VOA标准英语 Global Economic Outlook Worsens Despite Signs of US

Forecasters say the world economy is in the midst of its deepest downturn in 60 years with global growth projected to be negative for this year.

Two months ago the International Monetary¹ Fund said the world economy would grow by a meager² one half of one percent this year.

But former IMF chief economist³ Michael Mussa says global conditions have worsened since then and that growth will be negative eight tenths of one percent in 2009. Mussa, a fellow at Washington's Peterson Institute for Intentional⁴ Economics, says the world economy is in the midst of its first significant downturn since World War II. He predicts output declines of two percent in the United States, five percent in Japan and 2.5 percent in the euro area.

But Mussa says that unprecedented⁵ monetary and fiscal⁶ stimulus⁷ in the United States will turn the American economy around within the next few months. He sees positive signs in the 30 percent drop in home prices during the past two years, which is making housing more affordable⁸ for American families.

"In contrast, it took Japan 12 years to grind down its real estate prices to reasonable levels," he said. "That adjustment [here] is happening very rapidly. It's painful, but it is necessary."

Mussa says past recessions have seen a sharp downturn followed by a sharp upturn⁹, a so-called V-shaped recovery. And he predicts U.S. economic growth of 3.6 percent next year.

"We are getting an enormous amount of policy stimulus," he said. "Certainly, on the monetary side in the United States, it is beyond anything that has previously¹⁰ been done."

The Federal Reserve - the nation's central bank - has brought short-term interest rates close to zero percent and flooded the financial system with money to stimulate¹¹ economic activity.

But Mussa's colleague at the Peterson Institute, Simon Johnson, who was also a chief economist at the IMF, remains¹² unconvinced. Johnson says the damage to the economy has been so severe, with consumers and businesses struggling to pay off debt, that the recovery will be anemic and slow - a so-called L-shaped recovery. He predicts little if any growth next year.

"We have done a lot. Governments have done a lot," he said. "Policies have changed in many areas. But the question is: 'Is it a lot in terms of the scale of the problem?" To my mind, it is not enough."

Johnson says that far more fiscal stimulus is needed, particularly in Europe.

But some major developing economies are holding up relatively¹³ well. China is expected to register 7.5 percent economic growth this year and India could see five percent growth.

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 meager   

adj.缺乏的，不足的，瘦的

参考例句：

• He could not support his family on his meager salary.他靠微薄的工资无法养家。
• The two men and the woman grouped about the fire and began their meager meal.两个男人同一个女人围着火，开始吃起少得可怜的午饭。

3 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

4 intentional   

adj.故意的，有意（识）的

参考例句：

• Let me assure you that it was not intentional.我向你保证那不是故意的。
• His insult was intentional.他的侮辱是有意的。

5 unprecedented   

adj.无前例的，新奇的

参考例句：

• The air crash caused an unprecedented number of deaths.这次空难的死亡人数是空前的。
• A flood of this sort is really unprecedented.这样大的洪水真是十年九不遇。

6 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

7 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

8 affordable   

adj.支付得起的，不太昂贵的

参考例句：

• The rent for the four-roomed house is affordable.四居室房屋的房租付得起。
• There are few affordable apartments in big cities.在大城市中没有几所公寓是便宜的。

9 upturn   

n.情况好转

参考例句：

• Experts have forecast an upturn in the stock market.专家已预测股票市场价格有上升趋势。
• The economy is experiencing an upturn.经济正在好转。

10 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

11 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。

12 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

13 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。