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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
By Ravi Khanna
Washington
23 October 2009
Afghanistan is getting ready for a second-round presidential election between President Hamid Karzai and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, after a fraud investigation1 brought Mr. Karzai's totals to below 50 percent.
The United Nations has begun delivering ballots2 across Afghanistan to prepare for the November 7 runoff between President Hamid Karzai and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah.
The second round comes after the election commission nullified nearly one million votes cast in August presidential polls. The investigation brought Mr. Karzai's vote count below 50 percent, enough to trigger a runoff.
President Barack Obama has said the runoff reflects the will of the Afghan people and he may withhold3 his decision on U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan until after the new polls.
The remarks followed his meeting with Senator John Kerry, who has just returned from the Afghan capital, Kabul.
"I think you really want to know that this has worked and you want to know what kind of government is coming out of it," he said.
An analyst4 at the Institute for the Study of War, Haseeb Humayoon, says Mr. Karzai may win again.
Haseeb Humayoon
"If we look at the numbers and how they have turned out, President Karzai has a much stronger base than Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and that may play a role in the second round as well," he explained.
But questions remain about the deals Mr. Karzai struck with local powers of remote Afghan regions to win their support.
"I think one has to look at that with a lot of caution, because while electorally those deals might have returns, in terms of government efficiency down the line they are questionable," he added.
But Rick Nelson at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington says it is wrong to look at the Afghan political landscape through a Western lens.
Rick Nelson
"President Karzai has been very aggressive in trying to cut deals and trying to build partnerships," he noted6. "But given the circumstances in which he is trying to operate, if he can cut deals with rival factions7 and it results in a stable Afghanistan, that is something we may want to support."
Another scenario8 presented by some experts is one in which the August election runner up, Mr. Abdullah, wins this time around. Nelson says he may not belong to the Pashtun majority tribe, but he is not that different politically than Mr. Karzai.
"Obviously, he is not a full Pashtun, he is a little bit Tajik as well, and that may change the dynamics9 with the United States," Mr. Nelson added. "But it probably is not going to change the overall U.S. policy too much."
There is also the chance that the two contenders will come up with some sort of an agreement to share power and avoid the runoff. While some analysts10 say this is unlikely, Nelson is optimistic.
"If there is a unity11 government in advance, it certainly puts the whole election legitimacy12 question aside, and will enable the United States and NATO to move forward in their partnership5 with Afghanistan," he said.
In Washington, U.S. officials have said a power-sharing arrangement between the two leaders would be totally up to the Afghans.
1 investigation | |
n.调查,调查研究 | |
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2 ballots | |
n.投票表决( ballot的名词复数 );选举;选票;投票总数v.(使)投票表决( ballot的第三人称单数 ) | |
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3 withhold | |
v.拒绝,不给;使停止,阻挡 | |
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4 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
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5 partnership | |
n.合作关系,伙伴关系 | |
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6 noted | |
adj.著名的,知名的 | |
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7 factions | |
组织中的小派别,派系( faction的名词复数 ) | |
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8 scenario | |
n.剧本,脚本;概要 | |
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9 dynamics | |
n.力学,动力学,动力,原动力;动态 | |
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10 analysts | |
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 ) | |
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11 unity | |
n.团结,联合,统一;和睦,协调 | |
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12 legitimacy | |
n.合法,正当 | |
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