2013年经济学人 反攻 The fightback

 

Finance and Economics;India's economy;The fightback;

财经；印度经济；反攻；

Undercurrents of optimism about reform, and some fighting talk, in India;

在印度经济改革势头良好、但仍存靡靡质疑之声的背后；

After a storm-tossed six months for the economy, India's authorities are trying to get things back on an even keel. On June 25th the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced measures to try to stabilise the rupee. It has lost a fifth of its value against the dollar in the past year (see chart), reflecting global woes¹ but also a slowdown in India and a drying up of capital inflows. Its decline is widely seen in India as a bad thing, stoking inflation and hurting firms with foreign-currency debt.

在国内经济度过了近六个月的风雨飘摇之后，印度政府开始着力如何将经济局势趋于稳定。6月25日，印度储备银行宣布了一系列措施，意图稳定卢比汇率。在过去的一年中，卢比对美元的汇率下挫近百分之二十（见下图），不仅反映出了全球经济之殇，还体现了印度本国经济增速放缓，进口资金枯竭的问题。这种下滑对印度来说普遍被视为不利因素，不仅通胀率随之节节攀升，对于举有外债的公司来说负担也更为沉重。

India has long shied away from letting fickle² foreigners buy government bonds, but the RBI this week loosened the rules to tempt³ in sovereign-wealth funds and other long-term investors⁴. It also slightly eased restrictions⁵ on Indian manufacturing and infrastructure⁶ firms seeking funds abroad.

印度向来都对一些不靠谱的外资对国债的收购请求采取规避的态度，但印度央行此次则对政策实施宽松，希望能够吸引到更多大笔的资金和长期投资意向人。一些从事制造业和基建工程的印度公司也在寻求外资助力的限制上得到了适度的放宽。

IKEA, a Swedish furniture chain, boosted morale⁷ by saying it would invest up to 1.5 billion EURO(1.9 billion Dollar) in India—although on closer inspection⁸ that sum was spread over many years. Coca-Cola followed suit with the announcement of an additional 3 billion Dollar in investment, taking the total earmarked for India by 2020 to 5 billion Dollar. A ratings agency proved oddly helpful, too: on June 25th Moody's signalled it would not follow Standard and Poor's and Fitch, which have both warned of a possible downgrade of India to junk status. Its rating, which hovers⁹ just within investment grade, remains¹⁰ stable, the agency said.

瑞典家居连锁巨头宜家公司宣布决定在印度投入15亿欧元（约19亿美元）资金——尽管这笔巨额投资被安排在数年时间里逐批投放，但也为当地经济的提振带来了利好消息。可口可乐公司也紧随其后，宣布将会追加30亿美元拨入印度市场，到2020年时印度将接受总额达50亿美元的投资。一家评级机构也出乎意料地帮了个忙：本月25日，穆迪宣布其不会跟随标普和惠誉之后，警告会将印度的信用评级降至垃圾级。穆迪确认，印度目前所拥有的投资级依然稳定。

The impact of all this? Not much. The rupee is still near record lows. Yet there is a feeling that a bleak¹¹ picture may be improving slightly, mainly thanks to a government reshuffle. Pranab Mukherjee, the finance minister, left his position on June 26th to contest the largely ceremonial post of the presidency¹². Mr Mukherjee, who presented his first budget in 1982, has had a disastrous¹³ stint¹⁴ as finance minister this time round, pursuing controversial tax claims against foreigners, including Vodafone; failing to tame the budget deficit¹⁵; and chairing troubleshooting committees that often fired ordnance¹⁶ at India's own feet.

上述的这些到底能派上多大的用场呢？只能说收效甚微。卢比汇率目前仍在其历史最低点附近徘徊，但随着政府部门及领导人的重新洗牌，也有预感认为惨淡的国内经济形式也许可以得到些许好转。印度财政部长普拉纳布·穆克吉在26日辞去了职务，并宣布将会参与下一届总统竞选的角逐。穆克吉部长在1982年初上任的时候第一次公布了他的财政预算，但就目前的经济状况来看，他任职期间的所作所为早已过分拮据不合时宜。比如针对如沃达丰这样的外资企业征税、缩减预算赤字失败、以及其领导的修正委员，最后往往被证明是搬起石头砸自己的脚。

Responsibility for the finance ministry¹⁷, for a time at least, has passed to Manmohan Singh, the prime minister. Although even less of a spring chicken—at 79, compared with Mr Mukherjee's 76—he has credentials¹⁸ as a reformer, having served as finance minister when India unveiled its liberalisation in 1991.

有关执掌国家财政大权的事宜，已经在近几年移交给了曼莫尼·辛格总理。与76岁的穆克吉相比，已79岁高龄的辛格更欠年龄上的优势，但他曾在1991年时任财政部长，那时的印度正在经历一系列的经济自由化改革，可以说辛格对于这场变革也是功不可没。

At the end of his career, the hope is that Mr Singh makes a stand and rams¹⁹ through budget cuts and vital changes on tax and foreign investment. “It could make a difference,” says an official. “He has a lot of credibility. It is an area that is close to his heart and his reputation will be much more on the line… The situation is tough so there is a limit to what can be done, but it is a mood-lifter.” His party, Congress, which leads the ruling coalition²⁰ and is run by Sonia Gandhi, its hereditary²¹ chief, is lukewarm about making tough decisions. But there are signs that it may have successfully wooed one or two smaller parties outside its present coalition, which may help it push tricky²² changes through parliament.

而辛格也被许多人寄望，能够在执政末期再加把力，促成预算削减和有关税制与外资的改革上。“局面一定会有所改变，”一位官员预测到，“他在这些议题上已经积累了不少经验和功绩，这是他的心之所向，但他的名誉也将会经受更多考验，很有可能晚节不保。目前形式仍然严峻，因此真正能够落实的项目也十分有限。但不管怎么说，这是一种士气上的鼓舞。”而主导联合政府、接任亡夫之位的领袖索尼娅·甘地所领导的印度国大党及议会对做出这些艰难决定的态度不温不火，但也有迹象显示，一些小型联合执政外的在野党则被这些议题吸引过来，帮助一些具有争议的法案在议会中通过。

The promise of a push on reforms has been made—and broken—consistently by the government for years. With a busy electoral timetable up to general elections in 2014, it may be harder to fulfil than ever. Still, others, stepping back from the hurly-burly, can see a silver lining²³ in India's great wobble, particularly the fall in the currency. T.C.A. Ranganathan, the chairman of Exim Bank of India, which finances trade, says: “The exchange rate has moved in our favour. I'm fairly happy.” He reckons a weaker rupee will help spur a long-awaited boom in manufacturing. Kaushik Basu, the government's chief economic adviser²⁴, no slouch on the need for reform, agrees. A cheaper currency means India is “getting an advantage for our export sector”. Perhaps, in time, that may prove more important than today's firefighting.

印度政府在过去几年中针对改革的承诺一直反口复舌，2014年的印度总统大选意味将会有更多的高层活动，届时部分工作和议题将会更难开展。但仍然有人渐渐淡出唇枪舌剑，在印度如今经济局势的剧烈震荡，尤其是货币持续贬值的趋势当中看到了希望。主管贸易注资的印度进出口银行主席T.C.A 阮甘那桑说：“我很高兴看到卢比汇率正在朝我们希望的方向发展。”他认为，卢比的持续疲软可以帮助完成一次久盼未临的制造业昌旺。一向对经济改革信誓旦旦的印度政府首席经济顾问巴素也认同这一观点。廉价货币对印度的出口业来说“可能是一种优势”。时间会证明，这一切将会比现在的改革与保守派之争更为至关重要。

1 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

2 fickle   

adj.(爱情或友谊上)易变的，不坚定的

参考例句：

• Fluctuating prices usually base on a fickle public's demand.物价的波动往往是由于群众需求的不稳定而引起的。
• The weather is so fickle in summer.夏日的天气如此多变。

3 tempt   

vt.引诱，勾引，吸引，引起…的兴趣

参考例句：

• Nothing could tempt him to such a course of action.什么都不能诱使他去那样做。
• The fact that she had become wealthy did not tempt her to alter her frugal way of life.她有钱了，可这丝毫没能让她改变节俭的生活习惯。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

6 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

7 morale   

n.道德准则，士气，斗志

参考例句：

• The morale of the enemy troops is sinking lower every day.敌军的士气日益低落。
• He tried to bolster up their morale.他尽力鼓舞他们的士气。

8 inspection   

n.检查，审查，检阅

参考例句：

• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。
• The soldiers lined up for their daily inspection by their officers.士兵们列队接受军官的日常检阅。

9 hovers   

鸟( hover的第三人称单数 )； 靠近（某事物）； （人）徘徊； 犹豫

参考例句：

• A hawk hovers in the sky. 一只老鹰在天空盘旋。
• A hen hovers her chicks. 一只母鸡在孵小鸡。

10 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

11 bleak   

adj.(天气)阴冷的；凄凉的；暗淡的

参考例句：

• They showed me into a bleak waiting room.他们引我来到一间阴冷的会客室。
• The company's prospects look pretty bleak.这家公司的前景异常暗淡。

12 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

13 disastrous   

adj.灾难性的，造成灾害的；极坏的，很糟的

参考例句：

• The heavy rainstorm caused a disastrous flood.暴雨成灾。
• Her investment had disastrous consequences.She lost everything she owned.她的投资结果很惨，血本无归。

14 stint   

v.节省，限制，停止；n.舍不得化，节约，限制；连续不断的一段时间从事某件事

参考例句：

• He lavished money on his children without stint.他在孩子们身上花钱毫不吝惜。
• We hope that you will not stint your criticism.我们希望您不吝指教。

15 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

16 ordnance   

n.大炮，军械

参考例句：

• She worked in an ordnance factory during the war.战争期间她在一家兵工厂工作。
• Shoes and clothing for the army were scarce,ordnance supplies and drugs were scarcer.军队很缺鞋和衣服，武器供应和药品就更少了。

17 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

18 credentials   

n.证明，资格，证明书，证件

参考例句：

• He has long credentials of diplomatic service.他的外交工作资历很深。
• Both candidates for the job have excellent credentials.此项工作的两个求职者都非常符合资格。

19 rams   

n.公羊( ram的名词复数 )；(R-)白羊（星）座；夯；攻城槌v.夯实（土等）( ram的第三人称单数 )；猛撞；猛压；反复灌输

参考例句：

• A couple of rams are butting at each other. 两只羊正在用角互相抵触。 来自辞典例句
• More than anything the rams helped to break what should have been on interminable marriage. 那些牡羊比任何东西都更严重地加速了他们那本该天长地久的婚姻的破裂。 来自辞典例句

20 coalition   

n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合

参考例句：

• The several parties formed a coalition.这几个政党组成了政治联盟。
• Coalition forces take great care to avoid civilian casualties.联盟军队竭尽全力避免造成平民伤亡。

21 hereditary   

adj.遗传的，遗传性的，可继承的，世袭的

参考例句：

• The Queen of England is a hereditary ruler.英国女王是世袭的统治者。
• In men,hair loss is hereditary.男性脱发属于遗传。

22 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

23 lining   

n.衬里，衬料

参考例句：

• The lining of my coat is torn.我的外套衬里破了。
• Moss makes an attractive lining to wire baskets.用苔藓垫在铁丝篮里很漂亮。

24 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。