VOA英语2010年-China Struggles to Tackle Inflation

Chinese economic authorities have signaled that fighting rising prices will be their top priority next year.

China's government set an average inflation rate target this year of 3 percent, but some economists² expect the rate to top that figure. Last month, inflation rose to 5.1 percent from 4.4 percent in October.

Shen Jiangguang, an economist¹ at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong, expects prices to continue to rising.

"Likely November will see the peak of inflation for this year," Shen said. "But actually next year, in the first half, we're probably going to see even higher inflation."

Food prices jumped the most in November, partly because of bad crops and higher costs for transporting them.

At the end of a three-day national economic conference Sunday, the government signaled it would take more steps to tame inflation. No details were mentioned, but authorities could impose price controls on food commodities to help consumers, as they have done in the past.

But what policy makers³ seem to find harder to tackle is price pressure that comes from the banking⁴ side. In the past several months, China has been trying to undo⁵ the effects of runaway⁶ lending and investment that resulted from its massive economic stimulus⁷ package in 2009. That helped drive up prices of property, stocks and basic commodities.

China set a target of 7.5 trillion yuan, or $1.1 trillion, in new loans this year, much lower than it was in 2009. But in the first 11 months of the year, total new loans nearly reached that figure.

Banks have been told to hold more and more of their deposits as reserves to cut back on lending.

Shen says the central bank is likely to take a combination of actions, including more interest rate increases in the next few months and lowering the loan quota⁸ for next year.

But he says as long as Chinese savers get less for their money if they keep it in bank deposits than from investing in property or stocks, inflation will remain a challenge.

"We have inflation to 5 percent but the one-year deposit rate is only at 2.5 percent, so the gap is rising," Shen added. "So I think the most important thing is to close the negative interest gap so that people will be more comfortable in putting money in bank accounts rather than trying to find other types of investment vehicles like housing that actually fuel demand and stimulate⁹ further inflation."

Stephen Roach, the former head of Asia operations for the investment bank Morgan Stanley and a Yale University professor, says inflation distracts Chinese authorities from making the shift from an export-oriented to a consumption-led economy.

"The longer policy makers wait to address inflation the tougher it would be to deal with the structural¹⁰ issues," Roach said. "My advice is to move quickly and aggressively to deal with inflation so that you can get on with the most important transition in China, which is stimulation¹¹ of private consumption."

The re-balancing of China's economy has long-term implications in narrowing its surplus with its trading partners, such as the United States, and ultimately in rebalancing the global economy.

Inflation presents not only economic risks, but also political ones in China. A sharp rise in prices for basic goods - such as food and housing could lead to public protests. China political experts say the ruling Communist Party is eager to make sure that does not happen.

But clamping down too hard to fight inflation could slow growth sharply, and lead to rising unemployment - also a political problem.

With the government tightening¹² the amount of money for lending, China's economy is expected to slow in 2011. That too would have implications on economies that trade with China. On Monday, the South Korean central bank governor said he is watching China's inflation and its potential effects in his country.

1 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

2 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 makers   

n.制造者，制造商（maker的复数形式）

参考例句：

• The makers of the product assured us that there had been no sacrifice of quality. 这一产品的制造商向我们保证说他们没有牺牲质量。
• The makers are about to launch out a new product. 制造商们马上要生产一种新产品。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

5 undo   

vt.解开，松开；取消，撤销

参考例句：

• His pride will undo him some day.他的傲慢总有一天会毁了他。
• I managed secretly to undo a corner of the parcel.我悄悄地设法解开了包裹的一角。

6 runaway   

n.逃走的人，逃亡，亡命者；adj.逃亡的，逃走的

参考例句：

• The police have not found the runaway to date.警察迄今没抓到逃犯。
• He was praised for bringing up the runaway horse.他勒住了脱缰之马受到了表扬。

7 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

8 quota   

n.（生产、进出口等的）配额，（移民的）限额

参考例句：

• A restricted import quota was set for meat products.肉类产品设定了进口配额。
• He overfulfilled his production quota for two months running.他一连两个月超额完成生产指标。

9 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。

10 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

11 stimulation   

n.刺激，激励，鼓舞

参考例句：

• The playgroup provides plenty of stimulation for the children.幼儿游戏组给孩子很多启发。
• You don't get any intellectual stimulation in this job.你不能从这份工作中获得任何智力启发。

12 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。