VOA标准英语2009年-US Economic Recovery Not as Strong as

New economic data shows the U.S. economy grew more slowly than first thought.  The US Commerce Department reports the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate from July to September, down from an earlier estimate of 2.8 percent.  Despite the downgrade, other indicators¹ suggest a strong showing in the fourth quarter.  But some economists³ say an economic turnaround is not a sure thing.

The Commerce Department says the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. between July and September was lower than initial estimates because consumers did not spend as much, commercial construction was weaker and companies reduced their inventories⁴. 

Even so, the final GDP numbers signal a return to growth after four straight quarters of decline.  Wall Street reacted positively⁵, sending key indexes sharply higher - buoyed⁶ in part by a nearly 7.5 percent jump in sales of existing homes.
 
Economist² Martin Neil Baily at the Brookings Institution says the latest indicators suggest the economy is on pace to beat third quarter results. "Most forecasters are looking at more than that in the fourth quarter, maybe four percent [GDP growth] or a little more than that. So given that the economy is turning around, it sort of looks good," he said.

The downside is that much of the growth in the third quarter was fueled by government stimulus⁷ spending.  That includes the "Cash for Clunkers" rebates⁸ and the $8,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers.
 
As government programs unwind, so could the recovery. "Some of those forecasters see strong growth in 2010 and 2011.  But I think that's far from a sure thing.  I think it's quite possible that what we're seeing now is a kind of bounce back with inventories and so on and that you may not get a continuation of strong growth in 2010 and 2011," Baily said.

He admits economic forecasting is not a perfect science. He says the worst case scenario⁹ would be a period of growth, followed by stagnation¹⁰ and then another recession. "Unemployment is still very high, consumers have lost a lot of wealth.  They're uncertain about their own employment situation.  If they lose a job, it's very hard to get another job, so there are a lot of scary things out there in the economy," he said.

Despite the warning, analysts¹¹ say the economy has bounced back faster than expected.

A survey of leading economists predicts the U.S. economy will grow four percent between October and December.

The government releases its first estimate of fourth quarter activity on January 29.
 

1 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

5 positively   

adv.明确地，断然，坚决地；实在，确实

参考例句：

• She was positively glowing with happiness.她满脸幸福。
• The weather was positively poisonous.这天气着实讨厌。

6 buoyed   

v.使浮起( buoy的过去式和过去分词 )；支持；为…设浮标；振奋…的精神

参考例句：

• Buoyed by their win yesterday the team feel confident of further success. 在昨天胜利的鼓舞下，该队有信心再次获胜。
• His encouragement buoyed her up during that difficult period. 他的鼓励使她在那段困难时期恢复了乐观的情绪。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

8 rebates   

n.退还款( rebate的名词复数 )；回扣；返还（退还的部份货价）；折扣

参考例句：

• The VAT system offers advantages, such as rebates on exports. 增值税有其优点，如对出口商品实行回扣。 来自辞典例句
• In more recent years rate rebates have been introduced for households. 近年地方税的减免已适用于家庭。 来自辞典例句

9 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

10 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

11 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。