The surge of omicron cases in the U.S. may have started to peak

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The surge of omicron cases in the U.S. may have started to peak

Transcript¹

Researchers say signs are emerging that the omicron surge may have begun to peak in some parts of the country, and could peak nationally quickly. Others are more cautious.

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Could the omicron surge be starting to peak in the United States? Some researchers see early signs in some areas of the country. NPR health correspondent Rob Stein joins us now. Rob, good morning.

ROB STEIN, BYLINE²: Good morning, Steve.

INSKEEP: What's the evidence?

STEIN: Well, you know, Steve, as you know, I've been here many other times during the pandemic with hope that the worst may finally be over, and as - we know how that turned out. So honestly, I'm a little hesitant to even be talking about this. But there are some hopeful hints, at least in some places, you know, like parts of the country that got hit hardest first. Infections look like they might be coming down in New York, New Jersey³, Massachusetts. The number of people catching⁴ the virus every day is falling here in Washington, D.C., too, and nearby in Maryland. Here's Dr. David Rubin, who tracks the pandemic at the PolicyLab in Children's Hospital in Philadelphia. He says the number of people flooding into emergency rooms in the Northeast looks like it's slowing, and the percentage of school staff testing positive in the Philadelphia area has dropped dramatically.

DAVID RUBIN: That to us is a very clear indication that the crisis is beginning to subside⁵, and we are likely moving in the right direction. I think we're starting to move towards better days.

STEIN: In fact, Rubin thinks the omicron wave will soon crest⁶ in other parts of the country and then nationally in the next week or two, just like it did in South Africa and the U.K.

INSKEEP: Do other researchers agree with that optimistic assessment⁷?

STEIN: You know, Steve, it depends who you talk to. Some do; some don't. One who does is Ali Mokdad at the University of Washington. He goes even further in some ways. He says because the omicron surge looks like it is peaking and it looks like it tends to be milder, especially for vaccinated⁸ people, the country should focus on keeping society open as we get through this. That means prioritizing tests for people who need them most and enabling people who test positive to return to work as quickly as possible.

ALI MOKDAD: I think we should change our approach to omicron and say, let's go back to normal. Skies are not falling. Calm down. This is going to go away, and thus we need to go back to our normal lives and now focus on economy.

STEIN: You know, while still being careful as the surge subsides⁹ and making sure we protect the most vulnerable, like the elderly.

INSKEEP: What's the case for the other side, the more pessimistic case?

STEIN: Right, right. You know, most of the experts I've been talking to agree there are encouraging clues, but they say it's really just too soon to know anything for sure. You know, this virus has surprised us so many times. Anything's possible. Here's Jennifer Nuzzo at Johns Hopkins.

JENNIFER NUZZO: We have seen before a turn-down only to be followed by another acceleration¹⁰. And there's real danger in giving people the sense that they can kind of relax their worries prematurely¹¹.

STEIN: And Nuzzo points out that the omicron surge has already hit record-high levels. So even if infections are peaking and will fall quickly, the toll¹² of this terrible surge is likely to have a long tail.

INSKEEP: Let's talk about what you mean by a long tail.

STEIN: Yeah. So, you know, more than 800,000 people are catching the virus on average every day now, and the surge is still accelerating in many parts of the country. The number of people getting so sick they need to be hospitalized is already at record-high levels. And that'll get worse before it gets better in many places, even with infections falling. And more than 1,700 people are dying from COVID-19 every day on average, and that will probably continue to climb, too, even after infections ebb¹³ for some weeks. So whatever happens in the next month or so, it is still going to be pretty rough.

INSKEEP: Good reminder¹⁴ that hospitalizations and deaths are what they call lagging indicators¹⁵. They increase later than other factors, right?

STEIN: That's right. That's right. Usually, it takes a week or two after infections start to peak before hospitalizations start to peak, and then it takes a few days, maybe a week after that, before deaths start to peak. So, you know, these things trail off kind of slowly and then steps down.

INSKEEP: Rob, thanks for the update. Really appreciate it.

STEIN: You bet, Steve.

INSKEEP: The best assessment we have, from NPR health correspondent Rob Stein.

(SOUNDBITE OF EVOCATIV'S "INTERLUDE")

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 jersey   

n.运动衫

参考例句：

• He wears a cotton jersey when he plays football.他穿运动衫踢足球。
• They were dressed alike in blue jersey and knickers.他们穿着一致，都是蓝色的运动衫和灯笼短裤。

4 catching   

adj.易传染的，有魅力的，迷人的，接住

参考例句：

• There are those who think eczema is catching.有人就是认为湿疹会传染。
• Enthusiasm is very catching.热情非常富有感染力。

5 subside   

vi.平静，平息；下沉，塌陷，沉降

参考例句：

• The emotional reaction which results from a serious accident takes time to subside.严重事故所引起的情绪化的反应需要时间来平息。
• The controversies surrounding population growth are unlikely to subside soon.围绕着人口增长问题的争论看来不会很快平息。

6 crest   

n.顶点；饰章；羽冠；vt.达到顶点；vi.形成浪尖

参考例句：

• The rooster bristled his crest.公鸡竖起了鸡冠。
• He reached the crest of the hill before dawn.他于黎明前到达山顶。

7 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

8 vaccinated   

[医]已接种的，种痘的，接种过疫菌的

参考例句：

• I was vaccinated against tetanus. 我接种了破伤风疫苗。
• Were you vaccinated against smallpox as a child? 你小时候打过天花疫苗吗？

9 subsides   

v.（土地）下陷（因在地下采矿）( subside的第三人称单数 )；减弱；下降至较低或正常水平；一下子坐在椅子等上

参考例句：

• Emotion swells and subsides. 情绪忽高忽低。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• His emotion swells and subsides. 他的情绪忽高忽低。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

10 acceleration   

n.加速，加速度

参考例句：

• All spacemen must be able to bear acceleration.所有太空人都应能承受加速度。
• He has also called for an acceleration of political reforms.他同时呼吁加快政治改革的步伐。

11 prematurely   

adv.过早地，贸然地

参考例句：

• She was born prematurely with poorly developed lungs. 她早产，肺部未发育健全。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• His hair was prematurely white, but his busy eyebrows were still jet-black. 他的头发已经白了，不过两道浓眉还是乌黑乌黑的。 来自辞典例句

12 toll   

n.过路(桥)费；损失，伤亡人数；v.敲(钟)

参考例句：

• The hailstone took a heavy toll of the crops in our village last night.昨晚那场冰雹损坏了我们村的庄稼。
• The war took a heavy toll of human life.这次战争夺去了许多人的生命。

13 ebb   

vi.衰退，减退；n.处于低潮，处于衰退状态

参考例句：

• The flood and ebb tides alternates with each other.涨潮和落潮交替更迭。
• They swam till the tide began to ebb.他们一直游到开始退潮。

14 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

15 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。