华尔街的赚钱经 第4期:如何从通货再膨胀中获利

 Reflation And How To Exploit It如何从通货再膨胀中获利The most talked-about investing strategy these days isn't stuffing money in a mattress¹, it's the reflation trade-the bet that the world economy will rebound², driving up interest rates and commodities prices.

就市场而言，最近谈的最多的投资策略并不是寻求避险，而是通货再膨胀交易——下注全球经济将复苏，从而推高利率水平和大宗商品价格。

Even though the economy continues to struggle, investors⁴ are looking ahead to the time when the massive rescue efforts by central banks and governments gain traction⁵.

即便目前经济仍然走势蹒跚，投资者却具有前瞻性地看到那了各国央行和政府的大规模救助举措发挥作用的时刻。

通货膨胀.jpgThey are focused on raw materials and commodity-related stocks that would benefit from the surge in infrastructure⁶ spending. They are looking to exploit potential bottlenecks⁷ in production that could lift prices and corporate⁸ earnings⁹.

他们重点关注原材料和大宗商品相关类股，这些类股可能会从基础设施支出的飘升中受益。他们还期望从生产瓶颈中获利，生产瓶颈会推高价格和企业利润。

"Between the bailouts and the stimulus¹⁰, it's pretty clear that we're going to have some inflation when we get out of this mess," says Roger lbbotson, founder¹¹ of lbbotson Associates and chairman of hedge-fund manager Zebra Capital Management. He says, "It may not show up for another two years, after that I think it's quite likely and I think you should be positioning a portfolio¹² against that."伊博森伙伴咨询公司创始人、对冲基金公司斑马资本管理有限公司董事长伊博森说在诸多救助计划和剌激计划中，很明显我们走出经济危机的时候会出现一些通货膨胀。“他说，或许这种情况两年之内不会出现，但我认为在两年之后，很有可能出现，我觉得你们应该针对这种情况设置一个投资组合。”

Shawn Rubin, an adviser¹³ at Smith Barney in New York, has moved some clients partly into natural-resources stocks while using strategies to protect against a spike¹⁴ in inflation.

史密斯·邦尼公司驻纽约顾问肖恩·鲁宾已经将一些客户的部分投资转移至自然资源类股，同时使用策略应对通货膨胀上升的风险。

One way is to use options, where an investor³ is able to use relatively¹⁵ small amounts of money and take positions that would profit from a massive drop in Treasury¹⁶ prices or a near doubling in gold prices. "While in the short run such trades may not work, it's a long-term move," Mr. Rubin says. "You should buy insurance when it's cheap."期权是一种手段，投资者可以使用相对较少的资金，建立头寸应对国债价格大幅下挫或金价上涨将近一倍的情况。如果出现这种情况，他们就能从中获利。鲁宾说，“尽管此类交易短期可能不会奏效，这是一个长期性举措。你得趁成本低廉的时候就采取防范性措施。”

And despite the recentl altirity that lifted stocks 20% from their lows as of Thursday-the common definition of the return to a bull market, though they promptly¹⁷ fell again Friday-most investors expect a challenging environment well into next year.

尽管在近期涨势的推动下，截至上周四美国股市较低点回升了20%一一达到了通常的牛市回归标准，不过上周五再次急剧下滑一一但多数投资者仍认为明年会遭遇更为困难的环境。

But the Federal Reserve has taken dramatic steps to revive the economy and stabilize¹⁸ the financial system. It has lowered interest rates essentially¹⁹ to zero and is on track to pump more than $2 trillion into the credit markets.

不过，美国联邦储备委员会（Fed，简称：美联储）已经采取许多重大举措重振经济，稳定金融体系。美联储已经将利率下调到实际为零的水平，并正在逐步向信贷市场注入超过2万亿美元。

On top of that, there is the $787 billion federal stimulus program coupled with a growing budget deficit²⁰. Around the globe central banks and governments are making similar moves.

除此之外，联邦政府还有7，870亿美元的剌激计划以及不断扩大的预算赤字。全球主要央行和政府都在采取着类似举措。

Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust, says "the Fed will likely err²¹ on the side of ensuring that the recovery is sustained and usually that means they will be late in turning against inflation. The political sentiment will be toward inflation and in preventing deflation," he adds.

北美信托银行有限公司经济研究主管保罗·卡斯里尔表示，“美联储在确保经济持续复苏时可能会出现错误，这通常意味着他们在遏制通货膨胀方面的行动可能会迟缓。”他补充说，“政治舆论将会倾向于剌激通胀和防止通缩。”

Mr. Liinamaa suggests investors keep a "survivor²² bias²³". That means "looking for names that have low cost structures and balance-sheet capacity to still be standing²⁴" even if demand doesn't recover soon. He cites steel producer Nucor as one example.

利纳马建议投资者考虑那些能够生存下来的公司。这意味着寻找那些成本结构较低、资产负债能力强劲的公司，即便需求短期难以复苏，它们仍然会生存下来。他说纽科钢铁公司就是这样一个例子。

Already there are signs that the market is less worried about deflation. That's clearest in the market for Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Back in February, five-year TIPS were priced for a 0.5% drop in consumer prices, now that's swung around to a 1.35% increase.

已经有迹象显示市场并不是那么担忧通货紧缩。这点在美国财政部通货膨胀保值债券的(TIPS)市场上表现最为明显。今军二月，5年期通货膨胀保值债券的走势显示，市场预计美国消费者价格会下跌0.5%，但目前的走势已经逆转，市场认为消费者价格会上升大约1.35%。

"The magnitude of the expected inflation rise predicted by TIPS may be small, but the direction tells the tale," says John Hollyer, a co-manager of Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund.

先锋抗通胀债券基金的联席经理霍尔耶说，“通货膨胀保值债券走势所预计的通货膨胀率幅度或许不大，但方向说明了一切。”

"The fiscal²⁵ and monetary²⁶ stimulus are causing investors to say there's a decent chance the Fed will be successful and there will be an increase in inflation," he says.

他说，“财政和货币剌激举措正促使投资者相信美联储很可能会取得成功，通货膨胀也很有可能上升。”

1 mattress   

n.床垫，床褥

参考例句：

• The straw mattress needs to be aired.草垫子该晾一晾了。
• The new mattress I bought sags in the middle.我买的新床垫中间陷了下去。

2 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

3 investor   

n.投资者，投资人

参考例句：

• My nephew is a cautious investor.我侄子是个小心谨慎的投资者。
• The investor believes that his investment will pay off handsomely soon.这个投资者相信他的投资不久会有相当大的收益。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 traction   

n.牵引；附着摩擦力

参考例句：

• I'll show you how the traction is applied.我会让你看如何做这种牵引。
• She's injured her back and is in traction for a month.她背部受伤，正在作一个月的牵引治疗。

6 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

7 bottlenecks   

n.瓶颈( bottleneck的名词复数 )；瓶颈路段（常引起交通堵塞）；（尤指工商业发展的）瓶颈；阻碍

参考例句：

• Roadworks are causing bottlenecks in the city centre. 道路施工导致市中心交通阻塞。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• At five o'clock in the afternoon the city streets are a series of bottlenecks. 下午五点市中心的街道就成了拥挤不堪的窄路。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

8 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

9 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

10 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

11 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

12 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

13 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

14 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

15 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

16 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

17 promptly   

adv.及时地，敏捷地

参考例句：

• He paid the money back promptly.他立即还了钱。
• She promptly seized the opportunity his absence gave her.她立即抓住了因他不在场给她创造的机会。

18 stabilize   

vt.（使）稳定，使稳固，使稳定平衡；vi.稳定

参考例句：

• They are eager to stabilize currencies.他们急于稳定货币。
• His blood pressure tended to stabilize.他的血压趋向稳定。

19 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

20 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

21 err   

vi.犯错误，出差错

参考例句：

• He did not err by a hair's breadth in his calculation.他的计算结果一丝不差。
• The arrows err not from their aim.箭无虚发。

22 survivor   

n.生存者，残存者，幸存者

参考例句：

• The sole survivor of the crash was an infant.这次撞车的惟一幸存者是一个婴儿。
• There was only one survivor of the plane crash.这次飞机失事中只有一名幸存者。

23 bias   

n.偏见，偏心，偏袒；vt.使有偏见

参考例句：

• They are accusing the teacher of political bias in his marking.他们在指控那名教师打分数有政治偏见。
• He had a bias toward the plan.他对这项计划有偏见。

24 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

25 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

26 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。