美国国家公共电台 NPR--Flu is expected to flare up in U.S. this winter, raising fears of a 'twindemic'

Flu is expected to flare¹ up in U.S. this winter, raising fears of a 'twindemic'

Transcript²

The flu virtually disappeared for two years as the pandemic raged. But influenza³ appears poised⁴ to stage a comeback this year in the U.S., threatening to cause a long-feared "twindemic."

While the flu and the coronavirus are both notoriously unpredictable, there's a good chance COVID cases will surge again this winter, and troubling signs that the flu could return too.

"This could very well be the year in which we see a twindemic," says Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease professor at Vanderbilt University. "That is, we have a surge in COVID and simultaneously⁵ an increase in influenza. We could have them both affecting our population at the same time."

The strongest indication that the flu could hit the U.S. this winter is what happened during the Southern Hemisphere's winter. Flu returned to some countries, such as Australia, where the respiratory infection started ramping⁶ up months earlier than normal, and caused one of the worst flu seasons in recent years.

What happens in the Southern Hemisphere's winter often foreshadows what's going to happen north of the equator.

"If we have a serious influenza season, and if the omicron variants⁷ continue to cause principally mild disease, this coming winter could be a much worse flu season than COVID," Schaffner warns.

And the combination of the two viruses could seriously strain the health system, he says. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that flu causes between 140,00 and 710,000 hospitalizations annually⁸.

"We should be worried," says Dr. Richard Webby, an infectious disease specialist at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. "I don't necessarily think it's run-for-the-hills worried. But we need to be worried."

The main reason the flu basically disappeared the last two years was the behavior changes people made to avoid COVID, such as staying home, avoiding public gatherings⁹, wearing masks, and not traveling. That prevented flu viruses from spreading too. But those measures have mostly been abandoned.

"As the community mitigation measures start to roll off around the world and people return to their normal activities, flu has started to circulate around the world," says Dr. Alicia Fry, who leads influenza epidemiology and prevention for the CDC. "We can expect a flu season this year — for sure."

Young kids at especially high risk

The CDC is reporting that the flu is already starting to spread in parts of the south, such as Texas. And experts caution very young kids may be especially at risk this year.

Though COVID-19 generally has been mild for young people, the flu typically poses the biggest threat to both the elderly and children. The main strain of flu that's currently circulating, H3N2, tends to hit the elderly hard. But health experts are also worried about young children who have not been exposed to flu for two years.

"You have the 1-year-olds, the 2-year-olds, and the 3-year-olds who will all be seeing it for the first time, and none of them have any preexisting immunity¹⁰ to influenza," says Dr. Helen Chu, assistant professor of medicine and allergy¹¹ and infectious diseases and an adjunct assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Washington.

In fact, the flu does appear to have hit younger people especially hard in Australia.

"We know that schools are really the places where influenza spreads. They're really considered the drivers of transmission," Chu says. "They'll be the spreaders. They will then take it home to the parents. The parents will then take it to the workplace. They'll take it to the grandparents who are in assisted living, nursing home. And then those populations will then get quite sick with the flu."

"I think we're heading into a bad flu season," Chu says.

'Viral interference' could offset¹² the risks

Some experts doubt COVID and flu will hit the country simultaneously because of a phenomenon known as "viral interference," which occurs when infection with one virus reduces the risk of catching¹³ another. That's an additional possible reason why flu disappeared the last two years.

"These two viruses may still both occur during the same season, but my gut¹⁴ feeling is they're going to happen sequentially rather than both at the same time," Webby says. "So I'm less concerned about the twindemic."

Nevertheless, Webby and others are urging people to make sure everyone in the family gets a flu shot as soon as possible, especially if the flu season arrives early in the U.S. too. (Most years officials don't start pushing people to get their flu shots until October.)

So far it looks like this year's flu vaccines¹⁶ are a good match with the circulating strains and so should provide effective protection.

But health officials fear fewer people will get flu shots this year than usual because of anti-vaccine¹⁵ sentiment that increased in reaction to COVID vaccinations¹⁷. Flu vaccine rates are already lagging.

"We are worried that people will not get vaccinated¹⁸. And influenza vaccine is the best prevention tool that we have," the CDC's Fry says.

Fry also hopes that some of the habits people developed to fight COVID will continue and help blunt the impact of the flu.

"The wild card here is we don't know how many mitigation practices people will use," Fry says. "For example, people now stay home when they're sick instead of going to work. They keep their kids out of school. Schools are strict about not letting kids come to school if their sick. All of these types of things could reduce transmission."

1 flare   

v.闪耀，闪烁；n.潮红；突发

参考例句：

• The match gave a flare.火柴发出闪光。
• You need not flare up merely because I mentioned your work.你大可不必因为我提到你的工作就动怒。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 influenza   

n.流行性感冒，流感

参考例句：

• They took steps to prevent the spread of influenza.他们采取措施
• Influenza is an infectious disease.流感是一种传染病。

4 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

5 simultaneously   

adv.同时发生地，同时进行地

参考例句：

• The radar beam can track a number of targets almost simultaneously.雷达波几乎可以同时追着多个目标。
• The Windows allow a computer user to execute multiple programs simultaneously.Windows允许计算机用户同时运行多个程序。

6 ramping   

土堤斜坡( ramp的现在分词 )； 斜道； 斜路； （装车或上下飞机的）活动梯

参考例句：

• The children love ramping about in the garden. 孩子们喜欢在花园里追逐嬉戏，闹着玩。
• Have you ever seen a lion ramping around? 你看到过狮子暴跳吗？

7 variants   

n.变体( variant的名词复数 )；变种；变型；（词等的）变体

参考例句：

• Those variants will be preserved in the'struggle for existence". 这些变异将在“生存竞争”中被保留下来。 来自辞典例句
• Like organisms, viruses have variants, generally called strains. 与其他生物一样，病毒也有变种，一般称之为株系。 来自辞典例句

8 annually   

adv.一年一次，每年

参考例句：

• Many migratory birds visit this lake annually.许多候鸟每年到这个湖上作短期逗留。
• They celebrate their wedding anniversary annually.他们每年庆祝一番结婚纪念日。

9 gatherings   

聚集( gathering的名词复数 )； 收集； 采集； 搜集

参考例句：

• His conduct at social gatherings created a lot of comment. 他在社交聚会上的表现引起许多闲话。
• During one of these gatherings a pupil caught stealing. 有一次，其中一名弟子偷窃被抓住。

10 immunity   

n.优惠；免除；豁免，豁免权

参考例句：

• The law gives public schools immunity from taxation.法律免除公立学校的纳税义务。
• He claims diplomatic immunity to avoid being arrested.他要求外交豁免以便避免被捕。

11 allergy   

n.(因食物、药物等而引起的)过敏症

参考例句：

• He developed an allergy to pollen.他对花粉过敏。
• The patient had an allergy to penicillin.该患者对青霉素过敏。

12 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

13 catching   

adj.易传染的，有魅力的，迷人的，接住

参考例句：

• There are those who think eczema is catching.有人就是认为湿疹会传染。
• Enthusiasm is very catching.热情非常富有感染力。

14 gut   

n.[pl.]胆量；内脏；adj.本能的；vt.取出内脏

参考例句：

• It is not always necessary to gut the fish prior to freezing.冷冻鱼之前并不总是需要先把内脏掏空。
• My immediate gut feeling was to refuse.我本能的直接反应是拒绝。

15 vaccine   

n.牛痘苗，疫苗；adj.牛痘的，疫苗的

参考例句：

• The polio vaccine has saved millions of lives.脊髓灰质炎疫苗挽救了数以百万计的生命。
• She takes a vaccine against influenza every fall.她每年秋季接种流感疫苗。

16 vaccines   

疫苗，痘苗( vaccine的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His team are at the forefront of scientific research into vaccines. 他的小组处于疫苗科研的最前沿。
• The vaccines were kept cool in refrigerators. 疫苗放在冰箱中冷藏。

17 vaccinations   

n.种痘，接种( vaccination的名词复数 )；牛痘疤

参考例句：

• Vaccinations ensure one against diseases. 接种疫苗可以预防疾病。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• I read some publicity about vaccinations while waiting my turn at the doctor's. 在医生那儿候诊时，我读了一些关于接种疫苗的宣传。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 vaccinated   

[医]已接种的，种痘的，接种过疫菌的

参考例句：

• I was vaccinated against tetanus. 我接种了破伤风疫苗。
• Were you vaccinated against smallpox as a child? 你小时候打过天花疫苗吗？