经济学人266:阿根廷债务 别签协议啦

 　　Argentina's debt

　　阿根廷债务

　　Let's not make a deal

　　别签协议啦

　　Argentina may spurn¹ a chance to settle with its creditors²

　　阿根廷或将还债机会弃如敝履

　　WHEN Argentina defaulted on its debt for the second time in 13 years last July, the government blamed a pesky clause in its contracts with bondholders. The so-called Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) clause was set to expire on December 31st, in theory opening the way to a settlement with bondholders who had refused Argentina's earlier offers of partial payment. A deal would make it easier to borrow dollars, which the country badly needs to pay for imports. But the president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, may spurn the opportunity.

　　去年七月，阿根廷发生了十三年来的第二次债务违约，而政府却将这次违约归咎于与债权人签订的合同中的某项麻烦条款。由于之前债权人拒绝阿根廷部分偿还，这项本应于12月31日到期的“未来发行权利”（RUFO）条款理论上可以解决与债权人之间的债务问题。这项协议可以为阿根廷借入美元提供更多便利，有了美元，阿根廷就可以解决进口商品所使用货币的燃眉之急。不过，克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·基什内尔总统却有可能将这一机会弃如敝履。

　　After its previous default (in 2001) Argentina offered RUFO as a way to entice⁴ bondholders to swap⁵ the old debt for new bonds worth much less than the original ones. The clause says that any future deal offered to some bondholders would be extended to all of them. In 2012 a court in New York ruled that Argentina would have to pay in full the small minority of bondholders who refused the debt swap. These are mostly American hedge funds, which bought the bonds at a fraction of their face value. Argentina argued that complying with the court order would trigger billions in payments to all holders³ of bonds issued under New York law, and so chose to default. Since the court's ruling, its foreign-exchange reserves have dwindled⁶ to $30 billion, less than needed to pay for six months' imports. Low commodity prices mean that few dollars are flowing in.

　　上次（2001年）债务违约后，阿根廷通过 RUFO 怂恿债券持有人进行债务掉期，也就是说用原先价格较低的旧债券交换价格较高的新债券。这一条款规定，合同签署后，政府和部分债券持有人达成的协议将适用于全体债券持有人。 2012年，纽约一家法院判定阿根廷政府应向拒绝债务掉期的少数债券持有人一次付清所有债务。后者主要是美国对冲基金，它们当初就是以远远低于面值的价格买入了阿根廷债券。阿根廷称，根据纽约法律，按法庭裁决行事将导致对债券持有人支付高达数十亿的费用，于是便选择了违约。法院作出判决后，阿根廷外汇储备已缩减至300亿美元，甚至不足以支付六个月的商品进口。较低物价意味着美元流入会更少。

　　阿根廷债务问题.jpg

　　The government has responded by further restricting imports, which has led to shortages of supplies to factories and of some consumer goods. That is one reason why the economy is expected to shrink by around 1% in 2015. Debt payments during the year will siphon off some 40% of international reserves. In December Argentina tried to reduce that drain by offering holders of bonds due for repayment⁷ new securities that mature in 2024. The gambit failed miserably⁸: just 4% of creditors volunteered to exchange their 2015 bonds.

　　由于限制进口导致工厂供货和部分日用品出现了短缺，政府已对进一步限制进口做出了回应。这便是阿根廷经济增速预计将在2015年下跌1个百分点的原因之一。全年的债务将造成外汇储备流失40%。十二月时，阿根廷曾试图给债券持有人提供2024年到期的新债券，以避免本国外汇储备消耗过快。这项策略后以惨败告终：只有4%的债权人自愿用2015年债券进行兑换。

　　Things are so desperate that the government will soon make an attractive offer to holdout bondholders, some observers believe. The expiration⁹ of the RUFO clause makes the cost bearable; the government would not have to make the same offer to the other bondholders.

　　一些观察家认为，当前情况万分危急，政府不久就会制定出富有吸引力的政策来维系人心。这次RUFO条款期满后，违约成本尚可担负；但政府今后不会再和其他债券持有人签署同样的协议了。

　　But that is a minority view. The real obstacles to paying off the holdouts have always been political rather than contractual, many think. Ms Fernández and her advisers¹⁰ demonised them as “vultures” and blamed them for many of Argentina's woes¹¹. To pay them now would be awkward, and the economic gains might be modest. Luis Secco of Perspectivas, a consulting firm, argues that turmoil¹² in Venezuela, Russia and other emerging markets will make investors¹³ hesitant to lend to Argentina. Even if the government reaches an agreement with creditors, “it won't rain dollars,” he says.

　　不过，这只是小部分人的看法。许多人认为，一直以来，政府无力清偿债务的真正原因都不是合同问题，而是各种政治方面的因素。在费尔南德斯总统及其幕僚那里，债券持有人遭到了妖魔化—这群“秃鹫”俨然成了阿根廷诸多灾难的罪魁祸首。现在就给他们还债听起来甚是荒唐，经济也可能只是适度增长。咨询公司 Perspectivas 的 Luis Secco 认为，委内瑞拉、俄罗斯以及其他新兴市场的混乱局面将使投资者对于收购阿根廷债券犹豫不决。即使政府同债权人达成了协议，“天上也不会掉美元，”他这样说。

　　Besides, ask sceptics, why should Ms Fernández strike a bargain that would bring political benefits mainly to her successor? She will stand down as president after elections next October; none of the prospective¹⁴ candidates so far has her backing. The easiest course of action would be to hand off the debt fiasco to the next president—and let the economy pay the price.

　　此外，怀疑人士还提出了一个问题：为什么费尔南德斯总统会签署一份政治利益主要荫泽后任的协议呢？过了明年十月，她就要从总统任上退休了；这些候选人里并无她所支持的对象。最简单的做法就绕过债务泥潭，让下一任总统收拾烂摊子—代价就让经济来付吧。

1 spurn   

v.拒绝，摈弃；n.轻视的拒绝；踢开

参考例句：

• They spurn all our offers of help.他们拒绝接受我们提出的一切援助。
• As an armyman,I spurn fearlessly at all danger and the enemy.作为一个军人，一切危险和敌人丝毫不在我的眼。

2 creditors   

n.债权人，债主( creditor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• They agreed to repay their creditors over a period of three years. 他们同意3年内向债主还清欠款。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Creditors could obtain a writ for the arrest of their debtors. 债权人可以获得逮捕债务人的令状。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 holders   

支持物( holder的名词复数 )； 持有者； （支票等）持有人； 支托（或握持）…之物

参考例句：

• Slaves were mercilessly ground down by slave holders. 奴隶受奴隶主的残酷压迫。
• It is recognition of compassion's part that leads the up-holders of capital punishment to accuse the abolitionists of sentimentality in being more sorry for the murderer than for his victim. 正是对怜悯的作用有了认识，才使得死刑的提倡者指控主张废除死刑的人感情用事，同情谋杀犯胜过同情受害者。

4 entice   

v.诱骗，引诱，怂恿

参考例句：

• Nothing will entice the children from television.没有任何东西能把孩子们从电视机前诱开。
• I don't see why the English should want to entice us away from our native land.我不明白，为什英国人要引诱我们离开自己的国土。

5 swap   

n.交换；vt.交换，用...作交易

参考例句：

• I will swap you my bicycle for your radio.我想拿我的自行车换你的收音机。
• This comic was a swap that I got from Nick.这本漫画书是我从尼克那里换来的。

6 dwindled   

v.逐渐变少或变小( dwindle的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Support for the party has dwindled away to nothing. 支持这个党派的人渐渐化为乌有。
• His wealth dwindled to nothingness. 他的钱财化为乌有。 来自《简明英汉词典》

7 repayment   

n.偿还，偿还款；报酬

参考例句：

• I am entitled to a repayment for the damaged goods.我有权利索取货物损坏赔偿金。
• The tax authorities have been harrying her for repayment.税务局一直在催她补交税款。

8 miserably   

adv.痛苦地；悲惨地；糟糕地；极度地

参考例句：

• The little girl was wailing miserably. 那小女孩难过得号啕大哭。
• It was drizzling, and miserably cold and damp. 外面下着毛毛细雨，天气又冷又湿，令人难受。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 expiration   

n.终结，期满，呼气，呼出物

参考例句：

• Can I have your credit card number followed by the expiration date?能告诉我你的信用卡号码和它的到期日吗?
• This contract shall be terminated on the expiration date.劳动合同期满，即行终止。

10 advisers   

顾问，劝告者( adviser的名词复数 )； （指导大学新生学科问题等的）指导教授

参考例句：

• a member of the President's favoured circle of advisers 总统宠爱的顾问班子中的一员
• She withdrew to confer with her advisers before announcing a decision. 她先去请教顾问然后再宣布决定。

11 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

12 turmoil   

n.骚乱，混乱，动乱

参考例句：

• His mind was in such a turmoil that he couldn't get to sleep.内心的纷扰使他无法入睡。
• The robbery put the village in a turmoil.抢劫使全村陷入混乱。

13 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

14 prospective   

adj.预期的，未来的，前瞻性的

参考例句：

• The story should act as a warning to other prospective buyers.这篇报道应该对其他潜在的购买者起到警示作用。
• They have all these great activities for prospective freshmen.这会举办各种各样的活动来招待未来的新人。