VOA常速英语2018--贸易、物流业或成贸易战首当其冲的牺牲品

The last few weeks have been extremely stressful for Liang Liang who owns an import wholesale¹ business in Los Angeles. I’ve been watching the news every day. When will the tariff² be put in place? When are my goods arriving? It’s a fight against time. I’m trying to order all my products for the rest of the year.

过去几周里，在洛杉矶经营进口批发业务的梁亮可谓是压力山大。我每天都关注新闻。关税什么时候开始实施？我的货什么时候到？这是一场与时间的赛跑。我试图把下半年的货都先给订了。

Most of his goods such as toys and T-shirts come from China, Liang’s home country. He expects a 10 to 20 percent increase in shipping³ costs, as prices rise. Because of the tariffs⁴, some manufacturers and retailers⁵ may order fewer products, cutting the volume of trade and shipping between the two countries. Once that happens, you’re gonna see an increase in the rates for shipping because when you don’t have the volume to justify⁶ the goods going back and forth⁷, you’re gonna see a further increase in that shipping cost. And shipping costs will affect all trade between the US and China, not just the goods on the list to be taxed. The trade and logistics sector⁸ which includes the ports in the supply chain of trucks and warehouses⁹ will be the first casualties of the trade war.

梁亮所需的大部分货源都来自家乡中国，比如玩具、T恤。他预计，随着物价的抬高，货运成本也会上升10%-20%。由于关税的加征，一些制造商和零售商可能会降低产品总量，从而导致中美两国间的贸易额以及货运量下滑。这时候，运费就会上涨，因为货运量不够大，运费成本不足以支撑数量不多的货物来来返返，所以运费就会上升。而运费成本会影响中美贸易情况，而不只是影响被加征关税的货物。由于贸易业和物流业都要涉及到卡车和仓库供应链中的港口，所以这两个行业将是贸易战首当其冲的牺牲品。

Liang says he’ll absorb the losses and his profit margins¹⁰ will shrink but… If the tariffs increased by another 10, 20 percent, we’ll have to raise our prices. So the consumers are going to feel it in the wallets very quickly. Businesses restructure their supply networks and adjust to the tariff environment. Duane Kenagy at the Port of Long Beach says so far the port has seen record container volumes this year, but there is concern.

梁亮表示自己将大量亏损，盈余的资金也将缩水，不过……如果关税再升10%-20%的话，我们就必须提价了。所以消费者会发现自己的钱包扁得很快。企业会对供应网络进行重组，以适应关税提升的环境。长滩港的杜安 凯纳吉(Duane Kenagy)表示，目前为止，该港口已经达到了吞吐量的史上最高值，但依然让人忧心忡忡。

The impacts of a sustained long-term trade war could be devastating¹¹ to both economies. Liang Liang remains¹² hopeful: he thinks the trade war is actually political theater for both the US and China. China also has its position on trade. The Chinese government also has to be accountable to the 1.4 billion people of China. So I think China and the US will disagree over trade on the surface. For Trump¹³ it’s a show for the November midterm elections so he can be accountable to the electorate¹⁴. Experts say finding solutions to unfair trade practices and issues of American intellectual property are needed. But there also should be measures to minimize the damages of a trade war.

长期贸易战的影响对于两国经济来说都是毁灭性的。梁亮依然抱有希望：他认为，贸易战实际上是中美两国的政治博弈。中方在贸易方面有自己的立场。而且中国政府也要对14亿中国人民负责。所以，我觉得，中国和美国在贸易商的分歧是表象。对于特朗普来说，这对于11月的中期选举来说是一次展示，这样对选民们才有个交代。有专家认为，美国的知识产权被以不公正的方式在贸易中利用，有必要为这个问题寻找解决方案。但同时也有必要将贸易战的损失降到最低。

1 wholesale   

n.批发；adv.以批发方式；vt.批发，成批出售

参考例句：

• The retail dealer buys at wholesale and sells at retail.零售商批发购进货物，以零售价卖出。
• Such shoes usually wholesale for much less.这种鞋批发出售通常要便宜得多。

2 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

3 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

4 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

5 retailers   

零售商，零售店( retailer的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• High street retailers reported a marked increase in sales before Christmas. 商业街的零售商报告说圣诞节前销售量显著提高。
• Retailers have a statutory duty to provide goods suitable for their purpose. 零售商有为他们提供符合要求的货品的法定义务。

6 justify   

vt.证明…正当(或有理)，为…辩护

参考例句：

• He tried to justify his absence with lame excuses.他想用站不住脚的借口为自己的缺席辩解。
• Can you justify your rude behavior to me?你能向我证明你的粗野行为是有道理的吗？

7 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

8 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

9 warehouses   

仓库，货栈( warehouse的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The whisky was taken to bonded warehouses at Port Dundee. 威士忌酒已送到邓迪港的保稅仓库。
• Row upon row of newly built warehouses line the waterfront. 江岸新建的仓库鳞次栉比。

10 margins   

边( margin的名词复数 )； 利润； 页边空白； 差数

参考例句：

• They have always had to make do with relatively small profit margins. 他们不得不经常设法应付较少的利润额。
• To create more space between the navigation items, add left and right margins to the links. 在每个项目间留更多的空隙，加左或者右的margins来定义链接。

11 devastating   

adj.毁灭性的，令人震惊的，强有力的

参考例句：

• It is the most devastating storm in 20 years.这是20年来破坏性最大的风暴。
• Affairs do have a devastating effect on marriages.婚外情确实会对婚姻造成毁灭性的影响。

12 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

13 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

14 electorate   

n.全体选民；选区

参考例句：

• The government was responsible to the electorate.政府对全体选民负责。
• He has the backing of almost a quarter of the electorate.他得到了几乎1/4选民的支持。