美国国家公共电台 NPR--Turkey's presidential election is expected to seal Erdogan's political fate

Turkey's presidential election is expected to seal Erdogan's political fate

Transcript¹

Presidential and parliamentary elections take place this Sunday in Turkey, and could bring an end to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's two-decade rule.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

On Sunday, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will face the biggest challenge to his grip on power since first taking the reins² as prime minister two decades ago. In those 20 years, he's morphed from a Democratic figure favored by the West into what people call Turkey's new autocrat³. And Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, says this election will seal Erdogan's political fate.

SONER CAGAPTAY: Either two decades of rule by President Erdogan will come to an end and Turkey will revert⁴ back to democracy and rule of law. Or Erdogan will win, and he'll stay at Turkey's helm while he's alive as Turkey's new sultan.

FADEL: Erdogan's neck and neck at the polls with his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu. So he's campaigning around the country in advance of the vote.

(SOUNDBITE OF SONG, "RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN")

DJ PEDRO: (Singing) Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

FADEL: Suzy Hansen is a journalist who's covered much of Erdogan's time in office.

SUZY HANSEN: In the first 10 years, Erdogan was not a member or part of longtime political parties. He didn't have his own wealthy business class.

FADEL: So he built it, taking contracts away from the old secular⁵ business class and giving that business to his allies.

HANSEN: His party was also siphoning off funds from all of this largesse⁶. He was also distributing money through these charity networks that he had. So he was also building up loyalty⁷ within the lower classes or the middle class. You know, we often talk about authoritarian⁸ leaders. And they repress civil society. But I think that the question always is, well, how did they get away with repressing civil society? And it was in part because the rest of the country that was voting for him didn't really seem to mind because they were benefiting so much from his power.

FADEL: He was empowering a part of the country that had long felt ignored, people like him. Again, Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute.

CAGAPTAY: Having written his biography, I have concluded that Erdogan always felt second class because he was on the other side of the tracks. He was from a poor family. He was also on the other side of the tracks because he was from a conservative family that wanted to wear religion on their sleeves. At the time, Turkey was secularist⁹. And that meant that religion had no space in public policy, education or government. People like Erdogan and his family felt othered.

FADEL: And so Erdogan became what journalist Hansen describes as a genuine politician.

HANSEN: Erdogan was a community organizer. His election in 1994 as the mayor of Istanbul and then again in 2002, 2003 as prime minister was a democratic revolution. Now, he got lucky. There was a massive earthquake in Istanbul in 1999. And there was a massive financial crisis. So those two events had discredited¹⁰ all the previous political parties.

FADEL: Erdogan and his party were elected as the alternative. And Cagaptay says, while empowering himself and his party, he was also delivering on some of those voter demands.

CAGAPTAY: He has delivered growth, improved access to the services such as health care. And he has lifted so many people out of poverty that he genuinely has a base that loves him.

FADEL: But in the second decade of his time in office, Erdogan became a very different ruling figure.

HANSEN: He started facing a lot of threats, both from within his own party and from the opposition¹¹. And that was when he started centralizing power around his own person - changing the laws, changing the legal system, transforming the state - and then eventually changing the parliamentary system into this kind of super-presidency in which the entire state was organized around him.

FADEL: So was it his paranoia¹² that led him to this place? I mean, what would you say is the watershed¹³ moment?

HANSEN: I think the first time he was genuinely afraid for his own power was the 2013 Gezi protests, in which thousands of people objected to the building of a mall on a park in Istanbul.

(SOUNDBITE OF PROTEST)

UNIDENTIFIED PROTESTERS: (Chanting in non-English language).

HANSEN: And the protests spread to 70 cities around the country. And essentially¹⁴, this was an uprising against overdevelopment and corruption¹⁵. And the second was definitely the military coup¹⁶ in 2016.

(SHOUTING)

FADEL: That's when a faction¹⁷ of Turkey's military tried and failed to overthrow¹⁸ Erdogan. He called citizens into the streets to stop the military. Some 300 people died in clashes. And when his position was secured, he began a series of purges¹⁹ and mass arrests in the ranks of the military, the government, civil servants. And today, he's repressing his critics, jailing journalists, critics on social media, among others. Then came an economic downturn, and this year, earthquakes that have left Turks devastated²⁰.

(SHOUTING)

FADEL: Buildings collapsed²¹ and buried people alive. Tens of thousands died and millions more were made homeless. And many Turks blamed Erdogan for shoddy construction because he's accused of allowing developers to skirt safety rules. So it was an earthquake and a demand by voters that someone clean up corruption that brought Erdogan to power. And on Sunday, that same dynamic may sweep him out of power. But even before this, Erdogan was facing growing discontent.

HANSEN: People are hungry. People cannot afford meat. They can't afford food. They can't afford diapers. They can't afford, you know, basic things, the basic vegetables for the Turkish diet. You know, they're really struggling. I mean, I had one young man say to me, if you watch the Turkish news, which is controlled by Erdogan, all they're telling us is that life is great. And meanwhile, I can't afford onions. They see this contradiction. And I heard from so many people that they were going to change their vote this time.

FADEL: Erdogan has what looks like the advantage in this election. He still has a loyal base of support. He controls much of the media. He has almost full control of every branch of government. But that power has also united his opponents in a deeply polarized Turkey.

HANSEN: Six different parties are aligned²² against him. Those voters range from secularists to right-wing nationalists, to Kurds, which is a very unusual alliance. And so for him, we're looking at the possibility that after over 20 years in power that he will lose. But very few people think that he will go easily or quietly. If he loses, he would be facing at least half of the country that has been very angry at him for a long time.

FADEL: That was Suzy Hansen, a journalist who's covered Turkey for over a decade, and Soner Cagaptay. He's the director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute. On Sunday, if no one gets more than half the vote, there will be a runoff on May 28.

(SOUNDBITE OF MADVILLAIN AND FOUR TET'S "GREAT DAY (FOUR TET REMIX)")

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 reins   

感情，激情； 缰( rein的名词复数 )； 控制手段； 掌管； （成人带着幼儿走路以防其走失时用的）保护带

参考例句：

• She pulled gently on the reins. 她轻轻地拉着缰绳。
• The government has imposed strict reins on the import of luxury goods. 政府对奢侈品的进口有严格的控制手段。

3 autocrat   

n.独裁者；专横的人

参考例句：

• He was an accomplished politician and a crafty autocrat.他是个有造诣的政治家，也是个狡黠的独裁者。
• The nobles tried to limit the powers of the autocrat without success.贵族企图限制专制君主的权力,但没有成功。

4 revert   

v.恢复，复归，回到

参考例句：

• Let us revert to the earlier part of the chapter.让我们回到本章的前面部分。
• Shall we revert to the matter we talked about yesterday?我们接着昨天谈过的问题谈，好吗？

5 secular   

n.牧师，凡人；adj.世俗的，现世的，不朽的

参考例句：

• We live in an increasingly secular society.我们生活在一个日益非宗教的社会。
• Britain is a plural society in which the secular predominates.英国是个世俗主导的多元社会。

6 largesse   

n.慷慨援助，施舍

参考例句：

• She is not noted for her largesse.没人听说过她出手大方。
• Our people are in no need of richer nations' largesse.我国人民不需要富国的施舍。

7 loyalty   

n.忠诚，忠心

参考例句：

• She told him the truth from a sense of loyalty.她告诉他真相是出于忠诚。
• His loyalty to his friends was never in doubt.他对朋友的一片忠心从来没受到怀疑。

8 authoritarian   

n./adj.专制(的)，专制主义者，独裁主义者

参考例句：

• Foreign diplomats suspect him of authoritarian tendencies.各国外交官怀疑他有着独裁主义倾向。
• The authoritarian policy wasn't proved to be a success.独裁主义的政策证明并不成功。

9 secularist   

n.现世主义者，世俗主义者；宗教与教育分离论者

参考例句：

10 discredited   

不足信的，不名誉的

参考例句：

• The reactionary authorities are between two fires and have been discredited. 反动当局弄得进退维谷，不得人心。
• Her honour was discredited in the newspapers. 她的名声被报纸败坏了。

11 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

12 paranoia   

n.妄想狂，偏执狂；多疑症

参考例句：

• Her passion for cleanliness borders on paranoia.她的洁癖近乎偏执。
• The push for reform is also motivated by political paranoia.竞选的改革运动也受到政治偏执狂症的推动。

13 watershed   

n.转折点，分水岭，分界线

参考例句：

• Our marriage was at a watershed.我们的婚姻到了一个转折关头。
• It forms the watershed between the two rivers.它成了两条河流的分水岭。

14 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

15 corruption   

n.腐败，堕落，贪污

参考例句：

• The people asked the government to hit out against corruption and theft.人民要求政府严惩贪污盗窃。
• The old man reviled against corruption.那老人痛斥了贪污舞弊。

16 coup   

n.政变；突然而成功的行动

参考例句：

• The monarch was ousted by a military coup.那君主被军事政变者废黜了。
• That government was overthrown in a military coup three years ago.那个政府在3年前的军事政变中被推翻。

17 faction   

n.宗派，小集团；派别；派系斗争

参考例句：

• Faction and self-interest appear to be the norm.派系之争和自私自利看来非常普遍。
• I now understood clearly that I was caught between the king and the Bunam's faction.我现在完全明白自己已陷入困境，在国王与布纳姆集团之间左右为难。

18 overthrow   

v.推翻，打倒，颠覆；n.推翻，瓦解，颠覆

参考例句：

• After the overthrow of the government,the country was in chaos.政府被推翻后，这个国家处于混乱中。
• The overthrow of his plans left him much discouraged.他的计划的失败使得他很气馁。

19 purges   

清除异己( purge的名词复数 )； 整肃（行动）； 清洗； 泻药

参考例句：

• Mandelshtam perished in the purges of the 1930s, Akhmatova remained silent. 曼杰利什坦姆在30年代的清洗中死去，阿赫玛托娃也销声匿迹。
• He purges his subconscious and meditates only on God. 他净化他的潜意识且只思念上帝。

20 devastated   

v.彻底破坏( devastate的过去式和过去分词)；摧毁；毁灭；在感情上（精神上、财务上等）压垮adj.毁坏的；极为震惊的

参考例句：

• The bomb devastated much of the old part of the city. 这颗炸弹炸毁了旧城的一大片地方。
• His family is absolutely devastated. 他的一家感到极为震惊。

21 collapsed   

adj.倒塌的

参考例句：

• Jack collapsed in agony on the floor. 杰克十分痛苦地瘫倒在地板上。
• The roof collapsed under the weight of snow. 房顶在雪的重压下突然坍塌下来。

22 aligned   

adj.对齐的，均衡的

参考例句：

• Make sure the shelf is aligned with the top of the cupboard.务必使搁架与橱柜顶端对齐。