特朗普:强势美元“要我们的命”

 　　Donald Trump¹ has threatened to overturn two decades of US economic policy by questioning the strong value of the dollar, raising fears that his presidency² could set off a new round of currency wars between the big economies.

　　唐纳德`特朗普(Donald Trump)威胁要推翻持续已20年的美国经济政策，他对强势美元提出质疑，令人担心身为总统的他可能引发大型经济体之间新一轮的货币战争。

　　On Monday the president-elect appea-r-ed to break from the longstanding “strong dollar” policy of former administrations, declaring that the currency was too high and that this was preventing US companies from competing with their Chinese counterparts. “It’s killing³ us,” he said told the Wall Street Journal.

　　周一，当选总统似乎背离前几届政府长期实行的强势美元政策，宣告美元汇率过高，阻碍了美国企业与中国同行开展竞争。“这一点正在要我们的命，”他对《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)表示。

　　Speaking in Switzerland after Mr Trump’s comments, Anthony Scaramucci, a leading figure in Mr Trump’s transition team, said the administration would need to take heed⁴ of the problems of a buoyant currency.

　　在特朗普发表上述言论后，其过渡团队的主要人物之一安东尼?斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci)在瑞士发表讲话时表示，特朗普政府将需要注意汇率坚挺的问题。

　　特朗普：强势美元“要我们的命”.jpg

　　“In the Trump administration, there will be a lot of symbolism in terms of reaching out for lower class families and middle class families,” he said, adding that in doing so “we have to be careful about the rising currency, because not just what is going on internationally, but it’ll have an impact internally in the US”.

　　“在特朗普政府主政期间，在接触低阶层家庭和中产阶级家庭方面会有很多象征性的动作，”他表示。他补充说，在这么做的时候，“我们得小心汇率不断上升，不仅是因为国际间的情况，还因为它将在美国国内产生的影响”。

　　But he also suggested that if the new administration could create fast growth, it would allow the US to deal with the tighter monetary⁵ conditions that come with a higher currency.

　　但他也提出，如果新一届行政当局能够促成快速经济增长，那将让美国有能力应对伴随更高汇率而来的偏紧的货币条件。

　　Previous incoming administrations have sworn fealty⁶ to a strong dollar, saying it was in the interests of the US economy — even when the currency’s value was arguably then doing more harm than good. It was part of a broader US strategy aimed at allowing the currency to find its own value rather than trying to micromanage the exchange rate.

　　前几届行政当局在就职时都誓言要坚守强势美元，称其符合美国经济的利益——即便当时的美元汇率可以说弊大于利。这是美国整体战略的一部分，旨在让本币找到自己的价值，而不试图对汇率进行微观管理。

　　With the dollar trading at near-14-year highs against a basket of peers, Mr Trump’s team faces a serious barrier to its goal of reducing the US trade deficit⁷.

　　鉴于美元兑一篮子货币的加权汇率逼近14年高点，特朗普团队减少美国贸易赤字的目标面临严重障碍。

　　The danger is that if the US starts suppressing the value of its currency it could spark a currency war greater than the skirmishes seen after the 2008 global financial crisis. Besides China such a war would draw in economies in Europe and Japan. It also would mark an unwinding of the G7 consensus⁸ that markets ought to set the value of currencies.

　　危险在于，如果美国开始压低美元汇率，它可能引发一场货币战争，其规模大于2008年全球金融危机后出现的小冲突。除了中国以外，这样的战争将卷入欧洲各经济体以及日本。它也将标志着7国集团(G7)共识（应该由市场决定货币的价值）的瓦解。

　　“We haven’t seen anything yet. If the president of the US begins talking the dollar down, we will have currency wars and it will make a mockery of previous things that we thought were wars,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman.

　　“大幕还未升起。如果美国总统开始用言论压低美元，我们将会见证的货币战争将使我们以往所称的战争像是搞笑，”布朗兄弟哈里曼银行(Brown Brothers Harriman)全球汇率策略主管马克?钱德勒(Marc Chandler)表示。

　　He argued that Mr Trump could end up unwinding the G7 view, triggering instability in financial markets and discouraging foreign investors⁹ from investing in US assets.

　　他提出，特朗普可能最终放弃G7的观点，引发金融市场不稳定，并阻碍外国投资者投资于美国资产。

　　“This is a case where the stirrings of a currency war could set the ground for a broader trade war,” said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell economist¹⁰ and author of The Dollar Trap.

　　“目前情况是，一场货币战争的鼓噪可能为一场全面的贸易战争开辟好战场，”康奈尔大学(Cornell)经济学家、《美元陷阱》(The Dollar Trap)作者埃斯瓦尔?普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示。

　　“It does raise the spectre of trade tensions with many of the US trading partners. Once you give up the strong dollar policy and start focusing on the [level of the] currency it does raise the prospect¹¹ of bringing to a head many of the trade tensions with key trading partners including Europe, Japan and China.”

　　“它确实引发了美国同许多贸易伙伴发生贸易紧张的幽灵。一旦你放弃强势美元政策，开始纠结于美元汇率水平，那确实会使美国与欧洲、日本和中国等主要贸易伙伴之间的贸易紧张白热化。”

　　It is far from clear that comments of the sort Mr Trump and Mr Scaramucci have made will achieve a sustainable reduction in the currency’s value. Some analysts¹² question the potency¹³ of such verbal interventions¹⁴, especially at a time when Mr Trump’s apparent willingness to advocate deficit-widening tax cuts could bring forward interest-rate rises and add to the dollar’s strength. Further, Mr Trump’s decision to criticise¹⁵ Chinese foreign exchange policies seem out of date: recently Beijing has not been seeking to push down its currency but rather to prop¹⁶ it up.

　　远非清楚的是，特朗普和斯卡拉穆奇发表的言论会不会实现美元汇率的持久降低。一些分析师质疑这种口头干预的效力，特别是鉴于眼下特朗普看上去愿意支持扩大赤字的减税措施，而这可能导致美联储加快升息步伐，从而加剧美元强势。此外，特朗普批评中国汇率政策的决定似乎过时：近期北京方面并没有试图压低人民币，而是在支撑人民币汇率。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

3 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

4 heed   

v.注意，留意；n.注意，留心

参考例句：

• You must take heed of what he has told.你要注意他所告诉的事。
• For the first time he had to pay heed to his appearance.这是他第一次非得注意自己的外表不可了。

5 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

6 fealty   

n.忠贞，忠节

参考例句：

• He swore fealty to the king.他宣誓效忠国王。
• If you are fealty and virtuous,then I would like to meet you.如果你孝顺善良，我很愿意认识你。

7 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

8 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

9 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

10 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

11 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

12 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

13 potency   

n. 效力，潜能

参考例句：

• Alcohol increases the drug's potency.酒精能增加这种毒品的效力。
• Sunscreen can lose its potency if left over winter in the bathroom cabinet.如果把防晒霜在盥洗室的壁橱里放一个冬天，就有可能失效。

14 interventions   

n.介入，干涉，干预( intervention的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Economic analysis of government interventions deserves detailed discussion. 政府对经济的干预应该给予充分的论述。 来自辞典例句
• The judge's frequent interventions made a mockery of justice. 法官的屡屡干预是对正义的践踏。 来自互联网

15 criticise   

v.批评，评论；非难

参考例句：

• Right and left have much cause to criticise government.左翼和右翼有很多理由批评政府。
• It is not your place to criticise or suggest improvements!提出批评或给予改进建议并不是你的责任！

16 prop   

vt.支撑；n.支柱，支撑物；支持者，靠山

参考例句：

• A worker put a prop against the wall of the tunnel to keep it from falling.一名工人用东西支撑住隧道壁好使它不会倒塌。
• The government does not intend to prop up declining industries.政府无意扶持不景气的企业。