美国国家公共电台 NPR--What are realistic expectations for Ukraine's military offensive?

What are realistic expectations for Ukraine's military offensive?

Transcript¹

Major military operations are normally shrouded² in secrecy³. But Ukraine's planned offensive against Russia has been part of a lively public debate for months. This has created a wide range of expectations.

"In the best case, the Ukrainians really liberate⁴ a lot of territory, perhaps even pushing the Russians back to the line on Feb. 23 of last year before this massive Russian invasion began. That would be a huge blow to Moscow," said Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who's now at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation

This scenario⁵ would reverse Russia's most significant military gain over the past year, the creation of a land bridge connecting Russian troops in eastern Ukraine — the Donbas region — to Russian forces in the south — in Crimea.

But Pifer acknowledges this is pretty optimistic.

"Probably a more realistic expectation is that the Ukrainians take a good chunk⁶ of territory back, something that would be seen in the West as underscoring that Ukraine has the potential to win," he added.

The U.S. and other NATO nations are sending Ukraine tanks, drones and artillery⁷ — giving it more firepower than ever — as it plans this offensive.

The West also recently pledged to meet Ukraine's long-standing request for F-16 fighter jets, though the Ukrainian air force must still learn how to fly and maintain these American planes, a process expected to take months.

Meanwhile, this lengthy⁸ Ukrainian buildup has given Russia time to reinforce vulnerable spots in the south and east, where Ukraine is most likely to attack.

Satellite photos show the Russians digging fresh trenches⁹ to defend possible Ukrainian approaches to Crimea, and Russia has reportedly been sending in additional troops to the region.

When will the offensive begin?

For all the public chatter¹⁰ about the offensive, Ukraine has kept secret the time it plans to launch the operation in earnest. Ukrainian political and military leaders are repeatedly asked this question, and they have a pat response: "soon."

Some analysts¹¹ say the initial stages of the offensive could already be underway, a reference to a spate¹² of surprise, relatively¹³ small attacks inside Russia.

This includes the pair of drones that hit the Kremlin in Moscow earlier this month, causing only minor¹⁴ physical damage to the domed¹⁵ roof of a building, but delivering a psychological jolt¹⁶ to the Russians.

Ukraine is intentionally¹⁷ vague about attacks inside Russia, neither confirming nor denying involvement. But there's an almost universal belief Ukraine is responsible, and this is a way of keeping Russia off-balance in advance of the offensive.

Michael Kofman, who's at the Center for Naval¹⁸ Analyses, a U.S. government-funded think tank, believes a Ukrainian offensive can succeed. But he said it will almost certainly be more challenging than the one last fall that drove Russian troops out of substantial areas in the northeast and the south.

"It may require multiple offensives on multiple fronts and will likely be conducted over the period of several months rather than days or weeks," Kofman said.

"I think that Russian forces have to be seen to be decisively beaten in this operation. Ukraine needs to demonstrate in this phase of the war that it's still capable of breaking through Russian lines," he added.

Ukraine's offensive comes with big risks. Angela Stent at Georgetown University said Ukraine needs to advance on the battlefield to maintain the strong level of political and military support it's receiving from the West.

"If they don't show much success, it's going to be much harder to justify¹⁹ supplying all the weapons," Stent said. "I think Ukraine could say, if they take back some territory, 'Look, we're making progress. It's very tough. We still need the equipment, the money, and please send us more.'"

Kofman noted²⁰ that Ukraine and its Western supporters could well have different definitions of success.

"The honest answer is, I think we'll know it when we see it," he said. "And it will to some extent be subjectively²¹ interpreted by different capitals in Europe and amongst Ukraine's other Western partners."

An offensive likely to be big, but unlikely to end the war

The analysts agree on another key point. Regardless of how this Ukrainian offensive plays out, they don't think it will bring the war to a close.

They see Russian leader Vladimir Putin playing the long game, believing he can wear down Ukraine's military and sap the will of the West to provide sustained support.

"Russia has three times the population of Ukraine, so the Russians still have hundreds of thousands of young men, cannon²² fodder²³, whom they can conscript," Stent said.

"Ukraine doesn't have endless numbers of young men it can send to the front. Russia could go on putting people on the battlefield longer than Ukraine can," she added.

Steven Pifer, meanwhile, was a long-time diplomat²⁴. But he doesn't think now is the right time for peace talks.

"I believe at some point there will be a negotiation²⁵ in this war between Kyiv and Moscow, but not now and not while the Russians have shown absolutely no indication that they're serious," he said.

"You'll see people suggesting, 'Well, it's time to encourage the Ukrainians to negotiate. I don't agree with that," he added. "I worry about the people who are prepared to start talking about what kind of territory Ukraine should cede²⁶ to Russia, even though it's not their territory to give away."

Ukraine has repeatedly surprised the world throughout the war, Pifer said. Be prepared, he added, to be surprised again.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 shrouded   

v.隐瞒( shroud的过去式和过去分词 )；保密

参考例句：

• The hills were shrouded in mist . 这些小山被笼罩在薄雾之中。
• The towers were shrouded in mist. 城楼被蒙上薄雾。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 secrecy   

n.秘密，保密，隐蔽

参考例句：

• All the researchers on the project are sworn to secrecy.该项目的所有研究人员都按要求起誓保守秘密。
• Complete secrecy surrounded the meeting.会议在绝对机密的环境中进行。

4 liberate   

v.解放，使获得自由，释出，放出；vt.解放，使获自由

参考例句：

• They did their best to liberate slaves.他们尽最大能力去解放奴隶。
• This will liberate him from economic worry.这将消除他经济上的忧虑。

5 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

6 chunk   

n.厚片，大块，相当大的部分（数量）

参考例句：

• They had to be careful of floating chunks of ice.他们必须当心大块浮冰。
• The company owns a chunk of farmland near Gatwick Airport.该公司拥有盖特威克机场周边的大片农田。

7 artillery   

n.(军)火炮，大炮；炮兵(部队)

参考例句：

• This is a heavy artillery piece.这是一门重炮。
• The artillery has more firepower than the infantry.炮兵火力比步兵大。

8 lengthy   

adj.漫长的，冗长的

参考例句：

• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。
• The professor wrote a lengthy book on Napoleon.教授写了一部有关拿破仑的巨著。

9 trenches   

深沟，地沟( trench的名词复数 )； 战壕

参考例句：

• life in the trenches 第一次世界大战期间的战壕生活
• The troops stormed the enemy's trenches and fanned out across the fields. 部队猛攻敌人的战壕，并在田野上呈扇形散开。

10 chatter   

vi.／n.喋喋不休；短促尖叫；(牙齿)打战

参考例句：

• Her continuous chatter vexes me.她的喋喋不休使我烦透了。
• I've had enough of their continual chatter.我已厌烦了他们喋喋不休的闲谈。

11 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

12 spate   

n.泛滥，洪水，突然的一阵

参考例句：

• Police are investigating a spate of burglaries in the area.警察正在调查这一地区发生的大量盗窃案。
• Refugees crossed the border in full spate.难民大量地越过了边境。

13 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

14 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

15 domed   

adj. 圆屋顶的, 半球形的, 拱曲的 动词dome的过去式和过去分词形式

参考例句：

• I gazed up at the domed ceiling arching overhead. 我抬头凝望着上方弧形的穹顶。
• His forehead domed out in a curve. 他的前额呈弯曲的半球形。

16 jolt   

v.（使）摇动，（使）震动，（使）颠簸

参考例句：

• We were worried that one tiny jolt could worsen her injuries.我们担心稍微颠簸一下就可能会使她的伤势恶化。
• They were working frantically in the fear that an aftershock would jolt the house again.他们拼命地干着，担心余震可能会使房子再次受到震动。

17 intentionally   

ad.故意地，有意地

参考例句：

• I didn't say it intentionally. 我是无心说的。
• The local authority ruled that he had made himself intentionally homeless and was therefore not entitled to be rehoused. 当地政府裁定他是有意居无定所，因此没有资格再获得提供住房。

18 naval   

adj.海军的，军舰的，船的

参考例句：

• He took part in a great naval battle.他参加了一次大海战。
• The harbour is an important naval base.该港是一个重要的海军基地。

19 justify   

vt.证明…正当(或有理)，为…辩护

参考例句：

• He tried to justify his absence with lame excuses.他想用站不住脚的借口为自己的缺席辩解。
• Can you justify your rude behavior to me?你能向我证明你的粗野行为是有道理的吗？

20 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

21 subjectively   

主观地； 臆

参考例句：

• Subjectively, the demand of interest is the desire of human being. 荀子所说的对利的需要从主观上说就是人的欲望。
• A sound also has an amplitude, a property subjectively heard as loudness. 声音有振幅，振幅的主观感觉是声音的大小。

22 cannon   

n.大炮，火炮；飞机上的机关炮

参考例句：

• The soldiers fired the cannon.士兵们开炮。
• The cannon thundered in the hills.大炮在山间轰鸣。

23 fodder   

n.草料；炮灰

参考例句：

• Grass mowed and cured for use as fodder.割下来晒干用作饲料的草。
• Guaranteed salt intake, no matter which normal fodder.不管是那一种正常的草料，保证盐的摄取。

24 diplomat   

n.外交官，外交家；能交际的人，圆滑的人

参考例句：

• The diplomat threw in a joke, and the tension was instantly relieved.那位外交官插进一个笑话，紧张的气氛顿时缓和下来。
• He served as a diplomat in Russia before the war.战前他在俄罗斯当外交官。

25 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

26 cede   

v.割让，放弃

参考例句：

• The debater refused to cede the point to her opponent.辩论者拒绝向她的对手放弃其主张。
• Not because I'm proud.In fact,in front of you I cede all my pride.这不是因为骄傲，事实上我在你面前毫无骄傲可言。