VOA标准英语2012--Analysts: Iran's Threats in Gulf Unlikely to Lead to War

Analysts²: Iran's Threats in Gulf³ Unlikely to Lead to War

 

Iran’s recent threat to close the Strait of Hormuz led to a defiant⁴ U.S. response. It raised concerns of a military clash in the Persian Gulf and also raised oil prices. Some analysts do not expect the war of words to escalate⁵ into a military conflict.

Iran fired missiles and exercised its navy, amid sharp rhetoric⁶ from officials who warned the United States not to move an aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf - something it routinely does.

U.S. officials made clear operations will continue in the Gulf, which is an international waterway.

Iran expert Mark Fitzpatrick believes Iran's threat are hollow.

“It’s laughable that anyone would think that the U.S. Navy is going to listen to Iran’s instructions and be shut out of an area of operation in international waters. It’s just not going to happen," he said. "In that sense, Iran’s threats have a kind of emptiness to them that should be readily apparent to anyone.”

Iran also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil flows - a move the United States would not tolerate. Still, Fitzpatrick says this week’s rhetoric is not likely to lead to war.

“I don’t think that we are going to see a military conflict in the weeks or couple months to come,” he added.

On January 3, 2012 the Pentagon answered an Iranian warning to keep U.S. aircraft carriers out of the Persian Gulf by declaring that American warships7 will continue regularly scheduled deployments to the strategic waterway, (File).

But he says if Iran gets closer to producing a nuclear weapon, that could trigger military moves by the United States or Israel. Iranian officials say their nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes.

Still, Iran seems to be feeling the sting of Western pressures. The U.S. and its European allies say the latest in 30 years of international sanctions are beginning to hurt Iran's economy, because they focus on oil.

“Now that sanctions are beginning to bite on Iran’s sale of oil, it gets to the very heart of the Iranian economy. So they are feeling under some great pressure. And countries under pressure react in various ways, often by lashing⁸ out,” Fitzpatrick stated.

But Fitzpatrick says the Iranian rhetoric also has a practical impact pushing up oil prices and providing Iran with a small infusion⁹ of cash.

And analyst¹ James Brazier of the IHS consulting firm says it would be foolish for the West to ignore Iran's threats. “Iran has invested heavily in its navy, and especially in unconventional tactics that could disrupt shipping¹⁰ through the Strait. So as a result, I think one shouldn’t dismiss the ability of the Iranian Navy to disrupt shipping in the Gulf, but probably not for a very long time,” he said.

Experts say the Iran-U.S. tensions are likely to continue to rise and fall until either Iran builds a nuclear weapon or the West finds a way to convince Iran to halt its controversial nuclear program.

1 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

2 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

3 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

4 defiant   

adj.无礼的，挑战的

参考例句：

• With a last defiant gesture,they sang a revolutionary song as they were led away to prison.他们被带走投入监狱时，仍以最后的反抗姿态唱起了一支革命歌曲。
• He assumed a defiant attitude toward his employer.他对雇主采取挑衅的态度。

5 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

6 rhetoric   

n.修辞学，浮夸之言语

参考例句：

• Do you know something about rhetoric?你懂点修辞学吗？
• Behind all the rhetoric,his relations with the army are dangerously poised.在冠冕堂皇的言辞背后，他和军队的关系岌岌可危。

7 warships   

军舰，战舰( warship的名词复数 )； 舰只

参考例句：

• The enemy warships were disengaged from the battle after suffering heavy casualties. 在遭受惨重伤亡后，敌舰退出了海战。
• The government fitted out warships and sailors for them. 政府给他们配备了战舰和水手。

8 lashing   

n.鞭打；痛斥；大量；许多v.鞭打( lash的现在分词 )；煽动；紧系；怒斥

参考例句：

• The speaker was lashing the crowd. 演讲人正在煽动人群。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The rain was lashing the windows. 雨急打着窗子。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 infusion   

n.灌输

参考例句：

• Old families need an infusion of new blood from time to time.古老的家族需要不时地注入新鲜血液。
• Careful observation of the infusion site is necessary.必须仔细观察输液部位。

10 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。