
The conflict in the western Darfur region has been the main focus of international attention in recent years. Since rebels rose up against Khartoum in 2003, attacks by government forces and allied23 militias24 have led to the deaths of 200,000 civilians25 and the displacement26 of more than two million others.
Security in Darfur has continued to deteriorate27, exacerbated28 by fighting between rebel factions29 and an escalating30 proxy war between Sudan and neighboring Chad, which is also threatening to destabilize the Central African Republic.
Reeves says Sudan's future as a nation appears uncertain at best.
"We are in a period of time, where there seems to be no exit from a disastrous31 Darfur strategy other than to continue to keep four million people on the verge32 of destruction," he added. "There is no real peace in the east. And we have a great deal of instability in south Sudan with the crisis around Abyei on the border between south and north Sudan. We have to pay attention because this is a very, very important country. It borders nine other countries in Africa and its collapse33 would have an enormous impact from Kenya to Libya to Chad to the Central African Republic."
Five other countries in sub-Saharan Africa - Zimbabwe, Chad, Congo-Kinshasa, Ivory Coast, and the Central African Republic - were among the top 10 most unstable in the Failed States Index.
1 unstable | |
adj.不稳定的,易变的 | |
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2 embroiled | |
adj.卷入的;纠缠不清的 | |
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3 dubious | |
adj.怀疑的,无把握的;有问题的,靠不住的 | |
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4 deterioration | |
n.退化;恶化;变坏 | |
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5 overthrew | |
overthrow的过去式 | |
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6 noted | |
adj.著名的,知名的 | |
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7 consolidating | |
v.(使)巩固, (使)加强( consolidate的现在分词 );(使)合并 | |
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8 ousted | |
驱逐( oust的过去式和过去分词 ); 革职; 罢黜; 剥夺 | |
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9 insurgency | |
n.起义;暴动;叛变 | |
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10 humanitarian | |
n.人道主义者,博爱者,基督凡人论者 | |
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11 proxy | |
n.代理权,代表权;(对代理人的)委托书;代理人 | |
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12 severed | |
v.切断,断绝( sever的过去式和过去分词 );断,裂 | |
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13 interim | |
adj.暂时的,临时的;n.间歇,过渡期间 | |
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14 boycotted | |
抵制,拒绝参加( boycott的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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15 vowed | |
起誓,发誓(vow的过去式与过去分词形式) | |
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16 isolated | |
adj.与世隔绝的 | |
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17 opposition | |
n.反对,敌对 | |
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18 negotiations | |
协商( negotiation的名词复数 ); 谈判; 完成(难事); 通过 | |
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19 periphery | |
n.(圆体的)外面;周围 | |
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20 peripheral | |
adj.周边的,外围的 | |
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21 apparatus | |
n.装置,器械;器具,设备 | |
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22 ethnic | |
adj.人种的,种族的,异教徒的 | |
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23 allied | |
adj.协约国的;同盟国的 | |
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24 militias | |
n.民兵组织,民兵( militia的名词复数 ) | |
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25 civilians | |
平民,百姓( civilian的名词复数 ); 老百姓 | |
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26 displacement | |
n.移置,取代,位移,排水量 | |
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27 deteriorate | |
v.变坏;恶化;退化 | |
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28 exacerbated | |
v.使恶化,使加重( exacerbate的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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29 factions | |
组织中的小派别,派系( faction的名词复数 ) | |
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30 escalating | |
v.(使)逐步升级( escalate的现在分词 );(使)逐步扩大;(使)更高;(使)更大 | |
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31 disastrous | |
adj.灾难性的,造成灾害的;极坏的,很糟的 | |
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32 verge | |
n.边,边缘;v.接近,濒临 | |
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33 collapse | |
vi.累倒;昏倒;倒塌;塌陷 | |
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