经济学人:明斯基的繁荣孕育泡沫破裂之种子(下)

 　　To Minsky, this was an “unfair and naive¹ representation of Keynes's subtle and sophisticated views”.

　　对于明斯基而言，这是“对凯恩斯的精妙且成熟的观点的一种不公平且天真的表述”。

　　Minsky's financial-instability hypothesis helped fill in the holes.

　　明斯基的金融不稳定假说帮助填补了这些漏洞。

　　His challenge to the prophets of efficient markets was even more acute.

　　他对有效市场预言家们的挑战甚至更加激烈。

　　Eugene Fama and Robert Lucas, among others, persuaded most of academia and policymaking circles that markets tended towards equilibrium² as people digested all available information.

　　尤金·法马和罗伯特·鲁卡斯等人已经说服了学术界和政策圈中的大多数人，让他们相信，随着人们对所有可以得到的信息的消化，市场将趋向于均衡。

　　The structure of the financial system was treated as almost irrelevant³.

　　金融市场的结构得到了几乎毫不相关的对待。

　　In recent years, behavioural economists⁵ have attacked one plank⁶ of efficient-market theory: people, far from being rational actors who maximise their gains, are often clueless about what they want and make the wrong decisions.

　　近年来，行为经济学家痛击了有效市场理论的一大支柱：人，远非是能将其收益最大化的理性角色，经常对他们想要的东西一无所知，而且常常做出错误的决定。

　　But years earlier Minsky had attacked another: deep-seated forces in financial systems propel them towards trouble, he argued, with stability only ever a fleeting⁷ illusion.

　　但是，此前数年，明斯基就已经痛击了有效理论的另一个支柱：他指出，鉴于稳定仅是一种转瞬即逝的幻觉，金融体系中的深层次力量将其推向困境。

　　Yet as an outsider in the sometimes cloistered⁸ world of economics, Minsky's influence was, until recently, limited.

　　然而，作为有时是与世隔绝的经济学世界的局外人，直到最近，明斯基的影响力都是有限的。

　　Investors⁹ were faster than professors to latch¹⁰ onto his views.

　　投资者比教授们更快地领会了他的观点。

　　More than anyone else it was Paul McCulley of PIMCO, a fund-management group, who popularised his ideas.

　　普及了他的思想的正是资产管理集团PIMCO的保罗·麦考利。

　　He coined the term “Minsky moment” to describe a situation when debt levels reach breaking-point and asset prices across the board start plunging¹¹.

　　他创造了“明斯基时刻”这个词汇来描述一种债务水平达到临界点、整个市场的资产价格开始跳水的情况。

　　Mr McCulley initially¹² used the term in explaining the Russian financial crisis of 1998.

　　最初，麦考利曾把这个词用于解释1998年俄罗斯金融危机。

　　Since the global turmoil¹³ of 2008, it has become ubiquitous.

　　自2008年的全球动荡以来，它已经变得无所不在了。

　　For investment analysts¹⁴ and fund managers, a “Minsky moment” is now virtually synonymous with a financial crisis.

　　如今，对于投资分析师和基金经理而言，“明斯基时刻”实际上就是金融危机的代名词。

　　Minsky's writing about debt and the dangers in financial innovation had the great virtue¹⁵ of according with experience.

　　明斯基关于债务和金融创新威胁的论述具有与经历相符的伟大优点。

　　But this virtue also points to what some might see as a shortcoming.

　　但是，这种优点还指向别人可能认为是一种短处的东西。

　　In trying to paint a more nuanced picture of the economy, he relinquished¹⁶ some of the potency¹⁷ of elegant models.

　　在尝试绘制一副更加细致入微的经济画卷的过程中，明斯基放弃了优雅模型中的某些影响力。

　　That was fine as far as he was concerned; he argued that generalisable theories were bunkum.

　　这是只有他才有的长处；他指出，凡是可以概括的理论都是夸夸其谈。

　　He wanted to explain specific situations, not economics in general.

　　他想要解释特殊情况，而不是一般意义上的经济学。

　　He saw the financial-instability hypothesis as relevant to the case of advanced capitalist economies with deep, sophisticated markets.

　　他把金融不稳定假说视同于具有深度、成熟市场的发达资本主义经济体的实例。

　　It was not meant to be relevant in all scenarios¹⁸.

　　它并非在所有情况下都是一样的。

　　These days, for example, it is fashionable to ask whether China is on the brink¹⁹ of a Minsky moment after its alarming debt growth of the past decade.

　　例如，如今，质疑中国在经历了过去十年的令人警醒的债务增长后是否正处于“明斯基时刻”边缘是很时髦的。

　　Yet a country in transition from socialism to a market economy and with an immature²⁰ financial system is not what Minsky had in mind.

　　然而，正处于从社会主义向市场经济转型而且具有不成熟金融体系的国家不是明斯基所考虑的。

　　Shunning²¹ the power of equations and models had its costs.

　　避开等式和模型的力量是有代价的。

　　It contributed to Minsky's isolation²² from mainstream²³ theories.

　　它直接造成了明斯基之于主流理论的孤立。

　　Economists did not entirely²⁴ ignore debt, even if they studied it only sparingly.

　　经济学家没有完全无视债务，即便他们只是有所保留地研究研究。

　　Some, such as Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Ben Bernanke, who would later become chairman of the Federal Reserve, looked at how credit could amplify²⁵ business cycles.

　　清泷信宏和后来会成为美联储主席的本·伯南克等人曾对信贷如何放大商业周期做过研究。

　　Minsky's work might have complemented²⁶ theirs, but they did not refer to it.

　　明斯基的工作或许补充了他们的研究，但是他们却没有提及它。

　　It was as if it barely existed.

　　好像它压根不存在一样。

　　Since Minsky's death, others have started to correct the oversight²⁷, grafting²⁸ his theories onto general models.

　　明斯基去世后，其他人开始纠正这种疏漏，将他的理论移植到通用模型中。

　　The Levy²⁹ Economics Institute of Bard³⁰ College in New York, where he finished his career (it still holds an annual conference in his honour) , has published work that incorporates his ideas in calculations.

　　他在那里走完了自己学术生涯的纽约巴德大学利维经济研究所发表了包含他关于计算的思想的研究。

　　One Levy paper, published in 2000, developed a Minsky-inspired model linking investment and cashflow.

　　发表于2000年的一份利维论文提出了一个受明斯基启发的将投资与现金流相连接的模型。

　　A 2005 paper for the Bank for International Settlements, a forum³¹ for central banks, drew on Minsky in building a model of how people assess their assets after making losses.

　　2005年，国际清算银行的一份论文在构建一个人们如何在出现损失后评估自己资产的模型时也曾引用过明斯基。

　　In 2010 Paul Krugman, a Nobel prize-winning economist⁴ who is best known these days as a New York Times columnist³², co-authored a paper that included the concept of a “Minsky moment” to model the impact of deleveraging on the economy.

　　2010年，现今以纽约时报专栏作家而闻名的诺贝尔奖得主经济学家保罗·克鲁格曼曾与别人共同完成了一份将“明斯基时刻”引入经济体去杠杆效果模型的论文。

　　Some researchers are also starting to test just how accurate Minsky's insights really were: a 2014 discussion paper for the Bank of Finland looked at debt-to-cashflow ratios, finding them to be a useful indicator³³ of systemic risk.

　　有些研究者也在开始验证明斯基的洞见到底有多么精确：芬兰银行2014年的一份讨论稿考察了债务/现金流比率，发现它们是一个很有用的系统风险指标。

　　Still, it would be a stretch to expect the financial-instability hypothesis to become a new foundation for economic theory.

　　然而，期望金融不稳定假说成为经济理论的一个新基础会是一大方向。

　　Minsky's legacy³⁴ has more to do with focusing on the right things than correctly structuring quantifiable models.

　　明斯基留给我们的理念更多地与关注正确的事情有关，而不是正确地构建可量化模型。

　　It is enough to observe that debt and financial instability, his main preoccupations, have become some of the principal topics of inquiry³⁵ for economists today.

　　看到他的主要关注点——债务和金融不稳定，已经成为当今经济学家讨论的一些主要话题就够了。

　　A new version of the “Handbook of Macroeconomics”, an influential³⁶ survey that was first published in 1999, is in the works.

　　1999年首版的有影响力的调查报告——《宏观经济学手册》的新版本正在准备之中。

　　This time, it will make linkages³⁷ between finance and economic activity a major component³⁸, with at least two articles citing Minsky.

　　这一次，它将把金融与经济活动间的联系列为一个主要部分，至少有两篇文章引用明斯基。

　　As Mr Krugman has quipped: “We are all Minskyites now.”

　　正如克鲁格曼所调侃的那样：“我们现在都是明斯基主义者”。

　　Central bankers seem to agree.

　　央行银行家似乎同意这种看法。

　　In a speech in 2009, before she became head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen said Minsky's work had “become required reading”.

　　在成为美联储主席之前，珍妮特·耶伦曾在2009年的一次演讲中称，明斯基的著作“已经成为必读书”。

　　In a 2013 speech, made while he was governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King agreed with Minsky's view that stability in credit markets leads to exuberance³⁹ and eventually to instability.

　　默文·金爵士曾在2013年在英格兰银行行长任上发表2013年的一篇演讲中，对明斯基关于信贷市场稳定导致过度充裕并最终带来不稳定的观点表示赞同。

　　Mark Carney, Lord King's successor, has referred to Minsky moments on at least two occasions.

　　他的继任者马克·卡尼已经至少在两个场合提到过明斯基时刻。

　　Will the moment last? Minsky's own theory suggests it will eventually peter out.

　　这种时刻将持续下去吗？明斯基本人的理论认为，这种时刻终将过去。

　　Economic growth is still shaky and the scars of the global financial crisis visible.

　　如今，经济增长仍然不稳定，全球金融危机的创伤依旧可见。

　　In the Minskyan trajectory⁴⁰, this is when firms and banks are at their most cautious, wary⁴¹ of repeating past mistakes and determined⁴² to fortify⁴³ their balance-sheets.

　　在明斯基时刻的轨迹中，这是企业和银行万分谨慎小心之时，一方面担心再犯过去的错误，另一方面已经下定决心加固自己的资产负债表。

　　But in time, memories of the 2008 turmoil will dim.

　　但是，总有那么一天，2008年的危机记忆终将褪去。

　　Firms will again race to expand, banks to fund them and regulators to loosen constraints⁴⁴.

　　企业将再次竞相扩张，银行将再次竞相为它们提供资金，监管者终将再次放松限制。

　　The warnings of Minsky will fade away.

　　明斯基的警告将逐渐消失。

　　The further we move on from the last crisis, the less we want to hear from those who see another one coming.

　　我们在远离上一次危机的路上走得越远，就越不愿意听从看到另一场危机正在到来的人。

　　1.fill in 填补；填写

　　例句:You will be asked to fill in a form with details of your birth and occupation.

　　你将需要填写一张有关生日和职业详情的表格。

　　2.fade away 消失

　　例句:Tears can be silent, but love will fade away free and easy!

　　泪可以保持沉默，但爱将消失自由和简单！

　　3.contributed to 促成；造就

　　例句:This has contributed to the lack of confidence in the police

　　这导致了大家对警方缺乏信任。

　　4.peter out 逐渐消失

　　例句:The six-month strike seemed to be petering out.

　　长达6个月的罢工好像正逐渐平息。

1 naive   

adj.幼稚的，轻信的；天真的

参考例句：

• It's naive of you to believe he'll do what he says.相信他会言行一致，你未免太单纯了。
• Don't be naive.The matter is not so simple.你别傻乎乎的。事情没有那么简单。

2 equilibrium   

n.平衡，均衡，相称，均势，平静

参考例句：

• Change in the world around us disturbs our inner equilibrium.我们周围世界的变化扰乱了我们内心的平静。
• This is best expressed in the form of an equilibrium constant.这最好用平衡常数的形式来表示。

3 irrelevant   

adj.不恰当的，无关系的，不相干的

参考例句：

• That is completely irrelevant to the subject under discussion.这跟讨论的主题完全不相关。
• A question about arithmetic is irrelevant in a music lesson.在音乐课上，一个数学的问题是风马牛不相及的。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 plank   

n.板条，木板，政策要点，政纲条目

参考例句：

• The plank was set against the wall.木板靠着墙壁。
• They intend to win the next election on the plank of developing trade.他们想以发展贸易的纲领来赢得下次选举。

7 fleeting   

adj.短暂的，飞逝的

参考例句：

• The girls caught only a fleeting glimpse of the driver.女孩们只匆匆瞥了一眼司机。
• Knowing the life fleeting,she set herself to enjoy if as best as she could.她知道这种日子转瞬即逝，于是让自已尽情地享受。

8 cloistered   

adj.隐居的，躲开尘世纷争的v.隐退，使与世隔绝( cloister的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• the cloistered world of the university 与世隔绝的大学
• She cloistered herself in the office. 她呆在办公室里好像与世隔绝一样。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

10 latch   

n.门闩，窗闩；弹簧锁

参考例句：

• She laid her hand on the latch of the door.她把手放在门闩上。
• The repairman installed an iron latch on the door.修理工在门上安了铁门闩。

11 plunging   

adj.跳进的，突进的v.颠簸( plunge的现在分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• War broke out again, plunging the people into misery and suffering. 战祸复发，生灵涂炭。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He is plunging into an abyss of despair. 他陷入了绝望的深渊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

12 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

13 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

14 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

15 virtue   

n.德行，美德；贞操；优点；功效，效力

参考例句：

• He was considered to be a paragon of virtue.他被认为是品德尽善尽美的典范。
• You need to decorate your mind with virtue.你应该用德行美化心灵。

16 relinquished   

交出，让给( relinquish的过去式和过去分词 )； 放弃

参考例句：

• She has relinquished the post to her cousin, Sir Edward. 她把职位让给了表弟爱德华爵士。
• The small dog relinquished his bone to the big dog. 小狗把它的骨头让给那只大狗。

17 potency   

n. 效力，潜能

参考例句：

• Alcohol increases the drug's potency.酒精能增加这种毒品的效力。
• Sunscreen can lose its potency if left over winter in the bathroom cabinet.如果把防晒霜在盥洗室的壁橱里放一个冬天，就有可能失效。

18 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

19 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

20 immature   

adj.未成熟的，发育未全的，未充分发展的

参考例句：

• Tony seemed very shallow and immature.托尼看起来好像很肤浅，不夠成熟。
• The birds were in immature plumage.这些鸟儿羽翅未全。

21 shunning   

v.避开，回避，避免( shun的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• My flight was more a shunning of external and internal dangers. 我的出走是要避开各种外在的和内在的威胁。 来自辞典例句
• That book Yeh-yeh gave me-"On Filial Piety and the Shunning of Lewdness"-was still on the table. 我坐下来，祖父给我的那本《刘芷唐先生教孝戒淫浅训》还在桌子上。 来自汉英文学 - 家（1-26） - 家（1-26）

22 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

23 mainstream   

n.（思想或行为的）主流；adj.主流的

参考例句：

• Their views lie outside the mainstream of current medical opinion.他们的观点不属于当今医学界观点的主流。
• Polls are still largely reflects the mainstream sentiment.民调还在很大程度上反映了社会主流情绪。

24 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

25 amplify   

vt.放大，增强；详述，详加解说

参考例句：

• The new manager wants to amplify the company.新经理想要扩大公司。
• Please amplify your remarks by giving us some examples.请举例详述你的话。

26 complemented   

有补助物的，有余格的

参考例句：

• The excellent menu is complemented by a good wine list. 佳肴佐以美酒，可称完美无缺。
• In vitro analysis must be complemented by studies of the virus replication cycle in plants. 体外的分析必须辅之以植物体内病毒复制周期的研究。

27 oversight   

n.勘漏，失察，疏忽

参考例句：

• I consider this a gross oversight on your part.我把这件事看作是你的一大疏忽。
• Your essay was not marked through an oversight on my part.由于我的疏忽你的文章没有打分。

28 grafting   

嫁接法，移植法

参考例句：

• Even grafting new blood vessels in place of the diseased coronary arteries has been tried. 甚至移植新血管代替不健康的冠状动脉的方法都已经试过。
• Burns can often be cured by grafting on skin from another part of the same body. 烧伤常常可以用移植身体其它部位的皮肤来治愈。

29 levy   

n.征收税或其他款项，征收额

参考例句：

• They levy a tax on him.他们向他征税。
• A direct food levy was imposed by the local government.地方政府征收了食品税。

30 bard   

n.吟游诗人

参考例句：

• I'll use my bard song to help you concentrate!我会用我的吟游诗人歌曲帮你集中精神！
• I find him,the wandering grey bard.我发现了正在徘徊的衰老游唱诗人。

31 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

32 columnist   

n.专栏作家

参考例句：

• The host was interviewing a local columnist.节目主持人正在同一位当地的专栏作家交谈。
• She's a columnist for USA Today.她是《今日美国报》的专栏作家。

33 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

34 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

35 inquiry   

n.打听，询问，调查，查问

参考例句：

• Many parents have been pressing for an inquiry into the problem.许多家长迫切要求调查这个问题。
• The field of inquiry has narrowed down to five persons.调查的范围已经缩小到只剩5个人了。

36 influential   

adj.有影响的，有权势的

参考例句：

• He always tries to get in with the most influential people.他总是试图巴结最有影响的人物。
• He is a very influential man in the government.他在政府中是个很有影响的人物。

37 linkages   

n.连接( linkage的名词复数 )；结合；联系；联动装置

参考例句：

• Only the thermosetting resins provide a strong cohesive forces; this is due to molecular cross linkages. 只有热固性树脂具有巨大的凝聚力，这是由于分子交错链所造成的。 来自辞典例句
• The linkages between the stable units must be as near as possible of equal stability. 稳定链节之间的键必须有尽可能接近的稳定性。 来自辞典例句

38 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

39 exuberance   

n.丰富；繁荣

参考例句：

• Her burst of exuberance and her brightness overwhelmed me.她勃发的热情和阳光的性格征服了我。
• The sheer exuberance of the sculpture was exhilarating.那尊雕塑表现出的勃勃生机让人振奋。

40 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

41 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

42 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

43 fortify   

v.强化防御，为…设防；加强，强化

参考例句：

• This country will fortify the coastal areas.该国将加强沿海地区的防御。
• This treaty forbade the United States to fortify the canal.此条约禁止美国对运河设防。

44 constraints   

强制( constraint的名词复数 )； 限制； 约束

参考例句：

• Data and constraints can easily be changed to test theories. 信息库中的数据和限制条件可以轻易地改变以检验假设。 来自英汉非文学 - 科学史
• What are the constraints that each of these imply for any design? 这每种产品的要求和约束对于设计意味着什么？ 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓