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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
Thailand's central bank hopes to help the country's beleaguered1 exporters by allowing more investment overseas part of a strategy to cheapen the Thai baht. Thailand market analysts3 doubt the plan will offer much respite4 from the global economic slump5.
People in Thailand buy fruit at a discount fair supported by the Thai government during the current economic slowdown at a military base in Bangkok, 30 July 2009
Thailand is suffering its most severe downturn in a decade. The Bank of Thailand reports industrial production fell for an eighth consecutive6 month in June.
The slide reflects falling global demand for automobiles8 and processed food, two of the country's biggest exports.
Exports, which account for about 60 percent of the economy, fell by more than 25 percent in June. Imports were also lower by 25 percent - a sign the local economy remains9 weak.
The Bank of Thailand warns the economy could contract more than four percent this year.
Thai industrialists10 want the central bank to help weaken the baht to make Thai exports cheaper on the international market.
This week the central bank said it would allow more companies to invest overseas, especially in foreign securities and bonds, as a way to weaken the baht. In theory, if companies sell the baht to buy investments overseas, that will reduce its value.
But Supavud Saicheua, an economist11 with stock brokerage Phatra Securities, says that may not help.
"Bottom line is we still have a large trade surplus," he said. "The trade surplus is derived12 from the fact that imports have not grown and imports have not grown because domestic demand has been relatively13 weak. And because you have a trade surplus it's very difficult for the baht to weaken."
The Thai auto7 sector14 has been hard hit by the downturn. Auto production in June was down more than 40 percent from a year ago, and exports of all vehicles, including motorbikes, have fallen more than 40 percent in value in the past year.
Vallop Tiasri, president of the Thailand Automotive Institute, is pessimistic about the central bank's plan.
"I don't think it's easy in this economic situation, in this economic crisis situation, to invest in another country," he noted15. "That also makes me surprised that you can push the Thai company to bring the money to invest into another country, the weak or weaker economies.
But the government and economists16 say there are grounds for optimism. The government predicts the economy will begin to recover in the next few months.
Vikas Kawatra is a senior analyst2 with Kim Eng Securities. He says there are signs that Thai exporters are moving away from markets such as the United States, because of gains in some regional markets.
"Thailand does have a lot dependency on exports," he explained. "But of late it has been shifting its focus from the U.S. to other regional markets. So long as Asia keeps doing well, Thailand will not be as badly hurt and Asia could lead the recovery this time pretty much for the entire world."
The Asian Development Bank recently said it appears emerging East Asia economies already are moving toward recovery thanks to the government stimulus17 packages.
1 beleaguered | |
adj.受到围困[围攻]的;包围的v.围攻( beleaguer的过去式和过去分词);困扰;骚扰 | |
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2 analyst | |
n.分析家,化验员;心理分析学家 | |
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3 analysts | |
分析家,化验员( analyst的名词复数 ) | |
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4 respite | |
n.休息,中止,暂缓 | |
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5 slump | |
n.暴跌,意气消沉,(土地)下沉;vi.猛然掉落,坍塌,大幅度下跌 | |
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6 consecutive | |
adj.连续的,联贯的,始终一贯的 | |
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7 auto | |
n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车 | |
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8 automobiles | |
n.汽车( automobile的名词复数 ) | |
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9 remains | |
n.剩余物,残留物;遗体,遗迹 | |
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10 industrialists | |
n.工业家,实业家( industrialist的名词复数 ) | |
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11 economist | |
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人 | |
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12 derived | |
vi.起源;由来;衍生;导出v.得到( derive的过去式和过去分词 );(从…中)得到获得;源于;(从…中)提取 | |
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13 relatively | |
adv.比较...地,相对地 | |
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14 sector | |
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形 | |
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15 noted | |
adj.著名的,知名的 | |
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16 economists | |
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 ) | |
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17 stimulus | |
n.刺激,刺激物,促进因素,引起兴奋的事物 | |
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