经济学人:商政不分家 各国政治变动对经济的影响

 　　Business: Schumpeter: Risky¹ business

　　商业：熊皮特：冒险的生意

　　Managers need to watch political risk in developed markets as well as emerging ones.

　　管理者不仅需要留意新兴市场，还要关注成熟市场的政治风险。

　　Multinational² companies have always paid careful attention to political risk in the developing world.

　　跨国企业向来密切关注发展中市场的政治风险。

　　No surprise there, given the risk premium³ attached to investment in emerging markets.

　　鉴于那些新兴市场投资的风险溢价，这样积极关注也是理所当然的。

　　Western businesses turn for advice to consultancies that keep a watchful⁴ eye on alarming developments in far-flung places.

　　远离西方世界的地区因政治原因导致市场发展令人担忧，顾问公司对此密切关注，西方的企业便向这些公司寻求帮助。

　　There is booming demand for political-risk insurance that can protect companies against shocks, be they coups⁵ in Turkey, sanctions against Russia or a debt default by Venezuela.

　　政治风险保险大受欢迎，它能保护企业不受政治变动的影响，例如土耳其的政变、针对俄罗斯的仲裁、以及委内瑞拉的债务违约等。

　　Now, however, firms need to pay the same attention to political risk in the developed world.

　　然而，如今对待成熟市场的政治风险，企业们也必须寄予同样的关注度。

　　Just consider the latest news from the American election trail.

　　看看近期美国总统的选举过程就知道了。

　　The woman who stands between the presidency⁶ and a hot-head who wants to tear up the world’s trading system is losing her air of invincibility⁷, due to an unguarded comment about a “basket of deplorables”, a bout⁸ of pneumonia⁹ and a foolish decision to conceal¹⁰ the illness from voters.

　　与川普——那位想瓦解全球贸易体系的鲁莽之人——竞选总统的希拉里，一不留神说漏了嘴而指责川普的支持者为 “一群可悲的人”，并向选民隐瞒肺炎发作的症状，而这等愚蠢的行为正在削弱其所向披靡的气势。

　　Britain’s vote on Brexit in June was a reminder¹¹ that impossibles may turn into improbables, and then quickly become fact.

　　今年六月，英国公投选择脱离欧盟就表明曾经的天方夜谭也能成为可能，继而迅速发展为现实。

　　Businesses now face years of uncertainty¹² as politicians thrash out the details of the Anglo-continental divorce settlement.

　　政客们正在研究解决 “英国与欧盟的离婚协议” 细节，众多企业从此将面临多年的政治不确定性。

　　Europe faces various possible crises.

　　欧洲正面临多种多样的潜在危机。

　　Spain is on its way to its third election in a year.

　　西班牙正在酝酿着一年内的第三次选举。

　　Matteo Renzi, prime minister of Italy, has promised to resign if he loses a constitutional referendum due by the end of the year, which would threaten political turmoil¹³ just when the banking¹⁴ system is particularly shaky.

　　意大利将于今年年底举行宪法公投，其总理马泰奥·伦齐宣布如果自己落选将主动辞去总理一职，此举可能威胁到意大利的政局稳定性，特别在其银行系统正岌岌可危的情况下。

　　Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor¹⁵ and until now the iron woman of European politics, is weakening rapidly because of her unpopular policy on refugees.

　　而至今仍被称为欧洲政坛铁娘子的德国总理安格拉·默克尔也因其难民政策而不得人心，逐渐失去了影响力。

　　Plenty of commentators¹⁶ reckon the world of risk is turning upside down.

　　众多评论家们都认为全球风险指标正在发生180度的大转变。

　　“Political risk has shifted to the developed world,” gloated a recent column in South Africa’s Rand Daily Mail.

　　最近一期南非兰德每日邮报的专栏写着 “政治风险已经转移到发达国家”，颇有点幸灾乐祸的意味。

　　It is easy to see why this idea has traction¹⁷.

　　其实要理解为何有人支持这个想法并不难。

　　The Indian government is both stable and pro-business.

　　印度政府目前处于和平稳定状态，并积极支持企业发展。

　　Vladimir Putin has imposed order on Russia, albeit¹⁸ at a horribly high cost.

　　俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京维持了俄罗斯的秩序，尽管为此付出了惊人的高昂代价。

　　China produces five-year plans while America struggles to pass a budget.

　　中国也制定了一些五年计划，而美国还在费劲力求通过哪项预算法案呢。

　　But it is a misguided view, nonetheless.

　　但那种观点仍然具有误导性。

　　Brazil lurches from one corruption-driven crisis to another.

　　巴西一次又一次地陷入由贪污导致的危机之中。

　　Jacob Zuma’s government in South Africa is riven by graft¹⁹ and incompetence²⁰.

　　由雅各布·祖玛领导的南非政府因政府无能和渎职而四分五裂。

　　The Philippines, which has one of the world’s best recent records on economic growth, has elected a Trumplestiltskin of its own, Rodrigo Duterte.

　　而近期创下世界最高经济增长记录的菲律宾也难逃一劫：其人民选举了 “菲律宾川普” ——罗德里戈·杜特尔特——作为其国家领导人。

　　There isn’t a fixed²¹ lump of “instability” to be distributed around the globe.

　　目前，我们无法将全球哪些区域定义为 “不稳定”。

　　At the moment political turmoil is on the rise across most of the world.

　　因为政治动荡正在全球大范围扩张。

　　1.as well as 和...一样

　　例句:It is in his best interests as well as yours.

　　这符合他的最大利益，同时也符合你的利益。

　　2.economic growth 经济增长

　　例句:High interest rates have stunted²² economic growth.

　　高利率已经阻碍了经济的增长。

　　3.look down 俯视；瞧不起

　　例句:Don't look down on the role women can play.

　　不要瞧不起妇女的作用。

　　4.At the moment 此刻；当时

　　例句:I can just about tolerate it at the moment.

　　当时我差一点就忍受不了了。

1 risky   

adj.有风险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• It may be risky but we will chance it anyhow.这可能有危险，但我们无论如何要冒一冒险。
• He is well aware how risky this investment is.他心里对这项投资的风险十分清楚。

2 multinational   

adj.多国的，多种国籍的；n.多国籍公司，跨国公司

参考例句：

• The firm was taken over by a multinational consulting firm.这家公司被一个跨国咨询公司收购。
• He analyzed the relationship between multinational corporations and under-developed countries.他分析了跨国公司和不发达国家之间的关系。

3 premium   

n.加付款；赠品；adj.高级的；售价高的

参考例句：

• You have to pay a premium for express delivery.寄快递你得付额外费用。
• Fresh water was at a premium after the reservoir was contaminated.在水库被污染之后，清水便因稀而贵了。

4 watchful   

adj.注意的，警惕的

参考例句：

• The children played under the watchful eye of their father.孩子们在父亲的小心照看下玩耍。
• It is important that health organizations remain watchful.卫生组织保持警惕是极为重要的。

5 coups   

n.意外而成功的行动( coup的名词复数 )；政变；努力办到难办的事

参考例句：

• China has seen many political coups within the ruling class. 中国统治阶级内部发生过很多政变。 来自互联网
• Thailand has had eighteen coups or coup attendance since nineteen thirty-two. 泰国1932年以来有18次政变或参加政变。 来自互联网

6 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

7 invincibility   

n.无敌，绝对不败

参考例句：

• The myth of his and Nazi invincibility had been completely destroyed. 过去他本人之神奇传说，以及纳粹之不败言论，至此乃完全破灭。 来自辞典例句
• Our image of invincibility evaporated. 我们战无不胜的形象化为泡影了。 来自辞典例句

8 bout   

n.侵袭，发作；一次(阵，回)；拳击等比赛

参考例句：

• I was suffering with a bout of nerves.我感到一阵紧张。
• That bout of pneumonia enfeebled her.那次肺炎的发作使她虚弱了。

9 pneumonia   

n.肺炎

参考例句：

• Cage was struck with pneumonia in her youth.凯奇年轻时得过肺炎。
• Pneumonia carried him off last week.肺炎上星期夺去了他的生命。

10 conceal   

v.隐藏，隐瞒，隐蔽

参考例句：

• He had to conceal his identity to escape the police.为了躲避警方，他只好隐瞒身份。
• He could hardly conceal his joy at his departure.他几乎掩饰不住临行时的喜悦。

11 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

12 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

13 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

14 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

15 chancellor   

n.(英)大臣；法官；(德、奥)总理；大学校长

参考例句：

• They submitted their reports to the Chancellor yesterday.他们昨天向财政大臣递交了报告。
• He was regarded as the most successful Chancellor of modern times.他被认为是现代最成功的财政大臣。

16 commentators   

n.评论员( commentator的名词复数 )；时事评论员；注释者；实况广播员

参考例句：

• Sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 体育解说员翻来覆去说着同样的词语，真叫人腻烦。
• Television sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 电视体育解说员说来说去就是那么几句话，令人厌烦。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 traction   

n.牵引；附着摩擦力

参考例句：

• I'll show you how the traction is applied.我会让你看如何做这种牵引。
• She's injured her back and is in traction for a month.她背部受伤，正在作一个月的牵引治疗。

18 albeit   

conj.即使；纵使；虽然

参考例句：

• Albeit fictional,she seemed to have resolved the problem.虽然是虚构的，但是在她看来好象是解决了问题。
• Albeit he has failed twice,he is not discouraged.虽然失败了两次，但他并没有气馁。

19 graft   

n.移植，嫁接，艰苦工作，贪污；v.移植，嫁接

参考例句：

• I am having a skin graft on my arm soon.我马上就要接受手臂的皮肤移植手术。
• The minister became rich through graft.这位部长透过贪污受贿致富。

20 incompetence   

n.不胜任，不称职

参考例句：

• He was dismissed for incompetence. 他因不称职而被解雇。
• She felt she had been made a scapegoat for her boss's incompetence. 她觉得，本是老板无能，但她却成了替罪羊。

21 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

22 stunted   

adj.矮小的；发育迟缓的

参考例句：

• the stunted lives of children deprived of education 未受教育的孩子所过的局限生活
• But the landed oligarchy had stunted the country's democratic development for generations. 但是好几代以来土地寡头的统治阻碍了这个国家民主的发展。