VOA标准英语2013--Developing World Investment to Rise

 

Developing World Investment to Rise

The developing world is poised¹ to become a major player in global investment. The World Bank says in fewer than 20 years half the global stock of capital will be in developing countries. That compares to about one-third today. The bank has released the latest edition of its Global Development Horizons report.

The World Bank forecasts, by 2030, “developing countries’ share in global investment is projected to triple” to nearly 160-trillion dollars. Chief Economist² and Senior Vice-President Kaushik Basu said that “demographic changes will profoundly influence structural³ shifts.”

“Population will increase from the current roughly seven billion to eight-point-five billion at the end of 2030. Some societies will be well advanced in the process of aging. The demographic bulge⁴ in different countries will progress at different paces. And the big question that should concern us all is what will happen to the major drivers of growth and development, namely savings⁵ and investment – and in particular, infrastructural⁶ investment.”

The report is being released during – what Basu called – troubling times. He said there is a “decoupling between the world of finance and the real economy.”

“By most financial indicators⁷ we are doing better, distinctly better, actually, than a year ago. But if you look at the real economy, including the news that came from Europe, the recession is prolonging. Europe is probably into the longest stagnation⁸ since 1945. There is a trap lurking⁹ at every level of income for every country. Policymakers have to be aware of that,” he said.

He admitted that long-term economic forecasting can be difficult. However, he said that the Global Development Horizons report reveals “a host of interesting trends.”

“By 2030, we are also being told that China and India will be the largest investors¹⁰ in the world. Developing countries will account for 47 to 60 percent of global capital flows in 2030. This is an amazing shift from the current roughly 23 percent,” he said.

That’s expected to continue until the late 2030s, when another region will rise.

“At that stage,” he said, “the demographic dividend¹¹ will be on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa. A lot of our global attention will no doubt turn to the great opportunities that will happen in sub-Saharan Africa.”

The report paints a scenario¹² of deeper financial market development there. It adds that foreign investors will become much more willing to invest in the region. Also, sub-Saharan Africa will have a much younger labor¹³ force than many other parts of the world.

“By 2030, for every dollar that will be invested in the world 60 cents will be invested in developing countries. This is a dramatic change with respect to the past. For almost four decades, from the 60s to the 90s and 2000, the investments were only 20 cents to the dollar. So this is a major change,” said  Maurizio Bussolo, lead author of the World Bank report.

Bussolo added that by 2019, total investment share in developing countries will overtake the total investment by developed nations.

“This is happening even though we foresee the investment rates coming down across all the regions. This is because growth will decelerate from [a] very high level and there will be a lot of churning within countries where investment will shift toward service sectors¹⁴ from agricultural and manufacturing.”

The report also says that “unlike in the past, developing countries will likely have the resources needed to finance massive future investments for infrastructure¹⁵ and services, including education and health care.”

Education is described as the best opportunity for policymakers to increase the earning capacity of its poor citizens.

1 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

2 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

3 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

4 bulge   

n.突出，膨胀，激增；vt.突出，膨胀

参考例句：

• The apple made a bulge in his pocket.苹果把他口袋塞得鼓了起来。
• What's that awkward bulge in your pocket?你口袋里那块鼓鼓囊囊的东西是什么？

5 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

6 infrastructural   

adj.基础结构的基础设施的

参考例句：

• Must increase the investment dynamics unceasingly, strengthens the countryside infrastructural facilities. 要不断加大投入力度，加强农村基础设施建设。 来自互联网
• In the 1980s, India started with some infrastructural advantages over China. 1980年代，印度在某些基础设施方面优于中国。 来自互联网

7 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

8 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

9 lurking   

潜在

参考例句：

• Why are you lurking around outside my house? 你在我房子外面鬼鬼祟祟的，想干什么？
• There is a suspicious man lurking in the shadows. 有一可疑的人躲在阴暗中。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

10 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

11 dividend   

n.红利，股息；回报，效益

参考例句：

• The company was forced to pass its dividend.该公司被迫到期不分红。
• The first quarter dividend has been increased by nearly 4 per cent.第一季度的股息增长了近 4%。

12 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

13 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

14 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

15 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。