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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
Nearly two years into Zimbabwe's government of national unity1, the country's economy is plagued by a declining industrial sector2 and continuing job losses. There is little foreign investment and little hope for financial assistance.
The International Monetary3 Fund said last week that while it continued technical assistance to Zimbabwe, the political situation remains4 too unstable5 for the international body to grant the country financial assistance. Without such assistance, however, the future for Zimbabwe's economy appears bleak6.
When President Robert Mugabe came to power 30 years ago, Zimbabwe manufactured more of its own products than any other country in Africa, including South Africa. Now, more than 50 percent of the country's factories are closed and most of those that remain are manufacturing at 30 percent of total capacity.
Zimbabwe began to slip into economic decline in 2000 when Mr. Mugabe launched a chaotic7, violent land-reform program. This became a major crisis when the former ZANU-PF government imposed price controls in 2007, forcing companies to sell goods below cost of production, while the central bank printed tons of worthless Zimbabwe dollars and inflation broke world records.
When the government of national unity came to power in February 2009, the Zimbabwe dollar was abandoned and the country adopted hard currencies, primarily the U.S. dollar and the South African rand.
This brought stability to the economy, but Zimbabwe economist8 Rob Davies said the manufacturing sector has little chance of recovery. "So the manufacturing sector, particularly after that little post-dollarization boom, post price control, are dealing9 with old, outdated10 capital equipment and it is very difficult for them to recapitalize, it is difficult for them to get long term loans for that."
Davies said there are even greater challenges now facing Zimbabwe and Movement for Democratic Change finance minister Tendai Biti. "They just do not have the scale to compete with South African or Chinese producers. So what [finance minister] Biti inherited was a de-industrialized economy, and it is not clear what you would do to turn this around."
Another economist, John Robertson, also is gloomy about the economy. While he said Biti had improved tax collection since the inclusive government came to power, there was little left over from public sector salaries to reconstruct broken infrastructure11.
Robertson said there has been some increased agricultural production in the past year. The United Nations says Zimbabwe still needs emergency feeding, though, for about 1.7 million people before the next harvest, which beings in April. Robertson also said the mining and industrial sectors12 need recapitalization.
"We have not been able to raise any international loans, because we are still so deeply in debt, and outstanding arrears13 are $7 billion," said Robertson. "That is close to nearly twice our GDP, so our credit rating is as bad as it can get, I think it is the worst in the world."
Robertson said most economic activity in Zimbabwe is the sale of imported goods in the retail14 trade. "Really, the economy has not got back on its feet. We are better than we were for reasons that are not related to production in the country, the shops are full of goods, the goods are mostly made in South Africa or South African suppliers, they are not made by local factories. We are not generating jobs in the country."
The MDC controls the social ministries15 and the finance ministry16 in the unity government and most economists17 say Finance Minister Biti has done the best he can with resources limited to tax collection.
But Davies said international donors18 and investors19 want to see political transformation20 and stability, and the MDC cannot achieve that without the full cooperation of Mr. Mugabe and his ZANU-PF. "One thing you can be sure about, you would not have that policy designed by a GNU where people are fighting for the politics of the GNV."
Davies said, as an example, that although the MDC is in charge of the public service within the unity government, the party would not be able reduce the number of public servants if that was necessary to revive the economy.
"MDC is not going to do that, they would not allow him [Biti] to do that and [ZANU-PF] is not going to do that," said Davies. "Biti inherited problems without power. The political economy is such that he can not do a lot."
Mr. Mugabe said he is uncomfortable sharing power with the MDC, which narrowly won the last elections in 2008. He said he wants fresh elections early next year.
Many people fear new elections will bring a resurgence22 of the violence that affected23 the elections in 2008, when about 180 MDC supporters were killed and tens of thousands were injured and forced out of their homes.
Industrialists24 told ZANU-PF vice21 president Joyce Mujuru last week the economy is too fragile for another violent election.
1 unity | |
n.团结,联合,统一;和睦,协调 | |
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2 sector | |
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形 | |
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3 monetary | |
adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的 | |
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4 remains | |
n.剩余物,残留物;遗体,遗迹 | |
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5 unstable | |
adj.不稳定的,易变的 | |
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6 bleak | |
adj.(天气)阴冷的;凄凉的;暗淡的 | |
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7 chaotic | |
adj.混沌的,一片混乱的,一团糟的 | |
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8 economist | |
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人 | |
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9 dealing | |
n.经商方法,待人态度 | |
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10 outdated | |
adj.旧式的,落伍的,过时的;v.使过时 | |
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11 infrastructure | |
n.下部构造,下部组织,基础结构,基础设施 | |
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12 sectors | |
n.部门( sector的名词复数 );领域;防御地区;扇形 | |
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13 arrears | |
n.到期未付之债,拖欠的款项;待做的工作 | |
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14 retail | |
v./n.零售;adv.以零售价格 | |
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15 ministries | |
(政府的)部( ministry的名词复数 ); 神职; 牧师职位; 神职任期 | |
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16 ministry | |
n.(政府的)部;牧师 | |
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17 economists | |
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 ) | |
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18 donors | |
n.捐赠者( donor的名词复数 );献血者;捐血者;器官捐献者 | |
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19 investors | |
n.投资者,出资者( investor的名词复数 ) | |
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20 transformation | |
n.变化;改造;转变 | |
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21 vice | |
n.坏事;恶习;[pl.]台钳,老虎钳;adj.副的 | |
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22 resurgence | |
n.再起,复活,再现 | |
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23 affected | |
adj.不自然的,假装的 | |
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24 industrialists | |
n.工业家,实业家( industrialist的名词复数 ) | |
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