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Africa's Bright, Dark Economic Spots Get Attention
As the International Monetary1 Fund (IMF) and World Bank spring meetings kick off in Washington this week, Africa's economies are the talk of both guarded optimism and cause for concern.
Since the mid-1990s, economic growth in Africa has accelerated. The upward trend is continuing now despite sluggish2 recoveries elsewhere. World Bank officials expect the region's economy to grow 5 percent this year.
Economists4 and experts warn however against considering Africa as a homogeneous entity5. Brookings Africa Growth Initiative Director Mwangi Kimenyi is among these. He spoke6 at a conference in Washington last month organized by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"It is very important to disaggregate these countries, remove the oil countries, because the drivers are different," said Kimenyi. "Coastal7 [countries] are sometimes different from the landlocked, North Africa, and so on. But if you look at the countries that are doing well and they are not natural resource rich countries, they have tried to diversify8 their economies and they have become competitive in particular sectors10."
Bright spots in African economies include Ghana's agricultural sector9, Kenya's mobile banking11, Lesotho's light manufacturing, Cape12 Verde's tourism and Botswana's mining.
Major obstacles in most African countries include insufficient13 schooling14 beyond primary levels, huge gaps between a small rich elite15 and the majority of poor, a lack of outside investment and limited regional integration16.
Harry17 Broadman, the chief economist3 of U.S.-based Albright Capital Management, says the main impediment to better growth is poor governance.
"We can have all the other reforms that we want in the world, whether it is trade reform, whether it is education or the like, but unless we have a confluence18 between civil society and the political and economic leadership, we are not going to get very far in a sustainable way on the continent moving forward," said Broadman.
Shanta Devarajan, the chief economist of the World Bank's Africa region, also points to low labor19 productivity, which measures the ratio of output per hour's work.
"You see 70 to 80 percent of the labor force in the informal sector, mostly in single family household enterprises working on very low productivity activities and also unable to take advantage of any economies of scale, even of the type where you have a firm of 50 people you might be able to buy a machine that can increase your productivity," said Devarajan.
Devarajan says Africa's labor force is getting bigger and bigger, which is both a source of potential but also problems.
"We have seven to 10 million young Africans entering the labor force every year adding to a total stock of about 200 million," added Devarajan.
Beyond the overall numbers which point to strong growth, economists say there are more than a dozen African countries which are extremely fragile economically.
They also say most Africans continue to be extremely vulnerable to external shocks which can severely20 affect their livelihood21, from soaring food and fuel prices, to climate change induced natural disasters, and the outbreak of health epidemics22 and recurring23 political violence.
1 monetary | |
adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的 | |
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2 sluggish | |
adj.懒惰的,迟钝的,无精打采的 | |
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3 economist | |
n.经济学家,经济专家,节俭的人 | |
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4 economists | |
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 ) | |
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5 entity | |
n.实体,独立存在体,实际存在物 | |
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6 spoke | |
n.(车轮的)辐条;轮辐;破坏某人的计划;阻挠某人的行动 v.讲,谈(speak的过去式);说;演说;从某种观点来说 | |
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7 coastal | |
adj.海岸的,沿海的,沿岸的 | |
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8 diversify | |
v.(使)不同,(使)变得多样化 | |
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9 sector | |
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形 | |
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10 sectors | |
n.部门( sector的名词复数 );领域;防御地区;扇形 | |
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11 banking | |
n.银行业,银行学,金融业 | |
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12 cape | |
n.海角,岬;披肩,短披风 | |
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13 insufficient | |
adj.(for,of)不足的,不够的 | |
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14 schooling | |
n.教育;正规学校教育 | |
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15 elite | |
n.精英阶层;实力集团;adj.杰出的,卓越的 | |
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16 integration | |
n.一体化,联合,结合 | |
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17 harry | |
vt.掠夺,蹂躏,使苦恼 | |
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18 confluence | |
n.汇合,聚集 | |
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19 labor | |
n.劳动,努力,工作,劳工;分娩;vi.劳动,努力,苦干;vt.详细分析;麻烦 | |
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20 severely | |
adv.严格地;严厉地;非常恶劣地 | |
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21 livelihood | |
n.生计,谋生之道 | |
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22 epidemics | |
n.流行病 | |
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23 recurring | |
adj.往复的,再次发生的 | |
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