VOA标准英语2011--Will Political Turmoil Collapse the Old

The political turmoil¹ in the Arab world may not only lead to much higher oil prices, but greater competition for resources and a shift in priorities for oil-producing nations. So says the author of Rising Powers, Shrinking Planet.
What's happening in North Africa and the Middle East, says Michael Klare, is the collapse² of what he calls the "Old Oil Order."
"The old oil order, as I see it, is a network, a constellation³ of governments in the region, largely authoritarian⁴, that were devoted⁵ to producing oil and making it available for sale to international markets. And these governments were supported to a great deal by the United States and the West, not all of them, but most of them, because these governments favored the international market – the trade in oil," he says.
Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College in Amherst, Massachusetts. He says some cracks were seen in the old oil order over the years in such countries as Iran and Iraq.
Now what?
The new oil order that's emerging, he says, will cater⁶ less to Western desires.
"I think it'll look a lot like Venezuela, in some cases, where (President) Hugo Chavez rules the state oil company, PDVSA, and uses the money for social purposes and political purposes in his country and to promote what he sees as the welfare of his people. And he's not very interested in improving the capacity, the efficiency of the company. So, Venezuela's oil production has fallen since he's been in power," he says.
He says any new governments that emerge in the Arab world, whatever their political orientation⁷, will face "tremendous social and economic challenges." Those challenges will arise from growing populations and high unemployment.
"Their priority is going to be to use their money from oil production to improve employment, not to feed the thirst for oil in the rest of the world," he says.
Pumped up price at the pump
Klare says, "With the demise⁸ of the old oil order, we will see the end of cheap petroleum⁹ forever." That means much higher fuel prices. How high? That depends on Saudi Arabia.
"Saudi Arabia," he says, "is the linchpin of the global oil order because it has the world's largest reserves. It is the largest supplier of oil to international markets and it has the largest spare capacity – the ability to ramp¹⁰ up production in times of crisis like you have today. So, as long as Saudi Arabia remains¹¹ stable and keeps producing, I think oil won't go beyond the record it set in 2008 of about $140-$150 a barrel."
But, he says, if Saudi Arabia goes the way of Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, then there are no limits to how high the price of oil could go.
"$200 a barrel wouldn't surprise me," says Klare.
That could mean gasoline costing at least $5 a gallon here in the United States. He says tapping the U.S. Strategic Oil Reserve to hold down gasoline prices would only have a temporary effect. One thing, he says, that could cause oil prices to drop suddenly is another global economic crisis like the one in 2008.
What's food got to do with it?
The professor of peace and world security studies says it's important to remember that oil and food prices are intertwined. And that prior to the economic crisis, a food crisis gripped the world.
"While the price of oil is rising, we have also seen a huge surge in the price of food, partly because oil is so expensive. When oil rises, the price of food rises. And it's been the high price of food that triggered many of the uprisings, first in Algeria, then in Tunisia and Jordan and in some of the other cases. And the price of food continues to rise, too. And I expect that we'll see more uprisings about food. And I fear that there'll be more of this in the future because of global climate change," he says.
Climate change has been blamed for many droughts and floods, both of which destroy agricultural land.
Klare says the 21st Century brings greater competition for food, fuel and water among the western powers, as well as India, Russia and China. Sub-Saharan African oil producing nations, such as Angola and Nigeria, he says, will be pressured to solve domestic problems, while trying to meeting growing demand for oil.
Klare says the world must develop some type of new energy system soon, not only to meet greater demand, but to deal with climate change, as well.

1 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

2 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

3 constellation   

n.星座n.灿烂的一群

参考例句：

• A constellation is a pattern of stars as seen from the earth. 一个星座只是从地球上看到的某些恒星的一种样子。
• The Big Dipper is not by itself a constellation. 北斗七星本身不是一个星座。

4 authoritarian   

n./adj.专制(的)，专制主义者，独裁主义者

参考例句：

• Foreign diplomats suspect him of authoritarian tendencies.各国外交官怀疑他有着独裁主义倾向。
• The authoritarian policy wasn't proved to be a success.独裁主义的政策证明并不成功。

5 devoted   

adj.忠诚的，忠实的，热心的，献身于...的

参考例句：

• He devoted his life to the educational cause of the motherland.他为祖国的教育事业贡献了一生。
• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。

6 cater   

vi.(for/to)满足，迎合；(for)提供饮食及服务

参考例句：

• I expect he will be able to cater for your particular needs.我预计他能满足你的特殊需要。
• Most schools cater for children of different abilities.大多数学校能够满足具有不同天资的儿童的需要。

7 orientation   

n.方向，目标；熟悉，适应，情况介绍

参考例句：

• Children need some orientation when they go to school.小孩子上学时需要适应。
• The traveller found his orientation with the aid of a good map.旅行者借助一幅好地图得知自己的方向。

8 demise   

n.死亡；v.让渡，遗赠，转让

参考例句：

• He praised the union's aims but predicted its early demise.他赞扬协会的目标，但预期这一协会很快会消亡。
• The war brought about the industry's sudden demise.战争道致这个行业就这么突然垮了。

9 petroleum   

n.原油，石油

参考例句：

• The Government of Iran advanced the price of petroleum last week.上星期伊朗政府提高了石油价格。
• The purpose of oil refinery is to refine crude petroleum.炼油厂的主要工作是提炼原油。

10 ramp   

n.暴怒，斜坡，坡道；vi.作恐吓姿势，暴怒，加速；vt.加速

参考例句：

• That driver drove the car up the ramp.那司机将车开上了斜坡。
• The factory don't have that capacity to ramp up.这家工厂没有能力加速生产。

11 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。