经济学人330:卷烟工业 强弩之末

　　Business
商业报道
The cigarette industry
卷烟工业
Running out of puff¹
强弩之末
Big tobacco firms are maintaining their poise², but quietly wheezing³
烟草巨头们都保持姿态，蓄势待发。
CIGARETTE smoking is a health hazard of sufficient importance in the United States to warrant appropriate remedial action.
吸烟在美国是一项引起足够重视的健康危害，以保障适当的补救措施。
2_副本.jpgIt was 50 years ago this month that America's surgeon-general sounded that warning, marking the beginning of the end of cigarette manufacturing—and of smoking itself—as a respectable activity.
这是50年前的这个月美国卫生部部长发出的警告。这一警告的发出标志着卷烟制造业以及吸烟这一行为本身不再是一项让人尊敬的行为。
Some 20m Americans have died from the habit since then.
从那时起，大约有2千万美国人死于吸烟。
But advertising⁴ restrictions⁵, smoking bans and stigma⁶ have had their effect: the proportion of American adults who smoke has dropped from 43% to 18%; smoking rates among teenagers are at a record low.
但是不论是广告限制或是严禁吸烟的标志都还是起到了作用：吸烟的美国成年人比例已经从43%下降到了18%，青少年的吸烟率也处于历史新低，
In many other countries the trends are similar.
这种趋势在其他国家也是相似的。
The current surgeon-general, Boris Lushniak, marked the half-century with a report on January 17th, declaring smoking even deadlier than previously⁷ thought.
现任卫生部部长，鲍里斯在1月17日发布的报道对过去的50年作了总结，指出吸烟比预期的更加致命。
He added diabetes⁸, colorectal cancer and other ailments⁹ to the list of ills it causes, and promised end-game strategies to stamp out cigarettes altogether.
在吸烟导致的疾病里，他加入了糖尿病，直肠癌和其它病症，并且提出了终结策略来完全杜绝香烟。
Were that to happen America's three big tobacco firms, Altria, Reynolds and Lorillard, could be snuffed out, too.
美国三大烟草公司，奥驰亚，雷诺和罗瑞拉德烟草公司会因此而被扼杀吗？
Public-health officials plot the same fate for multinationals¹⁰ that supply other markets.
卫生部的官员们为供应其它市场的跨国公司也安排了相同的命运。
The hit list includes Philip Morris International, which along with Altria makes Marlboro, the top-selling global brand; Japan Tobacco; and British American Tobacco and Imperial Tobacco of Britain.
这其中包括菲利普莫里斯国际公司，它和奥驰亚一起打造了万宝路这一全球最畅销的品牌，除此之外还有日本烟草公司、英美烟草公司和英国的帝国烟草公司。
They are a hardy¹¹ bunch, unlikely to be spooked.
这些公司都是硬骨头，不太容易被震慑到。
But the methods they have used to withstand a half-century of battering¹² by regulators may be losing potency¹³.
但是他们采取的与监管部门周旋了半个世纪的方法可能会失去效力。
In the rich world, where the economy is sluggish¹⁴, smokers¹⁵ are trading down to cheaper puffs¹⁶.
在经济低迷的富裕国家，吸烟者开始选择便宜的产品进行交易，
The regulatory climate in developing countries is becoming more hostile.
发展中国家的监管环境也变得更加严苛。
New technologies such as e-cigarettes promise to deliver nicotine¹⁷ less riskily¹⁸.
一些新的技术，比如电子香烟承诺提供危害风险更小的尼古丁。
Big tobacco firms may master them, but it would be a radical¹⁹ shift, akin²⁰ to converting the car industry from internal-combustion engines to battery power.
大的烟草公司可能掌握这项技术，但是这将是一个根本性的转变。类似于汽车产业中从内燃机到电池电源的转变。
David Adelman of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank, does not see anything that's upending the conventional tobacco business model.
摩根士丹利投资银行的大卫阿德尔曼表示，并没有看到任何的颠覆了传统的烟草商业模式，
But the model needs tweaking.
但模型需要调整。
Some reasons for Mr Adelman's confidence are sound. Advertising bans and the industry's pariah²¹ status deter²² would-be competitors.
阿德尔曼先生有这样的信心是有理有据的，广告禁令以及烟草业所处的低贱地位都将阻止潜在竞争者的出现。
When cigarette-makers raise prices, smokers cough up.
当卷烟制造商提高价格的时候，烟民们就咳嗽起来。
Global consumption keeps rising, thanks largely to population growth in poorer countries.
由于贫困国家人口的快速增长，全球消费量不断上升。
The cigarette giants pamper²³ investors²⁴ with big dividends²⁵ and share buy-backs; they have flocked to tobacco shares.
烟草巨头们放任投资者获得丰厚的分红以及股票回购，使得投资者纷纷涌向烟草股。
But the going is getting tougher.
但是这种发展趋势已是举步维艰。
This month health officials in China, home to more smokers than any other country, called for a ban on smoking in public places.
中国作为拥有比其他任何国家更多烟民的国家于本月由卫生部的官员发布了禁止公共场所吸烟的禁令。
That would mainly affect state-owned China Tobacco, which has a near-monopoly.
这将主要影响到在行业中几乎处于垄断地位的中国烟草国有企业。
But multinationals' shares wobbled anyway: the proposed crackdown could portend²⁶ tighter regulation elsewhere.
但是跨国公司的股份也是摇摆不定：打击的提议可能会预示着更为严格的监管。
Britain's government, after some wavering, may now go ahead and copy Australia's requirement for cigarettes to be sold in ugly, scary plain packs.
英国政府在几番举棋不定后最终决定采取与澳大利亚同样的做法，在烟草的包装上采用印有丑陋恐怖图案的普通包装。
Such pleasure-pinching regulation strikes at one of the main ways cigarette companies boost profits: converting smokers to pricier brands.
这种pleasure-pinching监管方式主要打击的是烟草公司获取利润的其中一种方式：促使吸烟者选择价格更高的品牌。
Premiumisation is still happening in developing countries, where incomes are rising.
消费品质优化仍然发生在那些收入增加的发展中国家。
But elsewhere smokers are turning to cheaper brands or rolling their own cigarettes.
但是在其他地方烟民们开始转而选择低价品牌或是自己卷烟。
Many smokers will not trade back up once the economy improves, largely because smoking and advertising bans have robbed the habit of its air of glamour²⁷.
当经济有所好转时，许多烟民也不会改变他们的选择，这很大程度上是因为吸烟和烟草广告的禁令已经夺走了烟草香味一贯的魅力。
Euromonitor International, a research firm, forecasts that everywhere except in Asia and the Middle East prices will rise less from 2012 to 2017 than they did during the previous five years
欧睿国际预测除了亚洲和中东地区外，从2012年到2017年烟草价格的上涨将低于过去5年来价格的上涨。
Shane MacGuill of Euromonitor sees in all this a very serious threat to the long-term health of the tobacco industry.
欧睿国际的巴蒂尔认为这些对于烟草业长期的健康发展是一个严重的威胁。
This is spurring a quest for safer methods of supplying smokers with their nicotine fixes.
这将促使该行业烟民们以更加安全的方式提供尼古丁。
Most of the hype is about e-cigarettes, which give users a hit of vapour infused with nicotine but none of the other, nastier ingredients of tobacco smoke.
这其中最有可能的方式就是电子香烟，这种香烟主要提供的是尼古丁蒸汽而不含其它物质，特别是烟草中的有害成分。
In America, the fastest adopter, sales have jumped from nearly nothing five years ago to at least 1 billion in 2013.
在美国最先采用这种方式的厂家，5年来其销售量实现了从零开始的激增，截止2013年已经达到至少10亿美元。
At first, it looked as if e-cigarettes might lure²⁸ smokers from the big tobacco brands to startups such as NJOY.
起初的时候，电子香烟似乎已经诱导烟民们从大的烟草品牌转向诸如NJOY的新兴公司。
But incumbents²⁹ have been quick to see the threat.
但是公司们也都迅速的意识到了这种威胁。
Lorillard acquired Blu, now the biggest American brand, in 2012.
罗瑞拉德烟草公司于2012年收购了蓝光这一现今最大的美国品牌。
Altria and Reynolds are expected to launch e-cig ventures nationwide this year.
奥驰亚集团和雷诺预计今年将在全国范围内推出电子香烟业务。
Imperial recently acquired the e-cigarette operations of Dragonite, a Chinese firm that pioneered the technology.
帝国烟草公司最近收购了一家名为叁龙的中国公司，因为该公司率先掌握了该项技术。
Though not the first movers, tobacco companies have bigger war chests, more knowledge of smokers' habits and better ties to distributors than the newcomers.
虽然不是起步最早的，但是烟草公司比起新进的公司来说更具实力，它们更了解烟民们的习惯也有更多的分销渠道。
Some pundits³⁰ reckon Americans will puff more e-cigarettes than normal ones within a decade, but tobacco folk are sceptical.
一些专家预测在未来的十年里，美国人将消费更多的电子香烟，但是烟民们对此却持怀疑态度。
E-cigs account for just 1% of America's cigarette market.
在美国的烟草市场，电子香烟只占到了1%的份额。
In Europe 7% of smokers had tried vaping by 2012 but only 1% kept it up.
在欧洲，有7%的烟民都试过了这种 电子烟雾,但是只有1%的人到2012年还在使用。
PMI has higher hopes for a new type of cigarette, which heats tobacco rather than burning it.
PMI公司更希望有一种全新的香烟，这种香烟只是加热烟草而不点燃。
Such cigarettes could deliver fewer toxins³¹ than conventional sticks and more pleasure than mere³² vapour.
这种香烟比起普通香烟产生的毒素更少，而与电子香烟的烟雾相比又能使人更加愉悦。
PMI says it will invest up to 500m in a factory in Italy to make them.
PMI公司表示它们将投入5亿欧元到意大利一家生产这种香烟的工厂。
Earlier efforts to hook smokers on heated tobacco flopped³³, so there is no assurance that PMI's versions will succeed.
早期为了使烟民们使用加热烟草的努力都以失败告终，因而不能保证PMI公司的这一思路能得以实现。
And no one knows what sort of restrictions regulators will eventually place on reduced risk products, including e-cigarettes.
并且每人知道对于包括电子香烟在内的降低风险产品会出台什么样的监管措施。
If they can manage the transition to less harmful smokes, and convince regulators to be sensible, the tobacco giants could keep up the sort of performance that has made their shares such a fine investment over the years.
如果这些公司能实现向低危害的烟草的转变，并且说服监管机构意识到这种转变。那么这些烟草巨头们将能有实力继续为他们的投资者们提供丰厚的分红。
But some analysts³⁴ are not so sure.
但是一些分析人士对此却不那么肯定。
Many tobacco firms are struggling to deliver the consistency³⁵ of the earnings-per-share model we've seen in the past, says David Hayes of Nomura. If that persists, investors may fall out of love with the industry.
野村公司的大卫表示许多的烟草公司都在挣扎着想要继续沿用以前烟草按股数收益的经营方式。如果它们坚持，那么它们的投资者们可能会失去对该行业的兴趣。
A half-century after the surgeon-general's alarm, they, and incorrigible³⁶ puffers, are its last remaining friends.
从卫生部部长发出警告的半个世纪以来，这些公司最后的朋友就只剩那些已经无药可救的烟民们了。

1 puff   

n.一口(气)；一阵(风)；v.喷气，喘气

参考例句：

• He took a puff at his cigarette.他吸了一口香烟。
• They tried their best to puff the book they published.他们尽力吹捧他们出版的书。

2 poise   

vt./vi. 平衡，保持平衡；n.泰然自若，自信

参考例句：

• She hesitated briefly but quickly regained her poise.她犹豫片刻，但很快恢复了镇静。
• Ballet classes are important for poise and grace.芭蕾课对培养优雅的姿仪非常重要。

3 wheezing   

v.喘息，发出呼哧呼哧的喘息声( wheeze的现在分词 )；哮鸣

参考例句：

• He was coughing and wheezing all night. 他整夜又咳嗽又喘。
• A barrel-organ was wheezing out an old tune. 一架手摇风琴正在呼哧呼哧地奏着一首古老的曲子。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

4 advertising   

n.广告业；广告活动 a.广告的；广告业务的

参考例句：

• Can you give me any advice on getting into advertising? 你能指点我如何涉足广告业吗?
• The advertising campaign is aimed primarily at young people. 这个广告宣传运动主要是针对年轻人的。

5 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

6 stigma   

n.耻辱，污名；(花的)柱头

参考例句：

• Being an unmarried mother used to carry a social stigma.做未婚母亲在社会上曾是不光彩的事。
• The stigma of losing weighed heavily on the team.失败的耻辱让整个队伍压力沉重。

7 previously   

adv.以前，先前（地）

参考例句：

• The bicycle tyre blew out at a previously damaged point.自行车胎在以前损坏过的地方又爆开了。
• Let me digress for a moment and explain what had happened previously.让我岔开一会儿，解释原先发生了什么。

8 diabetes   

n.糖尿病

参考例句：

• In case of diabetes, physicians advise against the use of sugar.对于糖尿病患者，医生告诫他们不要吃糖。
• Diabetes is caused by a fault in the insulin production of the body.糖尿病是由体內胰岛素分泌失调引起的。

9 ailments   

疾病（尤指慢性病），不适( ailment的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• His ailments include a mild heart attack and arthritis. 他患有轻度心脏病和关节炎。
• He hospitalizes patients for minor ailments. 他把只有小病的患者也送进医院。

10 multinationals   

跨国公司( multinational的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• These local companies are only small fry compared with the huge multinationals. 同那些跨国公司比，这些当地的公司不过是小鱼小虾。
• Some people believe that the multinationals have too much power. 有人认为跨国公司的权力太大了。

11 hardy   

adj.勇敢的，果断的，吃苦的；耐寒的

参考例句：

• The kind of plant is a hardy annual.这种植物是耐寒的一年生植物。
• He is a hardy person.他是一个能吃苦耐劳的人。

12 battering   

n.用坏，损坏v.连续猛击( batter的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The film took a battering from critics in the US. 该影片在美国遭遇到批评家的猛烈抨击。
• He kept battering away at the door. 他接连不断地砸门。 来自《简明英汉词典》

13 potency   

n. 效力，潜能

参考例句：

• Alcohol increases the drug's potency.酒精能增加这种毒品的效力。
• Sunscreen can lose its potency if left over winter in the bathroom cabinet.如果把防晒霜在盥洗室的壁橱里放一个冬天，就有可能失效。

14 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

15 smokers   

吸烟者( smoker的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Many smokers who are chemically addicted to nicotine cannot cut down easily. 许多有尼古丁瘾的抽烟人不容易把烟戒掉。
• Chain smokers don't care about the dangers of smoking. 烟鬼似乎不在乎吸烟带来的种种危害。

16 puffs   

n.吸( puff的名词复数 )；（烟斗或香烟的）一吸；一缕（烟、蒸汽等）；（呼吸或风的）呼v.使喷出( puff的第三人称单数 )；喷着汽（或烟）移动；吹嘘；吹捧

参考例句：

• We sat exchanging puffs from that wild pipe of his. 我们坐在那里，轮番抽着他那支野里野气的烟斗。 来自辞典例句
• Puffs of steam and smoke came from the engine. 一股股蒸汽和烟雾从那火车头里冒出来。 来自辞典例句

17 nicotine   

n.(化)尼古丁，烟碱

参考例句：

• Many smokers who are chemically addicted to nicotine cannot cut down easily.许多有尼古丁瘾的抽烟人不容易把烟戒掉。
• Many smokers who are chemically addicted to nicotine cannot cut down easily.许多有尼古丁瘾的抽烟人不容易把烟戒掉。

18 riskily   

冒险地，危险万分地

参考例句：

• Or the writer may, riskily, ask the questioners what is real, anyway? 有的作家或许会冒昧地反问提问题的人：究竟什么是真实？
• He lost the game by playing too riskily. 他因为打得太冒险而输掉了这场比赛。

19 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

20 akin   

adj.同族的，类似的

参考例句：

• She painted flowers and birds pictures akin to those of earlier feminine painters.她画一些同早期女画家类似的花鸟画。
• Listening to his life story is akin to reading a good adventure novel.听他的人生故事犹如阅读一本精彩的冒险小说。

21 pariah   

n.被社会抛弃者

参考例句：

• Shortly Tom came upon the juvenile pariah of the village.不一会儿，汤姆碰上了村里的少年弃儿。
• His landlady had treated him like a dangerous criminal,a pariah.房东太太对待他就像对待危险的罪犯、对待社会弃儿一样。

22 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

23 pamper   

v.纵容，过分关怀

参考例句：

• Don't pamper your little daughter.别把你的小女儿娇坏了！
• You need to pamper yourself and let your charm come through.你需要对自己放纵一些来表现你的魅力。

24 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

25 dividends   

红利( dividend的名词复数 )； 股息； 被除数； （足球彩票的）彩金

参考例句：

• Nothing pays richer dividends than magnanimity. 没有什么比宽宏大量更能得到厚报。
• Their decision five years ago to computerise the company is now paying dividends. 五年前他们作出的使公司电脑化的决定现在正产生出效益。

26 portend   

v.预兆，预示；给…以警告

参考例句：

• Black clouds portend a storm.乌云为暴风雨的前兆。
• What do these strange events portend?这些奇怪的事件预示着什么？

27 glamour   

n.魔力，魅力；vt.迷住

参考例句：

• Foreign travel has lost its glamour for her.到国外旅行对她已失去吸引力了。
• The moonlight cast a glamour over the scene.月光给景色增添了魅力。

28 lure   

n.吸引人的东西，诱惑物；vt.引诱，吸引

参考例句：

• Life in big cities is a lure for many country boys.大城市的生活吸引着许多乡下小伙子。
• He couldn't resist the lure of money.他不能抵制金钱的诱惑。

29 incumbents   

教区牧师( incumbent的名词复数 )； 教会中的任职者

参考例句：

• In general, incumbents have a 94 percent chance of being reelected. 通常现任官员有94%的几率会再次当选。
• This arangement yields a wonderful gain to incumbents. 这种安排为在职人员提供了意外的得益。

30 pundits   

n.某一学科的权威，专家( pundit的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The pundits disagree on the best way of dealing with the problem. 如何妥善处理这一问题，专家众说纷纭。 来自辞典例句
• That did not stop Chinese pundits from making a fuss over it. 这并没有阻止中国的博学之士对此大惊小怪。 来自互联网

31 toxins   

n.毒素( toxin的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The seas have been used as a receptacle for a range of industrial toxins. 海洋成了各种有毒工业废料的大容器。
• Most toxins are naturally excreted from the body. 大部分毒素被自然排出体外。 来自《简明英汉词典》

32 mere   

adj.纯粹的；仅仅，只不过

参考例句：

• That is a mere repetition of what you said before.那不过是重复了你以前讲的话。
• It's a mere waste of time waiting any longer.再等下去纯粹是浪费时间。

33 flopped   

v.（指书、戏剧等）彻底失败( flop的过去式和过去分词 )；（因疲惫而）猛然坐下；（笨拙地、不由自主地或松弛地）移动或落下；砸锅

参考例句：

• Exhausted, he flopped down into a chair. 他筋疲力尽，一屁股坐到椅子上。
• It was a surprise to us when his play flopped. 他那出戏一败涂地，出乎我们的预料。 来自《简明英汉词典》

34 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

35 consistency   

n.一贯性，前后一致，稳定性；(液体的)浓度

参考例句：

• Your behaviour lacks consistency.你的行为缺乏一贯性。
• We appreciate the consistency and stability in China and in Chinese politics.我们赞赏中国及其政策的连续性和稳定性。

36 incorrigible   

adj.难以纠正的，屡教不改的

参考例句：

• Because he was an incorrigible criminal,he was sentenced to life imprisonment.他是一个死不悔改的罪犯，因此被判终生监禁。
• Gamblers are incorrigible optimists.嗜赌的人是死不悔改的乐天派。