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The auto1 fleet in the United States is shrinking. For the first time since World War II, more used cars were scrapped2 than new cars sold in 2009. The fleet decreased from an all-time high in 2008 of 250 million vehicles to 246 million last year.
Driving is no longer a 'must' for some American teens
Earth Policy Institute's Lester Brown suggests the shrinking car market is partly due to declining interest among young people
When Lester Brown was a teenager growing up in rural New Jersey3 in the early 1950s he says he couldn't wait to drive. "Getting a driver's license4 and then getting a car of some sort or a pick-up [truck] in the rural community was sort of a rite5 of passage," he says.
Today, Brown heads the Earth Policy Institute, an environmental research group based in Washington. In a new report, Brown contends that times have changed when it comes to Americans and their cars. Youth today aren't as interested in driving, Brown says, because more are growing up in cities and have learned to live without a car. "Increasingly young people are socializing over the Internet and 'smart' phones and not in automobiles," he explains.
Recession and pollution reduce new car appeal
2010 Earth Policy Institute
In 2009 more cars were scrapped than sold – the U.S. auto fleet shrank by 4 million
During the current U.S. economic recession, consumers of all ages have been reluctant to buy big-ticket items such as new cars. But other factors like urbanization, congestion6 and environmental concerns, help explain why fewer cars are on the road.
Paul Eisenstein, senior editor for the online automotive news magazine TheDetroitBureau.com, is a long-time auto industry analyst7. Like Brown, he sees a culture shift occurring among both car consumers and car makers8.
"Consumers are rethinking what they are spending money on, whether they need to own as many vehicles in a household fleet," Eisenstein says. He adds, "The carmakers are also rethinking what they need to get consumers to buy so many vehicles." It wasn't unusual, Eisenstein says, for companies to spend between $5,000 and $10,000 per car to attract a single customer to make a purchase. Now he says, "Car companies are looking at finding a way to sell cars more cheaply."
In 10 years, 10 percent fewer cars may be on roads
Eisenstein says that could lead to fewer retail9 incentives10, rebates11 and subsidies12 for new car buyers. It could also mean plant closings to bring car production in line with demand. Brown expects the U.S. auto fleet to shrink by 10 percent over the next decade. Many experts believe plant closings would result in a healthier U.S. auto industry.
Eisenstein says while he doesn't expect full recovery to previous production levels of 17 million vehicles a year, the market for American cars will improve because of immigration and population growth.
Looking ahead, Brown says the U.S. may follow the lead of Japan, a country with large cities oversaturated with motor vehicles. "Japan reached the saturation13 point in 1990 and its annual car sales have declined by 21 percent since then," he says.
But, Eisenstein says that, unlike the U.S., Japan has an easily accessible mass transit14 system that gives drivers an alternative not available to most Americans. "[That's] complicated by the fact that our cities are much further apart than they are in much of the world." He says there is really nothing else to turn to.
The car once promised mobility15
The U.S. market is expected to shrink by 10 percent within the decade as more old cars are scrapped
Today drivers must contend with traffic jams, congestion and pollution. And it's becoming a global problem. Brown notes that China has begun to outpace the U.S. in new car sales. He says if China were to reach the same level of per capita car ownership as the United States, the resulting traffic congestion, pollution and land use shifts could have a devastating16 impact on Chinese society. "[Just] think of the roads, the streets, the parking lots, [and] the land that has to be paved over to support that level of car ownership," he says. That would be equal, Brown adds, "to two-thirds of the area of rice planted in China today."
In this context, Brown believes a shrinking U.S. car fleet could help address the problem of climate change, lessening17 dependence18 on foreign oil and reducing carbon emissions19 from the transportation.
Brown predicts that a smaller U.S. car market will shift steadily20 away from fossil fuel powered vehicles to more hybrid21 and electric models. One case in point is that the Toyota Prius hybrid was among the top ten best-selling cars in the United States in 2009. Brown says auto companies that fail to note these trends and embrace these new technologies will be left in the backwater of a bygone automotive age.
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1
auto
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| n.(=automobile)(口语)汽车 | |
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scrapped
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| 废弃(scrap的过去式与过去分词)； 打架 | |
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jersey
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| n.运动衫 | |
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license
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| n.执照，许可证，特许；v.许可，特许 | |
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rite
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| n.典礼，惯例，习俗 | |
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congestion
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| n.阻塞，消化不良 | |
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analyst
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| n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家 | |
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makers
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| n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式） | |
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9
retail
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| v./n.零售；adv.以零售价格 | |
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incentives
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| 激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机 | |
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11
rebates
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| n.退还款( rebate的名词复数 )；回扣；返还（退还的部份货价）；折扣 | |
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subsidies
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| n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 ) | |
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13
saturation
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| n.饱和(状态)；浸透 | |
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14
transit
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| n.经过，运输；vt.穿越，旋转；vi.越过 | |
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mobility
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| n.可动性，变动性，情感不定 | |
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devastating
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| adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的 | |
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lessening
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| 减轻，减少，变小 | |
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18
dependence
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| n.依靠，依赖；信任，信赖；隶属 | |
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emissions
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| 排放物( emission的名词复数 )； 散发物（尤指气体） | |
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steadily
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| adv.稳定地；不变地；持续地 | |
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hybrid
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| n.(动，植）杂种，混合物 | |
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