经济学人474:日本与安倍经济 拯救之路

 　　Japan and Abenomics

　　日本与安倍经济

　　Riding to the rescue

　　拯救之路

　　The prime minister has been given an opening. Will he take it?

　　安倍晋三已经看到了出路。那么问题来了：他会选择并走下去吗？

　　WHEN the Bank of Japan (BoJ) moved unexpectedly on October 31st, the effect was to galvanise the world's financial markets and, at home, to breathe new life into Shinzo Abe's programme to pull the country out of deflation. The scale of the central bank's action—it will print money to buy ￥80 trillion ($698 billion) of government bonds a year, equivalent to 16% of GDP—directed politics away from a string of distracting cabinet scandals.

　　日本银行在十月三十一日出人意外的举措在刺激了全球金融市场的同时，也给安倍晋三的救日本于通缩泥淖的计划带来了新的活力。此次日本央行举措的规模之大——将印刷八十万亿日元（合6980亿美元）来购买一年的国债，相当于GDP总值的16%——已经成功挤掉了闹得满城风雨的内阁丑闻事件，成为了政治热门头条。

　　Mr Abe's plans for the economy had been flagging. A rise in the consumption (value-added) tax in April had prompted an alarming drop in spending by consumers. The first shoots of inflation started to retreat. Having climbed to 1.5% in April, core inflation fell to 1% in September—far off the 2% target that the central bank had said it would achieve by the spring of 2015. Meanwhile, some spread rumours¹ that a conservative old guard at the central bank was regaining² sway and could block Haruhiko Kuroda, its governor, from fulfilling his promise to do “whatever it takes” to rid Japan of deflation.

　　安倍的经济计划也已经显出疲态。四月份开始上涨的消费（增值）税已经使消费者们的开支大幅缩水。通货膨胀刚发的嫩芽已经开始凋零。核心通货膨胀率从四月份的1.5%跌倒了九月份的1%——这比之前日本央行所说的在2015年春之前达到2%的目标可还差得远了。此外，有传言说日本央行中的一位保守阵营中的老一辈大人物正逐渐重获话语权，并可能让央行行长黑田东彦无法履行其“不惜任何代价”地为日本消除通货紧缩。

　　As it was, Mr Kuroda only narrowly won consent for the bank's move. On October 31st four of the board's nine members voted against expanding quantitative³ easing. That lack of consensus⁴ caused almost as much of a stir as the easing itself.

　　鉴于此，黑田东彦在这次事件中也只堪堪得到了过半数的支持。十月三十一日的董事会九名成员中有四名选择了反对扩大量化宽松。这种意见不一的混乱局面所引起的关注和量化宽松本身相比也不逞多让。

　　日本与安倍经济.jpg

　　Yet the BoJ's move strengthens another consensus among Japan's policymakers, which is that Mr Abe will soon be obliged to press ahead with a second rise in the consumption tax, next October, from 8% to 10%. Mr Abe has to decide by the end of this year if he is not going to, in order to introduce legislation to stop the hike. After a dreadful second quarter, when GDP shrank by an annualised 7.1%, many of Mr Abe's economic advisers⁶ are convinced that the initial rise was a mistake. A battle is on between the finance ministry⁷, which is pushing for the increase to deal with Japan's ballooning public debt, and the prime minister's office, which leans towards altering the timetable. Akira Amari, the key minister for economic reforms, seems to favour sticking to the timetable.

　　不过日本央行的这次举措倒是让日本决策者们在另一件事上更加意见一致。这指的是安倍晋三在明年十一月将不得不推行的第二轮消费税上调，将从8%上涨到10%。安倍如果不想这么办，那就得在年底前作出决定，好通过立法程序来阻止消费税的上涨。第三季度可谓凄惨，年化GDP缩水7.1%，不少安倍的经济顾问都认为最初的消费税上涨就是个错误。日本财务省力推提高消费税以期解决日本不断膨胀的公共债务，而另一边的首相一方则倾向于修改消费税上涨的时间，这便是交战的双方。经济改革中的重要大臣甘利明似乎支持保持目前的计划不变。

　　In reality, argues Gerald Curtis of Columbia University, the radical⁸ action taken by Mr Kuroda, a staunch advocate of a hike in the consumption tax in order to maintain the country's fiscal⁹ credibility, may have removed most of the prime minister's political leeway for postponing¹⁰ one. Mr Abe is likely to make his decision after final GDP figures for the third quarter are released in early December; a closely watched preliminary estimate comes out on November 17th.

　　而哥伦比亚大学的Ferald Curtis表示，实际上作为坚持要提高消费税的黑田东彦，他这次的大动作可能以及让安倍晋三在推迟税改问题上没有太多的政治余地了。安倍很有可能在十二月初时候第三季度最终的GDP数据出来后作出决定；而备受瞩目的初期预估数据将在十一月十七日公布。

　　The problem with an increase in the consumption tax is that it hits the very people who need to spend more. In similar fashion to America or Europe, quantitative easing has benefited big businesses and wealthy individuals owning shares or property in Tokyo and a few other big cities. But ordinary Japanese, notably¹¹ in the regions that are emptying of people, feel left behind. Support for Abenomics is slipping as more people feel there is little in it for them. As well as the rise in the consumption tax, households have had to contend with higher prices from a weaker yen¹², notably higher energy and fuel costs. At least these have fallen in recent weeks as global demand for oil has weakened. It is one reason Mr Kuroda felt able to act by loosening policy further. The yen weakened immediately. The news that the government pension fund will double its holdings of equities¹³, including foreign ones, has also helped drive down the yen even as it has boosted stockmarkets.

　　消费税的提高打击的正是那些需要敞开腰包多多消费的人们，而这便是问题所在。和美国或者欧洲类似，量化宽松的受益者是大型企业以及坐拥东京地产或者其他不多的几个大城市地产的富人。但是日本的普通民众，尤其是那些患无人烟地区的人们，似乎感觉是被抛弃了。越来越多的人们感觉安倍经济并没有给他们带来什么好处，于是安倍经济的支持也开始走下坡路。

　　In all the excitement over monetary¹⁴ easing, the part of Mr Abe's programme to do with structural¹⁵ reform has gone mostly unmentioned. The government has at times dangled¹⁶ the prospect¹⁷ of impressively bold reforms, such as allowing firms to fire permanent workers in return for severance¹⁸ pay while also making the employment of Japan's millions of workers on non-permanent contracts more secure.

　　在所有货币宽松所引起的骚动中，安倍晋三的结构性改革计划是最为不引人注目的。政府已经不止一次地拿大胆锐意改革的美好前景来吊人胃口了，例如，承诺公司可以通过支付买断费来解雇长期工，以此来使日本数以千万计的非长期合同工得到更多的保障。

　　In some areas, good progress on such reforms is being made, in particular over the participation¹⁹ of women at work. Some 820,000 women have joined the workforce²⁰ since Mr Abe came to office in 2012. The government will oblige large companies to publish figures on the number of women on boards. Two-fifths of career civil servants hired this year were female, a sizeable jump. The hope is that the scandals around the resignations last month of two women cabinet ministers, following minor²¹ financial misdeeds, will not prove too severe a setback²² to the government's campaign to better the lot of working women.

　　改革已经在一些领域取得成绩，尤其是在女性参与工作方面。自从安倍晋三2012年上台以来，约82万女性已经步入职场。政府要求大型公司必须公布董事会成员中的女性数量。今年所招录的公务员中有五分之二是女性，这可是一大进步。上个月两位女性内阁大臣因财务上的小过失而引咎辞职，人们希望此丑闻不会给政府为女性谋福利的努力带来太多负面影响。

　　Elsewhere, in a series of special economic zones, experiments are taking place to free up strict regulations over farming and other sectors²³. Yet overall, says Heizo Takenaka, an adviser⁵ to Mr Abe, the government's attempts are falling short. Mr Takenaka was once enthusiastic about the prospects²⁴ for stronger leadership.

　　此外，诸多经济特区已经开始了改革试验，以放宽对农业以及其他部门的管束。但是，安倍的顾问Heizo Takenaka表示，政府的表现还不够好。Takenaka曾对这届更为强势的领导层充满信心和憧憬。

　　As barons²⁵ in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party last month sought the means to silence the opposition²⁶ on the subject of political-funding scandals, speculation²⁷ grew that Mr Abe might call a snap election by the end of this year, discomfiting²⁸ an opposition in general disarray²⁹. Similar rumours swirled³⁰ following the central bank's action. Yet with a majority in both houses of the Diet guaranteed until 2016, Mr Abe already has the muscle to make real reforms. He just needs to use it.

　　上个月里执政党自民党中的大人物试图以防民之口的方式来应对人们对政府资金丑闻的非议，因此，越来越多的人们猜测安倍晋三可能在今年年末之前进行提前选举，以解决人们对这一混乱局面的反对情绪。而日本央行的此次举动也引起了类似的流言与猜测。而鉴于日本国会的参议院和众议院中大部分成员都会在2016年前保有议员身份，因此安倍晋三其实已经有了在改革上大展拳脚的资本。关键就看他是否要这样做了。

1 rumours   

n.传闻( rumour的名词复数 )；风闻；谣言；谣传

参考例句：

• The rumours were completely baseless. 那些谣传毫无根据。
• Rumours of job losses were later confirmed. 裁员的传言后来得到了证实。

2 regaining   

复得( regain的现在分词 )； 赢回； 重回； 复至某地

参考例句：

• She was regaining consciousness now, but the fear was coming with her. 现在她正在恢发她的知觉，但是恐怖也就伴随着来了。
• She said briefly, regaining her will with a click. 她干脆地答道，又马上重新振作起精神来。

3 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。

4 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

5 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

6 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

7 ministry   

n.(政府的)部；牧师

参考例句：

• They sent a deputation to the ministry to complain.他们派了一个代表团到部里投诉。
• We probed the Air Ministry statements.我们调查了空军部的记录。

8 radical   

n.激进份子，原子团，根号；adj.根本的，激进的，彻底的

参考例句：

• The patient got a radical cure in the hospital.病人在医院得到了根治。
• She is radical in her demands.她的要求十分偏激。

9 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

10 postponing   

v.延期，推迟( postpone的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• He tried to gain time by postponing his decision. 他想以迟迟不作决定的手段来争取时间。 来自辞典例句
• I don't hold with the idea of postponing further discussion of the matter. 我不赞成推迟进一步讨论这件事的想法。 来自辞典例句

11 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

12 yen   

n. 日元；热望

参考例句：

• He wanted to convert his dollars into Japanese yen.他想将美元换成日币。
• He has a yen to be alone in a boat.他渴望独自呆在一条船上。

13 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

14 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

15 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

16 dangled   

悬吊着( dangle的过去式和过去分词 )； 摆动不定； 用某事物诱惑…； 吊胃口

参考例句：

• Gold charms dangled from her bracelet. 她的手镯上挂着许多金饰物。
• It's the biggest financial incentive ever dangled before British footballers. 这是历来对英国足球运动员的最大经济诱惑。

17 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

18 severance   

n.离职金；切断

参考例句：

• Those laid off received their regular checks,plus vacation and severance pay.那些被裁的人都收到他们应得的薪金，再加上假期和解职的酬金。Kirchofer was terminated,effective immediately--without severance or warning.科奇弗被解雇了，立刻生效--而且没有辞退费或者警告。

19 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

20 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

21 minor   

adj.较小(少)的，较次要的；n.辅修学科；vi.辅修

参考例句：

• The young actor was given a minor part in the new play.年轻的男演员在这出新戏里被分派担任一个小角色。
• I gave him a minor share of my wealth.我把小部分财产给了他。

22 setback   

n.退步，挫折，挫败

参考例句：

• Since that time there has never been any setback in his career.从那时起他在事业上一直没有遇到周折。
• She views every minor setback as a disaster.她把每个较小的挫折都看成重大灾难。

23 sectors   

n.部门( sector的名词复数 )；领域；防御地区；扇形

参考例句：

• Berlin was divided into four sectors after the war. 战后柏林分成了4 个区。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Industry and agriculture are the two important sectors of the national economy. 工业和农业是国民经济的两个重要部门。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

24 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

25 barons   

男爵( baron的名词复数 )； 巨头； 大王； 大亨

参考例句：

• The barons of Normandy had refused to countenance the enterprise officially. 诺曼底的贵族们拒绝正式赞助这桩买卖。
• The barons took the oath which Stephen Langton prescribed. 男爵们照斯蒂芬？兰顿的指导宣了誓。

26 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

27 speculation   

n.思索，沉思；猜测；投机

参考例句：

• Her mind is occupied with speculation.她的头脑忙于思考。
• There is widespread speculation that he is going to resign.人们普遍推测他要辞职。

28 discomfiting   

v.使为难( discomfit的现在分词 )；使狼狈；使挫折；挫败

参考例句：

• The Atomic Bazaar is an excellent introduction to this most discomfiting topic. 原子集市》是关于这个极令人不安的话题的一本优秀的入门读物。 来自互联网
• It is a discomfiting historical fact that great power shifts in the global economy are dangerous. 一个令人不安的历史事实是：全球经济中的重大权力转移是危险的。 来自互联网

29 disarray   

n.混乱，紊乱，凌乱

参考例句：

• His personal life fell into disarray when his wife left him.妻子离去后，他的个人生活一片混乱。
• Our plans were thrown into disarray by the rail strike.铁路罢工打乱了我们的计划。

30 swirled   

v.旋转，打旋( swirl的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The waves swirled and eddied around the rocks. 波浪翻滚着在岩石周围打旋。
• The water swirled down the drain. 水打着旋流进了下水道。