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【英语时差8,16】观测选择

时间:2015-12-07 06:37来源:互联网 提供网友:yajing   字体: [ ]
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 Observational selection, on this Moment of Science.   D: Grubs, on today's moment of science. Grubs are really cool because if you squish 'em . . . oh, I give up. I can't read this.

Y: Why not?
D: I'm sorry, Ya?l, I'm just discouraged. You see, for years now I've been telling people fun little facts about everyday science.
Y: Yes?
D: And science is all about rationality. It's about figuring out the way things really work. But my belief has been shaken since I heard about Michael Drosnin's book The Bible Code.
Y: Oh, that's the bestseller where the author made strings1 of letters by taking, say, every 50th letter from a famous bible passage. Then he claimed those strings predicted the future.
D: That's the one! The new strings of letters keep producing words and even phrases! It can't be a coincidence.
Y: Can't it? Statisticians call this kind of thing "observational selection." That means if you are allowed to ignore all the data that add up to nothing, it's actually easy to come up with apparently2 amazing coincidences. An Australian computer scientist named Brendan McKay set out recently to demonstrate that the same thing can be done with any long book. He applied3 Drosnin's observational selection technique to Moby Dick and produced such eerie4 phrases as "M L King" next to "To be shot by them" and "Princess Di" next to "mortal in the jaws5 of death."D: Hmmm . . . so by throwing away all the strings that spell nothing, you can just wait until eventually a coincidence comes along. That's the error of observational selection.
Y: Right.
D: OK, I guess I can read about grubs.   

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1 strings nh0zBe     
n.弦
参考例句:
  • He sat on the bed,idly plucking the strings of his guitar.他坐在床上,随意地拨着吉他的弦。
  • She swept her fingers over the strings of the harp.她用手指划过竖琴的琴弦。
2 apparently tMmyQ     
adv.显然地;表面上,似乎
参考例句:
  • An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽,豁然开朗。
  • He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。
3 applied Tz2zXA     
adj.应用的;v.应用,适用
参考例句:
  • She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
  • This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。
4 eerie N8gy0     
adj.怪诞的;奇异的;可怕的;胆怯的
参考例句:
  • It's eerie to walk through a dark wood at night.夜晚在漆黑的森林中行走很是恐怖。
  • I walked down the eerie dark path.我走在那条漆黑恐怖的小路上。
5 jaws cq9zZq     
n.口部;嘴
参考例句:
  • The antelope could not escape the crocodile's gaping jaws. 那只羚羊无法从鱷鱼张开的大口中逃脱。
  • The scored jaws of a vise help it bite the work. 台钳上有刻痕的虎钳牙帮助它紧咬住工件。
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