强势美元 特朗普和耶伦的相同难题

 　　Where there was discord¹, Donald Trump² has remarkably³ brought harmony.

　　哪里有不和谐之处，唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)便引人注目地带来了和谐。

　　He has brought peace between the markets and Janet Yellen, as traders at last appear to believe her forecast for interest rates over the next year.

　　他让市场和珍妮特.耶伦(Janet Yellen)之间实现了和平，交易员们最终似乎相信了她对明年利率动作的预测。

　　The Federal Reserve says it intends to raise rates three times next year, and the market implicitly⁴, through Fed Funds futures⁵, puts the chance of this happening at almost exactly 50 per cent.

　　美联储(Fed)表示其明年将加息三次，而市场通过联邦基金利率期货暗示，其发生几率几乎正好是50%。

　　This follows five years of the Fed’s current attempt at transparency in which markets have persistently⁶ and successfully bet that rates will stay stuck near zero, whatever Ms Yellen may tell them.

　　此前5年里，美联储一直试图增加透明度，而市场一直、而且正确地押注利率将维持在接近零的水平，无论耶伦可能怎么表态。

　　It is the sharp change in psychology⁷ that came with Mr Trump’s election victory that has at last brought the rate markets and the central bank in tune⁸ with each other.

　　特朗普在选举中获胜带来的心理巨变，最终导致利率市场和美联储达成了一致。

　　The problem is that the newfound belief in a hawkish⁹ Fed scares the bond and foreign exchange markets rigid¹⁰.

　　问题在于，这种新萌发的对于美联储保持鹰派立场的信心，吓坏了债市和汇市。

　　Ms Yellen perhaps inadvertently fed this in her press conference by commenting that fiscal¹¹ policy was not really needed now — a very direct contradiction to the stance of the new administration.

　　在新闻发布会上，耶伦也许在无意中助长了这一情绪，她评论道，目前并不真的需要财政政策——这与新政府的立场直接抵触。

　　The strong language she used about the strength of the US economy and labour market also gave the impression that she was prepared to be even more hawkish in future.

　　她使用强烈措辞表述美国经济和劳动力市场的强劲程度，也给人留下了她准备在未来表现得更加鹰派的印象。

　　The reaction to Ms Yellen’s press conference was almost certainly exaggerated and greater than she wanted, and some attempt by the Fed to talk traders back from the precipice¹² over the next few days is likely.

　　耶伦新闻发布会引起的反应几乎肯定比她希望的更夸张、更巨大，未来几天里，美联储很可能尝试通过调整表态把交易员从悬崖边上拉回来。

　　But the market reaction does indicate that the fixed¹³ income market is indeed prone¹⁴ to an overdramatic sell-off.

　　但市场反应的确预示着，固定收益市场真的可能遭遇过分戏剧化的抛售。

　　Fears of this were not overdone¹⁵, and this is unwelcome news.

　　对此局面的担心并不过分，而这不是个好消息。

　　For the time being, Ms Yellen’s undiplomatic efforts will render her unpopular with Mr Trump.

　　就目前而言，耶伦的不圆滑做法将令她不受特朗普待见。

　　The consolation¹⁶ may be that they now find themselves facing the same serious and urgent problem; dollar strength.

　　或许让她感到安慰的是，他们两人如今面临同一个严峻、紧迫的问题：强势美元。

　　By the end of Wednesday’s hectic¹⁷ trading, the dollar had hit its highest on a trade-weighted basis since early 2003, before the invasion of Iraq.

　　到周三繁忙的交易结束时，美元贸易加权汇率冲上自2003年初——即入侵伊拉克之前——以来的最高点。

　　The economic and financial logic¹⁸ is ineffable¹⁹.

　　其中的经济与金融逻辑是难以形容的。

　　If the US is genuinely going to reflate, then interest rates will need to rise.

　　如果美国真的打算再通胀，那么利息将需要调高。

　　That will attract funds to the dollar, particularly from economies like Japan and Germany where rates are still on the floor.

　　那将吸引资金、尤其是来自日本和德国等利率仍非常低的经济体的资金买入美元。

　　Yield differentials are now extreme.

　　目前，利率差已达到极端水平。

　　The spread of 10-year Treasury²⁰ yields over equivalent German Bunds is now its widest since the spring of 1989, before German reunification.

　　美国10年期国债收益率与德国10年期国债的差距如今达到自1989年春天——当时德国尚未统一——以来的最大水平。

　　This should be helpful for Japan and Germany, export-oriented economies.

　　对于出口导向经济体日本和德国而言，这应是有益的。

　　It is extremely unhelpful for China, still tied to the dollar, and for many emerging markets, where dollar strength — as shown during 2013’s taper²¹ tantrum — can easily translate into crisis conditions.

　　但对于仍与美元挂钩的中国以及许多新兴经济体，这是极其无益的；正如2013年的缩减恐慌(taper tantrum)所显示的那样，强势美元在这些经济体可能很容易引发危机。

　　It is unhelpful for Ms Yellen, as a strong dollar tamps²² down inflation, through its effect on import prices, as well as growth.

　　这对耶伦是无益的，因为强势美元会通过其对进口价格的影响而抑制通胀，并削弱增长。

　　It is also deeply unhelpful to Mr Trump.

　　这对特朗普也是极其无益的。

　　His signature aim is to restore US manufacturing and to defend the country’s trade position.

　　他的标志性目标是恢复美国制造业元气，并捍卫美国的贸易地位。

　　A dollar this strong has much the same effect as an array of protective tariffs²³ against US goods.

　　如此强势的美元，在很大程度上跟对美国产品征收大量保护性关税具有相同的效果。

　　Further, the Fed’s intended rate trajectory²⁴ is based on GDP growth that will barely exceed 2 per cent over the next four years.

　　此外，美联储希望实现的利率轨迹的假设是，未来4年国内生产总值(GDP)增长勉强超过2%。

　　Mr Trump’s clear commitment is to try to get growth up to 3.5 per cent.

　　特朗普的明确承诺是努力使GDP增速达到3.5%。

　　Fiscal policy generous enough to propel growth that strong would likely entail²⁵ higher rates, and an even stronger dollar.

　　如果财政政策足够慷慨、能把增长率推高至那种水平，那将意味着更高的利率，以及更强势的美元。

　　The alternative would be an irresponsible Fed that was prepared to run the risk of allowing inflation to take off once more.

　　替代选择将是美联储不负责任，准备承担让通胀再度飙升的风险。

　　Ultimately, the quandary²⁶ for Mr Trump and Ms Yellen is identical and uncomfortable.

　　归根结底，特朗普和耶伦的困境是相同的、令人不安的。

　　There are limits to how much globalisation can be peeled back.

　　全球化的倒退程度是存在极限的。

　　Financial markets in a global setting put limits on how far the US can restimulate its own economy.

　　全球背景的金融市场，为美国能在何种程度上重新刺激本国经济设定了极限。

1 discord   

n.不和，意见不合，争论，（音乐）不和谐

参考例句：

• These two answers are in discord.这两个答案不一样。
• The discord of his music was hard on the ear.他演奏的不和谐音很刺耳。

2 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

3 remarkably   

ad.不同寻常地，相当地

参考例句：

• I thought she was remarkably restrained in the circumstances. 我认为她在那种情况下非常克制。
• He made a remarkably swift recovery. 他康复得相当快。

4 implicitly   

adv. 含蓄地, 暗中地, 毫不保留地

参考例句：

• Many verbs and many words of other kinds are implicitly causal. 许多动词和许多其他类词都蕴涵着因果关系。
• I can trust Mr. Somerville implicitly, I suppose? 我想，我可以毫无保留地信任萨莫维尔先生吧？

5 futures   

n.期货，期货交易

参考例句：

• He continued his operations in cotton futures.他继续进行棉花期货交易。
• Cotton futures are selling at high prices.棉花期货交易的卖价是很高的。

6 persistently   

ad.坚持地；固执地

参考例句：

• He persistently asserted his right to a share in the heritage. 他始终声称他有分享那笔遗产的权利。
• She persistently asserted her opinions. 她果断地说出了自己的意见。

7 psychology   

n.心理，心理学，心理状态

参考例句：

• She has a background in child psychology.她受过儿童心理学的教育。
• He studied philosophy and psychology at Cambridge.他在剑桥大学学习哲学和心理学。

8 tune   

n.调子；和谐，协调；v.调音，调节，调整

参考例句：

• He'd written a tune,and played it to us on the piano.他写了一段曲子，并在钢琴上弹给我们听。
• The boy beat out a tune on a tin can.那男孩在易拉罐上敲出一首曲子。

9 hawkish   

adj. 鹰派的, 强硬派的

参考例句：

• My staff's advice that first day was amazingly hawkish. 在第一天，我的僚属们的意见是令人吃惊的鹰派意见。
• Antiwar groups fear Barack Obama may create hawkish Cabinet. 反战团体担心巴拉克·奥巴马可以创建强硬派内阁。

10 rigid   

adj.严格的，死板的；刚硬的，僵硬的

参考例句：

• She became as rigid as adamant.她变得如顽石般的固执。
• The examination was so rigid that nearly all aspirants were ruled out.考试很严，几乎所有的考生都被淘汰了。

11 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

12 precipice   

n.悬崖，危急的处境

参考例句：

• The hut hung half over the edge of the precipice.那间小屋有一半悬在峭壁边上。
• A slight carelessness on this precipice could cost a man his life.在这悬崖上稍一疏忽就会使人丧生。

13 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

14 prone   

adj.(to)易于…的，很可能…的；俯卧的

参考例句：

• Some people are prone to jump to hasty conclusions.有些人往往作出轻率的结论。
• He is prone to lose his temper when people disagree with him.人家一不同意他的意见,他就发脾气。

15 overdone   

v.做得过分( overdo的过去分词 )；太夸张；把…煮得太久；（工作等）过度

参考例句：

• The lust of men must not be overdone. 人们的欲望不该过分。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The joke is overdone. 玩笑开得过火。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

16 consolation   

n.安慰，慰问

参考例句：

• The children were a great consolation to me at that time.那时孩子们成了我的莫大安慰。
• This news was of little consolation to us.这个消息对我们来说没有什么安慰。

17 hectic   

adj.肺病的；消耗热的；发热的；闹哄哄的

参考例句：

• I spent a very hectic Sunday.我度过了一个忙乱的星期天。
• The two days we spent there were enjoyable but hectic.我们在那里度过的两天愉快但闹哄哄的。

18 logic   

n.逻辑(学)；逻辑性

参考例句：

• What sort of logic is that?这是什么逻辑？
• I don't follow the logic of your argument.我不明白你的论点逻辑性何在。

19 ineffable   

adj.无法表达的，不可言喻的

参考例句：

• The beauty of a sunset is ineffable.日落的美是难以形容的。
• She sighed a sigh of ineffable satisfaction,as if her cup of happiness were now full.她发出了一声说不出多么满意的叹息，仿佛她的幸福之杯已经斟满了。

20 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

21 taper   

n.小蜡烛，尖细，渐弱；adj.尖细的；v.逐渐变小

参考例句：

• You'd better taper off the amount of time given to rest.你最好逐渐地减少休息时间。
• Pulmonary arteries taper towards periphery.肺动脉向周围逐渐变细。

22 tamps   

v.捣固( tamp的第三人称单数 )；填充；（用炮泥）封炮眼口；夯实

参考例句：

• Garbage collector tamps compacts the managed heap. 垃圾收集器夯实（压缩）托管堆。 来自互联网

23 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

24 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

25 entail   

vt.使承担，使成为必要，需要

参考例句：

• Such a decision would entail a huge political risk.这样的决定势必带来巨大的政治风险。
• This job would entail your learning how to use a computer.这工作将需要你学会怎样用计算机。

26 quandary   

n.困惑，进迟两难之境

参考例句：

• I was in a quandary about whether to go.我当时正犹豫到底去不去。
• I was put in a great quandary.我陷于进退两难的窘境。