华盛顿邮报 美元加息太猛？或导致美国经济衰退？(2)

And I wonder if you could sort of break down what you're describing here, which is that when there is high inflation, the Fed might raise interest rates in response to that to sort of cool off the economy that can then lead to a recession.

我想知道您是否可以将您在这里所描述的进行分析，即当出现高通胀时，美联储可能会提高利率来应对这种情况，给经济降温，而这可能会导致经济衰退。

Can you just explain sort of, like, the mechanisms¹ by which that happens?

你能解释一下发生这种情况的机制吗？

Yeah, so, when the Fed is raising interest rates, it is trying to slow the economy.

可以，当美联储加息时，是在试图减缓经济增长。

And the question is, how much do they slow it, how fast, how far?

问题是，他们把经济减慢了多少，速度有多快，到什么程度？

The issue will come that we don't have precision surgical² tools.

问题将会出现，我们没有精密的外科工具。

We have essentially³ interest rates, the balance sheet and forward guidance.

我们基本上只有利率、资产负债表和前瞻性指导。

And, you know, they're famously blunt tools.

而且，它们是出了名的迟钝工具。

They're not capable of surgical precision.

它们没有外科手术的精确度。

And the way -- The problem here is that its impact on the economy is indirect and it can never be that certain about how much impact it's having and also how quickly.

这里的问题是，加息对经济的影响是间接的，产生的影响有多大，速度有多快，永远不可能那么确定。

What they're raising is an overnight money rate that none of us see.

他们提高的是我们都看不到的隔夜货币利率。

That's what banks pay each other.

这就是银行之间的支付方式。

It's not worth going through the details of how that impacts the economy.

这是如何影响经济的，不值得详细讨论。

But the basic story is that when they raise their short-term rate, it affects the longer-term rates that we see when we go to take out a mortgage, when you go to take out a home equity⁴ loan, when we go to take out a car loan, and by making those rates higher, what that means is mortgage rates are higher, people are less likely to buy a home.

但基本情况是，当他们提高短期利率时，会影响我们在申请抵押贷款、房屋净值贷款、汽车贷款时看到的长期利率，通过提高这些利率，意味着抵押贷款利率更高，人们购买住房的可能性降低。

It will also affect homebuilding.

这还会影响住房建设。

So the impact on the economy, if people are buying fewer homes, there are fewer jobs that are selling real estate, fewer jobs issuing mortgages, fewer jobs in the construction industry, building homes.

因此，对经济的影响是，如果人们减少购房，出售房地产的工作就会减少，发放抵押贷款的工作就会减少，建筑业的工作就会减少，建造房屋的工作就会减少。

So the idea is that when the Fed's raising rates, they're slowing the economy through a number of channels.

也就是说，当美联储加息时，他们会通过多种渠道减缓经济增长。

But again, the problem that the Fed has is it's hard for them to know exactly how much they're going to slow it with a given interest rate hike and also how long.

但同样，美联储面临的问题是，他们很难确切地知道，在给定的加息幅度下，他们会将经济放缓多少，以及持续多长时间。

Yeah, and maybe it's worth talking a little bit more about why the Fed is raising interest rates right now.

是的，也许我们有必要多谈谈为什么美联储现在要提高利率。

Obviously, we have seen very high inflation.

显然，我们看到了非常高的通胀。

How bad is the inflation that we're seeing right now and how big of a problem is it?

我们现在看到的通货膨胀有多严重，问题有多严重?

Well, this is, again, a very, very tough issue because a lot of the inflation has nothing to do with how strong the economy is.

嗯，这又是一个非常非常棘手的问题，因为很多通胀与经济的强劲程度无关。

So we've seen a worldwide run-up in oil prices, also some other commodities.

我们看到了全球范围内石油价格的上涨，其他一些大宗商品也是如此。

Wheat, corn, a number of other commodities.

小麦、玉米和其他一些大宗商品。

Very little to do with the level of economic activity here, very little the Fed can do about it.

这与这里的经济活动水平没有多大关系，美联储对此也无能为力。

Prices determine the world market.

价格决定世界市场。

Clearly, the biggest factor here is the war in Ukraine because we know that Russia's a major oil exporter.

显然，最大的因素是乌克兰战争，因为我们知道俄罗斯是一个主要的石油出口国。

There's certainly concern that Russian oil will be withdrawn⁵ from world markets or some portion of that.

当然，人们担心俄罗斯石油将退出世界市场或部分退出世界市场。

I should point out to date, very little actually has been, but there is certainly fears that more could be at some point and that could mean very serious shortages of oil.

我应该指出，到目前为止，实际上只有很少的石油退出世界市场，但肯定有人担心，在某个时候可能会有更多的石油退出，这可能意味着非常严重的石油短缺。

Similar story with grains.

谷物的情况也类似。

Ukraine's a major grain exporter, as is Russia.

乌克兰是一个主要的粮食出口国，俄罗斯也是。

And if a large amount of grain from Ukraine and Russia is withdrawn from world markets, that too would push prices through the roof.

如果来自乌克兰和俄罗斯的大量粮食从世界市场上撤出，那也会把价格推高。

So those are big factors pushing up inflation.

因此，这些都是推高通胀的重要因素。

And we also had disruption in supply chain because people were sick with COVID.

我们的供应链也中断了，因为人们感染了新冠肺炎。

You had shutdowns in China and other major exporters. So we had shortages of all these various items.

中国和其他主要出口国都关闭了市场。所以我们所有这些不同的物品都短缺了。

So that pushed inflation higher.

这就推高了通货膨胀。

So those are two big factors pushing inflation higher, very little the Fed could do about that.

这是推高通胀的两大因素，美联储对此几乎无能为力。

1 mechanisms   

n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 )；机械装置；[生物学] 机制；机械作用

参考例句：

• The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 surgical   

adj.外科的，外科医生的，手术上的

参考例句：

• He performs the surgical operations at the Red Cross Hospital.他在红十字会医院做外科手术。
• All surgical instruments must be sterilised before use.所有的外科手术器械在使用之前，必须消毒。

3 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

4 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

5 withdrawn   

vt.收回；使退出；vi.撤退，退出

参考例句：

• Our force has been withdrawn from the danger area.我们的军队已从危险地区撤出。
• All foreign troops should be withdrawn to their own countries.一切外国军队都应撤回本国去。