美国国家公共电台 NPR--People are gathering for the Fed's annual meeting in Jackson Hole

People are gathering¹ for the Fed's annual meeting in Jackson Hole

Transcript²

The markets are watching as the Federal Reserve holds its annual meeting in Wyoming. NPR's A Martinez talks to David Wessel of the Brookings Institution for a preview.

A MART?NEZ, HOST:

The Federal Reserve's annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyo., opens tonight. The markets will be closely watching and listening for Fed chair Jerome Powell's speech tomorrow as the central bank continues to wage its battle against inflation. For more on why there is so much attention on Powell's address, we turn now to David Wessel. He's the director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution and a frequent guest on this program. So, David, what might be on Jay Powell's mind these days?

DAVID WESSEL: Well, inflation, for sure. Inflation's running at a 40-year high. The Fed has been raising interest rates and almost certainly will do so again when it meets in September. But until very recently, financial markets have been betting that the Fed has successfully slowed the U.S. economy and is essentially³ winning the war against inflation. In fact, there's even speculation⁴ that it may cut interest rates next year. But Jay Powell and his colleagues have been pushing back on that, saying their top priority is making sure that inflation moves down towards their 2% target. And he knows that markets and analysts⁵, as you said, will be weighing every word carefully.

Ben Bernanke, the former Fed chair, once said, half-joking, that monetary⁶ policy is 98% talk and 2% action because markets move when they - on what they expect the Fed to do. So Powell is likely trying to convince markets that interest rates are going up. They're going to stay up for a while, until the Fed wrings⁷ inflation out of the economy, even if that risks a recession in 2023 or 2024.

MART?NEZ: Yeah, I imagine the financial markets will be paying attention, so will big-time stock traders, small-time stock traders. I hear my brother ask me all the time, do you know anything? For the millionth time, no, I don't. They all care about this.

WESSEL: (Laughter).

MART?NEZ: They all do. What difference does it make to him or to ordinary old me?

WESSEL: Well, look; monetary policy works through financial markets. When the Fed moves its target for short-term interest rates, that ripples⁸ through the financial system. It raises the interest rates that people like you get on your savings⁹, if you have any, and the rates they pay on credit cards, car loans and mortgages. Mortgages move up and down with the bond market, which moves up and down as expectations about what the Fed's going to do change. So like at the end of 2021, you could get a 30-year fixed¹⁰ rate mortgage at around 3%. Today it's over 5%, and that is directly related to what the Fed is doing.

MART?NEZ: All right, David, here's the question some might dread¹¹. How much higher do you expect the Fed to take interest rates?

WESSEL: Well, it's important to remember that the Fed started from zero. It cut interest rates to zero during the pandemic. It's raised interest rates by about 2 1/4 percentage points so far this year. And both Fed officials and financial markets now expect rates to go up by at least another full percentage point by the end of this year and maybe even more. Now, it's interesting. There's a lot less consensus¹² about what happens after that, and that depends a lot on what happens with inflation, whether it abates¹³, as the Fed hopes, or whether it proves persistent¹⁴.

MART?NEZ: Is there more likely to come out of Jackson Hole than just the Powell speech?

WESSEL: Well, Powell will speak tomorrow morning, and the Fed chair's speech is always the main event. Interestingly, last year when Jay Powell spoke¹⁵, the conference was virtual because of COVID. He was talking about why he didn't expect inflation to be a problem. So that won't be his theme this year. There are also some serious academic papers, and they often turn out to be really important in identifying significant issues that aren't getting a lot of attention, while everybody speculates on what the Fed's next move going to be.

This year, they're talking a lot about how the COVID pandemic may have affected¹⁶ the economy, whether the pandemic is having lasting¹⁷ effects on productivity, why people aren't coming back to work. And there's also one on the challenges that the Fed faces in shrinking the enormous portfolio¹⁸ of bonds that it bought during the pandemic. But look; there's a lot of reporters at the conference and officials at the Fed from foreign central bankers, so there's likely to be stories to capture the very latest thinking about the challenges the world economy faces.

MART?NEZ: David, Jackson Hole, Wyo. - I've heard celebrities¹⁹ go there a lot. It's very beautiful. It's right by the Grand Tetons National Park. It's very far, though, from the Fed's headquarters in Washington and also from Wall Street. So how did Jackson Hole become such a big player in global central banking²⁰?

WESSEL: That's a good question. So the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, the host, organized the first conference in Jackson Hole in 1982, and every Fed chair has spoken from that podium since Alan Greenspan in 1989. His successors used the occasion to make big speeches - Bernanke on quantitative²¹ easing, Powell unveiled a new framework on monetary policy there. So it always gets attention. And it's such a beautiful place that it draws a good crowd of prominent officials and prominent academic economists²², and that makes for very lively and interesting conversations at the dinner table or on the hiking trails, beyond the formal program.

MART?NEZ: Unfortunately, with inflation, I can't afford to buy a ticket to Jackson Hole. David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution. Thanks a lot, David.

WESSEL: They wouldn't sell you one anyways. You're welcome.

1 gathering   

n.集会，聚会，聚集

参考例句：

• He called on Mr. White to speak at the gathering.他请怀特先生在集会上讲话。
• He is on the wing gathering material for his novels.他正忙于为他的小说收集资料。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

4 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

5 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

6 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

7 wrings   

绞( wring的第三人称单数 )； 握紧（尤指别人的手）； 把（湿衣服）拧干； 绞掉（水）

参考例句：

• And so that interview Between Lucie and Sydney Carton has a pathos that wrings our hearts. 因此，露西和西德尼·卡登之间的会晤带有一种使我们感到揪心的凄楚的气氛。 来自英汉 - 翻译样例 - 文学
• The girl wrings her dress dry. 这个女孩子扭乾她的衣服。

8 ripples   

逐渐扩散的感觉( ripple的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The moon danced on the ripples. 月亮在涟漪上舞动。
• The sea leaves ripples on the sand. 海水在沙滩上留下了波痕。

9 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

10 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

11 dread   

vt.担忧，忧虑；惧怕，不敢；n.担忧，畏惧

参考例句：

• We all dread to think what will happen if the company closes.我们都不敢去想一旦公司关门我们该怎么办。
• Her heart was relieved of its blankest dread.她极度恐惧的心理消除了。

12 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

13 abates   

减少( abate的第三人称单数 )； 减去； 降价； 撤消（诉讼）

参考例句：

• Unless inflation abates, more countries will adopt some form of inflation accounting. 除非通货膨胀率下降，否则将有更多的国家采用某种形式的通货膨胀会计。
• As mating, and fighting abates, males dip again and begin returning inland. 交配和打斗过后，雄性螃蟹再蘸一蘸潮湿的海水，回到内陆。

14 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

15 spoke   

n.（车轮的）辐条；轮辐；破坏某人的计划；阻挠某人的行动 v.讲，谈（speak的过去式）；说；演说；从某种观点来说

参考例句：

• They sourced the spoke nuts from our company.他们的轮辐螺帽是从我们公司获得的。
• The spokes of a wheel are the bars that connect the outer ring to the centre.辐条是轮子上连接外圈与中心的条棒。

16 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

17 lasting   

adj.永久的，永恒的；vbl.持续，维持

参考例句：

• The lasting war debased the value of the dollar.持久的战争使美元贬值。
• We hope for a lasting settlement of all these troubles.我们希望这些纠纷能获得永久的解决。

18 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

19 celebrities   

n.（尤指娱乐界的）名人( celebrity的名词复数 )；名流；名声；名誉

参考例句：

• He only invited A-list celebrities to his parties. 他只邀请头等名流参加他的聚会。
• a TV chat show full of B-list celebrities 由众多二流人物参加的电视访谈节目

20 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

21 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

22 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》