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IMF Urges US to Postpone1 Interest Rate Hike Until 2016 国际货币基金组织敦促美国推迟加息直至2016年
The International Monetary2 Fund is urging the U.S. central bank to delay its planned interest rate hike until 2016. Although the IMF says the underpinnings for continued growth are still in place, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde says recent data suggest U.S. growth is likely to remain subpar. Her comments reflect new concerns about the world's largest economy, which shrank 0.7 percent in the first three months of the year.
Earlier optimism about the U.S. economy has faded a bit, after new data showed momentum3 slowing between January and March – the result of a harsh winter and a stronger U.S. dollar that has made U.S. goods more expensive abroad.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde says raising U.S. rates too soon could result in significant market volatility4 around the world.
“In weighing this risk, we think that there is a case for waiting to raise rates until there are more tangible5 signs of wage or price inflation than are currently evident. So, in other words, we believe that a rate hike would be better off in early 2016," said Lagarde.
Buoyed6 by a steady improvement in the labor7 market, the central bank had signaled a modest rate hike by the middle of the year, its first in nearly nine years. But the contraction8 in the first quarter and a slowdown in spending suggest consumers remain wary9. Consumer spending rose only 1.8 percent in the first three months of 2015 – a surprisingly modest increase given the more than five percent jump in disposable income, says Federal Reserve board member Lael Brainard.
“Continuing softness in consumption this year would naturally raise some questions about whether there’s a more persistent10 change afoot – in particular, whether the financial crisis may have caused consumers to be more cautious about spending gains in income and wealth that are perceived to be temporary," said Brainard.
But others believe the U.S. slowdown was an aberration11. Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects a rate hike in September.
“Relative to where we were say a few years ago, the banking12 sector13 is in much better health, the housing market’s improving, we don’t have any major fiscal14 shocks going on right now, we don’t have a fiscal cliff looming15, we don’t have a shutdown looming in Washington, so you kind of take a better backdrop for the economy in terms of healing," said Harris.
A new survey of the American Bankers Association's top economists16 predicts a rebound17 in the second half of the year, but the IMF has downgraded its forecast for U.S. economic growth from 3.1 percent to 2.5 percent in 2015.
1 postpone | |
v.延期,推迟 | |
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2 monetary | |
adj.货币的,钱的;通货的;金融的;财政的 | |
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3 momentum | |
n.动力,冲力,势头;动量 | |
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4 volatility | |
n.挥发性,挥发度,轻快,(性格)反复无常 | |
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5 tangible | |
adj.有形的,可触摸的,确凿的,实际的 | |
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6 buoyed | |
v.使浮起( buoy的过去式和过去分词 );支持;为…设浮标;振奋…的精神 | |
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7 labor | |
n.劳动,努力,工作,劳工;分娩;vi.劳动,努力,苦干;vt.详细分析;麻烦 | |
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8 contraction | |
n.缩略词,缩写式,害病 | |
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9 wary | |
adj.谨慎的,机警的,小心的 | |
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10 persistent | |
adj.坚持不懈的,执意的;持续的 | |
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11 aberration | |
n.离开正路,脱离常规,色差 | |
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12 banking | |
n.银行业,银行学,金融业 | |
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13 sector | |
n.部门,部分;防御地段,防区;扇形 | |
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14 fiscal | |
adj.财政的,会计的,国库的,国库岁入的 | |
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15 looming | |
n.上现蜃景(光通过低层大气发生异常折射形成的一种海市蜃楼)v.隐约出现,阴森地逼近( loom的现在分词 );隐约出现,阴森地逼近 | |
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16 economists | |
n.经济学家,经济专家( economist的名词复数 ) | |
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17 rebound | |
v.弹回;n.弹回,跳回 | |
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