VOA标准英语2009年-Global Economic Upturn Seen as 2010 Ap

The global economy is expected to show a 1.1 percent drop in output for 2009, following a five percent expansion in 2007 and three percent growth in 2008

Michael Bowman | Washington 17 December 2009

 
Photo: AP
Emirati man talks on his mobile phone at Dubai Financial Market, 30 Nov 2009

 
"The U.S. economy and the world economy are now growing again," says U.S. Treasury¹ Secretary Timothy Geithner.

Economists³ are forecasting a rosier⁴ 2010 for global finances than this year has been.  But they warn that the economic recovery remains⁵ fragile and will not be led by the world's advanced industrialized nations.

2009 began with a sinking global economy paralyzed by a worldwide credit crunch⁶, stung by a cascading⁷ failure of banks and financial institutions, and undermined by panic and pessimism⁸ on the part of consumers and investors⁹ from Wall Street to Tokyo.  Central banks and governments fought back with massive cash injections, financial rescue packages and stimulus¹⁰ programs, but success in containing the crisis was far from assured.

Days before becoming U.S. president, Barack Obama warned of the economic perils¹¹ ahead.

"In short, a bad situation could become dramatically worse," Mr. Obama said.

The global economy is expected to show a 1.1 percent drop in output for 2009, following a five percent expansion in 2007 and three percent growth in 2008.
 
The past year has seen sharp spikes¹² in unemployment, which peaked at 10.2 percent in the United States, 9.8 percent in Europe, 9 percent in Brazil and 5.7 percent in Japan.

But a turnaround is underway, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

 
AP
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner

"The U.S. economy and the world economy are now growing again.  Businesses are starting to invest again, consumers are now spending, business and consumer confidence has improved, global trade is now expanding at an encouraging pace," Geithner said.

But analysts¹³ warn that perils remain, and badly needed financial reforms in the United States and elsewhere have yet to be implemented¹⁴.

Mark Zandi is Chief Economist² at Moody's Economy.com.

"You know policymakers have done a lot of good work stabilizing¹⁵ the financial system, but they have not changed anything fundamentally.  And until they do, the risk of another financial panic in our future is still very high," Zandi said.

Policymakers must also decide when to wind down unprecedented¹⁶ levels of government stimulus and financial support.  Those measures were deemed necessary in the face of an economic crisis, but can spark inflation if sustained for too long.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Igor Shuvalov:

"I think this year, it would be more about how to live after the crisis.  What to do with exit policies and whether all of us carry on with fiscal¹⁷ stimulus or when we exit and on what conditions," Shuvalov said.

The global economic downturn struck advanced industrialized nations particularly hard, providing an opening for rising economic powers like India and China to shine on the world stage, according to World Bank President Robert Zoellick.

"India is now a rising economic power that handled the recent economic crisis very well.  It has contributed to world economic stability and could become the pole [focus] of global economic growth over time," Zoellick said.

For many nations, the passing of the financial crisis means attention must be refocused on long-term problems that preceded the global recession.  In the United States, massive government debt continues to grow at a time when an aging population is placing ever-greater demands on social welfare programs.

In much of the developing world, such as in Kenya, other challenges must be tackled, according to World Bank Vice¹⁸ President for Africa Obiageli Ezekwesili.

"In terms of competitiveness in the new global environment, Kenya will have absolutely no choice but to tackle the most important constraint¹⁹ to its development.  It has been corruption," Ezekwesili said.

Unlike in past economic rebounds²⁰, the United States is not in a position to drive global growth, according to the World Bank's Robert Zoellick.

"In every past economic crisis, what you have had is the U.S. consumer and the purchasing start the ball rolling again," Zoellick said. "And that consumption leads to increased business demand and investment on the business side.  Most economists expect that is not going to be the case, this time."

Instead of advanced industrialized nations leading the way, analysts say global economic growth will likely be powered by rapid expansion in countries like China and India, with contributions also coming from lesser-developed nations.
 

1 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 rosier   

Rosieresite

参考例句：

• Rosier for an instant forgot the delicacy of his position. 罗齐尔一时间忘记了他的微妙处境。
• A meeting had immediately taken place between the Countess and Mr. Rosier. 伯爵夫人和罗齐尔先生已经搭讪上了。

5 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

6 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

7 cascading   

流注( cascade的现在分词 )； 大量落下； 大量垂悬； 梯流

参考例句：

• First of all, cascading menus are to be avoided at all costs. 首先，无论如何都要避免使用级联菜单。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
• Her sounds began cascading gently. 他的声音开始缓缓地低落下来。

8 pessimism   

n.悲观者，悲观主义者，厌世者

参考例句：

• He displayed his usual pessimism.他流露出惯有的悲观。
• There is the note of pessimism in his writings.他的著作带有悲观色彩。

9 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

10 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

11 perils   

极大危险( peril的名词复数 )； 危险的事（或环境）

参考例句：

• The commander bade his men be undaunted in the face of perils. 指挥员命令他的战士要临危不惧。
• With how many more perils and disasters would he load himself? 他还要再冒多少风险和遭受多少灾难？

12 spikes   

n.穗( spike的名词复数 )；跑鞋；（防滑）鞋钉；尖状物v.加烈酒于( spike的第三人称单数 )；偷偷地给某人的饮料加入（更多）酒精（ 或药物）；把尖状物钉入；打乱某人的计划

参考例句：

• a row of iron spikes on a wall 墙头的一排尖铁
• There is a row of spikes on top of the prison wall to prevent the prisoners escaping. 监狱墙头装有一排尖钉，以防犯人逃跑。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

14 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

15 stabilizing   

n.稳定化处理[退火]v.（使）稳定， （使）稳固( stabilize的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The disulfide bridges might then be viewed primarily as stabilizing components. 二硫桥可以被看作是初级的稳定因素。 来自辞典例句
• These stabilizing design changes are usually not desirable for steady-state operation. 这些增加稳定性的设计改变通常不太符合稳态工作的要求。 来自辞典例句

16 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

17 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

18 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

19 constraint   

n.(on)约束，限制；限制(或约束)性的事物

参考例句：

• The boy felt constraint in her presence.那男孩在她面前感到局促不安。
• The lack of capital is major constraint on activities in the informal sector.资本短缺也是影响非正规部门生产经营的一个重要制约因素。

20 rebounds   

反弹球( rebound的名词复数 )； 回弹球； 抢断篮板球； 复兴

参考例句：

• V is the velocity after the gas particle rebounds from the wall. V是粒子从壁上弹开后的速度。
• In the former case, the first body rebounds with practically its original velocity. 在前一种情况下，第一个物体实际上以原来的速度弹回。