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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
By Alan Boswell
Nairobi
20 October 2009
North and South Sudan say they have reached a breakthrough deal over the details of the long planned southern independence referendum. The agreement allows the South to secede1 with a simple majority vote, but will require a voter turnout of two-thirds for the referendum to be considered valid2.
The North's ruling National Congress Party and the South's ruling Sudan People's Liberation Movement have been engaged for months of talks over the final implementation3 of the peace deal signed in 2005.
The most sensitive impasse4 has been over the details of an independence vote for South Sudan set for January 2011. The North has held the position that a 75 percent or even 90 percent majority vote in favor of secession should be required for the referendum to pass. The South has been demanding the threshold of a simple majority.
Sudan Foreign Ministry5 spokesman Moawya Othman Khaled confirms Khartoum reached the referendum agreement with the South.
"Yes, there is an agreement reached in the referendum row, based on two things," he said. "The first one - the quorum6 that must vote for the referendum should be two-thirds. And, the decision of independence could go with 50 percent plus one, that means simple majority."
Recent surveys and reports all indicate that the vast majority of southerners support secession, meaning the battle now for the South is likely to be fought over the new challenge of reaching the two-thirds quorum.
Based on voter turnout data from other countries, Sudanese analyst7 John Ashworth says that reaching the turnout requirement might be a bigger task than the South's leaders realize.
"Southern Sudan is going to find it extremely difficult to get two-thirds of the eligible8 voters to be able to vote, given the climate, the logistics, the terrain9, the insecurity, the lack of capacity," said Ashworth. "All of these things which hampered11 the census12 are also going to hamper10 the referendum."
Ashworth says it is not clear yet whether the two-thirds mark is meant to apply to all eligible southern Sudanese voters, or whether it will only apply to registered voters in the South - which he says would be a more feasible, though still challenging, task. The voter registration13 process has yet to start.
He sees the new turn in the negotiations14 as favorable for the National Congress Party, one that creates a substantial new barrier to a fully15 independent southern Sudan.
"It was rather difficult for them [the NCP] to maintain this 75 percent majority vote. They probably were not getting much international support for that, because it did seem a bit unfair to everybody," he said. "So I think they found a new strategy. The quorum was not in the initial discussions."
The deal is not without its critics in the North. A major northern opposition16 party has blasted the compromise, saying the splitting of a nation is much too serious a decision to be chosen on the basis of a simple majority vote.
The United Nations has expressed concern that inter-ethnic violence in the South might prevent stable elections from taking place. The SPLM accuses Khartoum of instigating17 the violence, a claim the National Congress Party denies.
1 secede | |
v.退出,脱离 | |
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2 valid | |
adj.有确实根据的;有效的;正当的,合法的 | |
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3 implementation | |
n.实施,贯彻 | |
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4 impasse | |
n.僵局;死路 | |
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5 ministry | |
n.(政府的)部;牧师 | |
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6 quorum | |
n.法定人数 | |
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7 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
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8 eligible | |
adj.有条件被选中的;(尤指婚姻等)合适(意)的 | |
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9 terrain | |
n.地面,地形,地图 | |
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10 hamper | |
vt.妨碍,束缚,限制;n.(有盖的)大篮子 | |
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11 hampered | |
妨碍,束缚,限制( hamper的过去式和过去分词 ) | |
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12 census | |
n.(官方的)人口调查,人口普查 | |
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13 registration | |
n.登记,注册,挂号 | |
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14 negotiations | |
协商( negotiation的名词复数 ); 谈判; 完成(难事); 通过 | |
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15 fully | |
adv.完全地,全部地,彻底地;充分地 | |
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16 opposition | |
n.反对,敌对 | |
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17 instigating | |
v.使(某事物)开始或发生,鼓动( instigate的现在分词 ) | |
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