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(单词翻译:双击或拖选)
Poll: Dangers for both parties on the economy, crime and transgender rights
The economy continues to dominate as the most important issue facing the country, followed by preserving democracy, according to the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
Democrats3 face vulnerabilities when it comes to the economy, crime and whether to ban TikTok, while Republicans risk overstepping on transgender rights and business practices, the survey found.
"The image of the Republican Party has gotten even more extreme than it was" before the 2020 election, said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the survey. "If winning the election in 2024 is predicated on picking up some swing voters in the middle, they're moving in the opposite direction.
"For the Democrats, as much as the progressive wing is allowing President Biden some freedom to move toward the middle, you look at the issues on the economy and crime, and he is not where he wants to be in tying down the middle, either."
The survey of 1,327 adults, including 1,226 registered voters, was conducted March 20 through Thursday, March 23 via live telephone callers to cellphones and landlines, through online research panels and via text message in English and in Spanish. It has a margin4 of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, meaning results have a range of about 4 points lower or higher than the number reported.
The top issues facing the country
With inflation stubbornly high and interest rates increasing, there is plenty of economic uncertainty5 at the moment, and it remains6 the top issue for respondents in the survey — 31% said so, followed by preserving democracy (20%).
No other issue broke double-digits. Health care was third at 9%, then immigration and climate change at 8%. Crime, gun policy, abortion7 and education rounded out the topics people were asked about.
The policy priorities, as expected, are different by party — with Republicans and independents more focused on the economy and Democrats saying preserving democracy is tops, followed by the economy, health care and climate change.
Immigration and preserving democracy followed the economy for Republicans.
Biden struggles on the economy and crime
When it comes to the economy, Biden continues to get poor marks.
Just 38% approve of how he's handling it, including just 28% of independents. The White House and Democratic strategists know Biden, who is expected to run for reelection, has to improve in how Americans view him on the economy in the next year and a half before the 2024 election.
Overall, Biden gets a 42% job approval rating. That's about where it had been before his State of the Union address in February. An NPR survey that month, taken after Biden's address, showed him getting a slight bounce. That appears to have receded8.
On crime, Biden is particularly vulnerable. Just 35% approve of how he's handling it, including just 27% of independents. There is a lack of approval across some key Democratic coalition9 groups, too, like nonwhites (37%) and people under 45 (34%).
Even though crime continues to not register as a top issue in polling, most people, by a 68%-to-31% margin, said it is a real threat to most communities and not an issue blown out of proportion by politicians as a way to win voters.
That includes 58% of Democrats and 7 in 10 independents. Notably10, nonwhites, who are a pillar Democratic group, are among the most likely to say it's a real threat. That's in line with several core groups vital to former President Donald Trump's political fortunes — whites without college degrees, white evangelical Christians11 and people who live in small towns.
Republicans have focused on increases in crime and brazen12 acts like smash-and-grabs and carjackings in big cities across the country.
Republicans vulnerable on transgender rights and business practices
Republican governors, legislatures and candidates across the country have focused on gender1 identity issues, something they see as a political wedge issue.
There is some evidence for that — 50% in the 2022 midterm exit polls, for example, said society's values on gender identity and sexual orientation13 are changing for the worse.
And there has been an increase in support for criminalizing gender transition-related medical care for minors15, from 28% in April of 2021 to 43% now. Almost two-thirds of Republicans support it.
But Republicans risk going too far. A majority, 54%, still oppose criminalizing this type of medical care, including 56% of independents.
There is also a big split between parents of children who are under 18 and those without kids — 59% of parents support criminalizing the practice, while 59% of people who aren't parents are opposed.
What's more, a majority of respondents said they oppose laws that would restrict drag shows or performances in their states. Earlier this month, Tennessee passed a bill to do just that, while in more than a dozen other states, there are GOP efforts afoot to do the same.
But the majority is not on their side — 58% oppose such laws. Republicans, on yet another issue, stand out against the majority, as 61% support these laws. Just a quarter of Democrats and fewer than 4 in 10 independents do.
It's a similar story when it comes to socially conscious business practices.
Three-quarters said it would be more important to invest their money with companies that make money, but are also mindful of their business practices and impact on the environment and society, as opposed to investing in companies that make the most money regardless.
Even 63% of Republicans said they would rather invest with companies mindful of their impact on the environment and society. Many in the GOP have made ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) and DEI (Diversity, Equity16 and Inclusion) practices in companies bogey17 men.
Some Republicans blamed the recent collapse18 of Silicon19 Valley Bank, for example, on these practices, when, in reality, the bank's collapse was the result of bad investments, increased interest rates and depositors asking for their money back.
Younger people, in particular, believe in universal health care
Despite the patchwork20 health care system in this country, 83% said they believe that all Americans have a basic right to health care coverage21. That includes 7 in 10 Republicans.
The disagreement comes in the intensity22 of that belief — and with who provides it.
Three-quarters of Democrats and 61% of independents strongly agree that health care is a basic right, while just a quarter of Republicans feel that way.
When asked if people think it's the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health care coverage, almost two-thirds say yes. That includes 9 in 10 Democrats, a majority (57%) of independents, but just a third of Republicans.
While "government" continues to be the brightest of dividing lines in this country, what also stands out on this question is the generational divide. Three-quarters of members of the Gen Z and Millennial23 generations say it's the government's responsibility, but just 60% of Gen Xers do, followed by 56% of Baby Boomers and 49% of the Silent/Greatest generation.
The finding is yet another example of younger Americans being more likely to want the government to step in on pocketbook issues, like raising taxes on the wealthy to help close the national debt and raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour.
The clock is ticking on TikTok, but there's a risk for Biden
A majority of Americans support a ban on the popular social media app TikTok — 57% said so.
Three quarters said TikTok represents either a major or minor14 threat to national security. And it's bipartisan — 7 in 10 Democrats and 8 in 10 Republicans see it the same way, though Republicans are more likely to see TikTok as a major threat.
There's a generational divide here, which is to be expected, considering younger Americans are more likely to use the app. Gen Z and Millennials, though they are split, are less likely to support a ban, and they are far less likely to see it as a national security threat.
Fifty-one percent of Gen Z/Millennials oppose banning TikTok, the most of any group, and just 27% see it as a major threat, the least of any group.
Biden has a precarious24 decision to make on TikTok. Ahead of his expected run for reelection, he has to balance whether to ban something the intelligence community clearly sees as a potential national security risk — or to finesse25 something less than a ban to stem the potential loss of support among a key voting demographic group that lives online.
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gender
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| n.（生理上的）性，（名词、代词等的）性 | |
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transcript
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| n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书 | |
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democrats
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| n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 ) | |
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margin
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| n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘 | |
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uncertainty
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| n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物 | |
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remains
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| n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹 | |
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abortion
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| n.流产，堕胎 | |
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receded
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| v.逐渐远离( recede的过去式和过去分词 )；向后倾斜；自原处后退或避开别人的注视；尤指问题 | |
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coalition
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| n.结合体，同盟，结合，联合 | |
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notably
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| adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地 | |
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Christians
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| n.基督教徒( Christian的名词复数 ) | |
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brazen
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| adj.厚脸皮的，无耻的，坚硬的 | |
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orientation
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| n.方向，目标；熟悉，适应，情况介绍 | |
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minor
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| adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修 | |
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minors
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| n.未成年人( minor的名词复数 )；副修科目；小公司；[逻辑学]小前提v.[主美国英语]副修，选修，兼修( minor的第三人称单数 ) | |
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equity
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| n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票 | |
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bogey
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| n.令人谈之变色之物；妖怪，幽灵 | |
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collapse
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| vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷 | |
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silicon
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| n.硅(旧名矽) | |
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patchwork
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| n.混杂物；拼缝物 | |
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coverage
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| n.报导，保险范围，保险额，范围，覆盖 | |
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intensity
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| n.强烈，剧烈；强度；烈度 | |
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millennial
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| 一千年的，千福年的 | |
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precarious
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| adj.不安定的，靠不住的；根据不足的 | |
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finesse
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| n.精密技巧，灵巧，手腕 | |
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