经济学人269:无将之军 谁能堪当奥巴马领袖之重任?

 　　Lexington

　　莱克星顿

　　An army without generals

　　无将之军

　　If Barack Obama is not really the leader of the Democratic Party, who is?

　　如果奥巴马不是民主党真正的领袖，那么谁是？

　　THOUGH leading the Republican Party can be a trying task, many politicians want to have a go. Ambition swirls¹ so thickly in the halls of the 114th Congress, which was sworn in on January 6th, that it can almost be touched. Republican leaders, whips and committee chairmen, even the bosses of rebellious² factions³: all yearn⁴ to use their party's newly won control of the Senate and House of Representatives to make Barack Obama's life miserable⁵ and promote voter-pleasing conservative policies. As for the 2016 presidential nomination⁶, around a dozen Republican bigwigs are circling the starting-line of that contest, eyes agleam. The party is fractious, but it is filled with energy, and those who would lead.

　　虽说领导共和党是个尝试性的任务，但许多政客都想要参与其中。114届国会于1月6日宣誓就职，在这届的国会大厅内，野心的漩涡异常浓厚，仿佛伸手可触。共和党领袖、政党纪律委员、委员会主席，甚至是反叛派的头，都渴望利用自己党派赢得新的竞选从而控制参众两院，好让奥巴马的日子难过并推进选民欢迎的保守性政策。至于2016总统候选人提名，约十几位共和党内的大人物已经站在了起跑线上跃跃欲试，眼睛里闪烁着光芒。共和党是急躁的，但它满是能量，也满是野心上位的人。

　　无将之军.jpg

　　The contrast with the Democratic Party is striking. The party remains⁷ a potent⁸ force in national politics, even after 2014's mid-term elections cost it control of the Senate and left it with fewer House members than at any time since 1946. But as Democrats⁹ head into the final two years of the Obama era, they resemble an army without a commander-in-chief, or even generals whom footsoldiers might follow into battle.

　　民主党则与其形成了鲜明对比。即使在2014年中期选举后民主党失去了参议院控制权，且其众议院席位降至1946年以来最低，但民主党在国家政治中仍有强大力量。但随着民主党的领导进入了奥巴马时代的最后两年，它就像一支没有司令的军队，甚至没有将军能带领补兵上战场。

　　In Congress the Democratic leaders of the Senate and House are both in their 70s, as are many of their lieutenants¹⁰. Both are crafty¹¹ tacticians more than inspiring thinkers. Neither represents the future. Out in the country, Republicans can point to any number of governors who look like conservative champions, busy turning their states into laboratories for tax-cutting, government-shrinking experiments. Only a handful of Democratic governors similarly dominate their states' politics—the most prominent, Jerry Brown of California, is 76 years old.

　　国会中，参众两院的民主党领导人都已70多岁，身边助手成群。他们都是狡猾的战术家而非启蒙思想家。他们都无法代表未来。在国内，共和党可以找出许多看起来像保守党领袖的州长，他们忙着把自己的州变成减税及政府缩减试验的试验区。只有极少数民主党州长在州内做同样的事情—最突出的就是加利福尼亚州76岁的州长杰瑞·布朗。

　　Hillary Clinton will dominate her party's presidential primary if and when she says she is running. At the moment, she is a spectral¹² presence—freezing the 2016 contest without offering leadership. If she does not run, it is not obvious who could replace her. Some like to daydream¹³ about Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Wall Street-bashing populist who is to the left of centre in her home state, Massachusetts, which is in turn to the left of centre of America as a whole. Ms Warren says she is not running for president (she favours the present tense), which makes her more sensible than her supporters: as a matter of cold electoral maths, she cannot win a nationwide contest.

　　如果希拉里·克林顿表明要参与党内总统初选，那么她将主宰竞选。目前，她是一种幽灵式的存在—没提供领导能力就定格了2016的竞选。如果她不参与竞选，没人知道谁能取代她。有人幻想会是参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦（Elizabeth Warren）。她是抨击华尔街的民粹主义者，立场属于中间偏左，她的家乡马萨诸塞州正整体向中间偏左转变。沃伦说她并未参加总统竞选（她喜欢用现在时时态），这使她比她的支持者更加明智：根据糟糕的选举数据，她不可能赢得全国范围内的竞选。

　　President Obama's relations with the Democratic Party are increasingly complicated. After a wretched 2014, during which he seemed buffeted¹⁴ by events, Republicans successfully made the mid-term elections a referendum on his competence¹⁵, prompting Democrats in some conservative states to try to disown him (in vain—most such Democrats lost anyway). Since then, Mr Obama has defied predictions of his imminent¹⁶ irrelevance¹⁷. He has used his executive powers to shield millions of migrants from deportation¹⁸, and started to dismantle¹⁹ the (remarkably ineffective) embargo²⁰ against Cuba. He has sketched²¹ out future policies that may define his legacy²², from new rules to protect the environment to global trade pacts²³. Republicans will try to thwart²⁴ many of his plans. Global events continue to menace him. But as much as his office permits, Mr Obama is setting the agenda.

　　总统奥巴马与民主党的关系日益复杂。在他被事件冲击的悲惨的2014过去后，共和党成功地把中期选举办成了对他能力的公民投票，推动一些保守州内民主党人对他的否定（这不过是徒劳，因为多数民主党人已经失去了席位）。此后，奥巴马蔑视关于他即将下台的预言。他利用自己的行政权力保护了数百万移民免受驱逐，并废除了对古巴明显无效的禁运政策。他勾勒出未来的政策趋势，从新环境保护规定到全球贸易协定，这些政策有可能成为他史册留名的资本。共和党人试图阻止他的多项计划。全球大事件继续威胁着他。但奥巴马正在自己的权限范围内，力定大局。。

　　Yet if Mr Obama is not quite the lame-duck president that critics foresaw, he is still a lame-duck leader of the Democratic Party. Partly, this is a question of differing incentives²⁵. Mr Obama wants a legacy. Democrats have future elections to win. As Mr Obama conceded to National Public Radio recently, such policies as unpicking the Cuban embargo are “frankly…easier” for a president at the end of his term. Mr Obama has a strong interest in achievements that can pass a Republican-held Congress. Two planned trade pacts, one with Asia-Pacific countries, the other with Europe, are a case in point. Republicans and some centrist Democrats want a deal. Left-wing Democrats and unions are appalled²⁶.

　　然而，即使奥巴马没有像评论家预测的那样成为跛脚鸭，他在民主党内的情况也将如此。部分来说，这是一个关于不同动机的问题。奥巴马想实测留名。民主党人想要赢得未来的选举。正如奥巴马近来在国家公共广播电台上承认的那样：坦白的说，像“解除古巴禁运”这样的政策，对一个任职末期的总统来说要容易得多。奥巴马很希望这项政策能在共和党控制的国会上通过。与亚太国家和欧洲国家的两项计划中的贸易协定就是个很好的例子。共和党与部分中间派民主党想要达成协议。左翼民主党和工会对此大为震惊。

　　In part, the end of the Obama era is a moment of political clarity, exposing the oddly transactional nature of his ties to his own party. Mr Obama did not become the Democrats' champion by explaining what sort of party they needed to be. He won office in 2008 by offering a new, post-racial, post-partisan form of politics, buttressed²⁷ by the promise of his own life-story and brilliant electoral technology. He kept office in 2012 by turning out an “Obama coalition” that united the young, the poor, non-whites, gays, urban hipsters, unmarried women and affluent²⁸ liberals. Other Democratic politicians went along for the ride, while grumbling²⁹ that their president was disappointingly aloof³⁰ and risk-averse.

　　在某种程度上，奥巴马时代的结束，是政治透明的标志时刻，也暴露出奥巴马与自己党派间古怪的交易本质。奥巴马不是通过解释他们需要成为什么类型的政党这一问题，而变成民主党领袖。2008年，他提出一个新的、超越种族的、超越党派的政治形式，以他个人人生经历和闪耀的选举技能为支撑，赢得了竞选。2012年，他创建了“奥巴马联盟”，联合了青年、穷人、非白种人、同性恋者、城市嬉皮士、未婚女性以及富裕的自由主义者，他借此得以连任。其他的民主党政客当时只是去凑凑热闹，抱怨奥巴马的冷漠和对风险的规避令人失望。

　　Breaches³² of decorum

　　失礼

　　Relations between Mr Obama and congressional Democrats are sourer than ever. In an unusual breach³¹ of decorum, the strains of the 2014 election prompted on-the-record grouching about the White House from a right-hand man to Harry³³ Reid, the Democratic leader in the Senate. A December budget crunch³⁴ saw Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats' boss in the House, fulminate against her own president's willingness to cut deals with Republicans.

　　奥巴马与国会民主党人之间的关系比以往任何时候都糟糕。2014选举的负担，催生出对白宫从得力助手到参议院民主党领袖哈利·瑞德的明面上的抱怨，这是极不寻常的失礼。众议院民主党领袖南希·佩洛西经历了12月预算的缩减后，严厉谴责总统个人想要削减与共和党的交易的意愿。

　　Greybeards counsel calm. Presidents inevitably³⁵ see their clout³⁶ ebb³⁷ as successors' elections near, says Tom Daschle, who led Senate Democrats from 1995 to 2005. If Mrs Clinton runs for the nomination, she will become an alternative centre of power which will grow in importance. If she does not run, “there is a list of people waiting in the wings”, Mr Daschle soothes³⁸, offering as examples two very different senators: Ms Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand (the junior senator from New York and a politician of Clinton-level pragmatism, without the Clintons' experience).

　　资深人士建议对此保持平静。1995至2005年参议院民主党领袖汤姆·达施勒说，随着继任选举的临近，总统不可避免的会看到自己影响力的衰弱。如果希拉里·克林顿参与提名，她将替代奥巴马成为愈发重要的权力中心。如果她不参与竞选，“还有一串名单上的人在伺机而动”。达施勒举了两个完全不同的参议员—沃伦和克尔斯滕·吉利布兰德—作为例子，如此的安慰道。

　　Other Democrats are less sure, seeing a problem that goes beyond personnel issues. “It is a little confusing who is leading the Democratic Party right now,” says a member of Congress who hears nothing “galvanising” from Mr Obama, and “no energy, no excitement”, from congressional bosses. Put another way, Democrats feel leaderless because the party lacks big, compelling ideas. Someone may yet fill that void. It needs to happen soon.

　　其他民主党人看到了超越人事范围的问题，并对此不太确定。一名国会议员说：“现在究竟是谁在领导民主党，这个问题让人有些困惑。”该议员表示，从奥巴马那里听不到任何激励，从国会领袖那里也听不到任何充满能量、让人兴奋的话语。另一方面，民主党人觉得没有领导者是因为民主党缺乏宏伟的、引人注目的计划。或许有人将要填补这个空白。需要尽快采取行动。

1 swirls   

n.旋转( swirl的名词复数 )；卷状物；漩涡；尘旋v.旋转，打旋( swirl的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Swirls of smoke rose through the trees. 树林中升起盘旋的青烟。 来自辞典例句
• On reaching the southeast corner of Himalaya-Tibet, It'swirls cyclonically across the Yunnan Plateau. 在到达喜马拉雅--西藏高原东南角处，它作气旋性转向越过云南高原。 来自辞典例句

2 rebellious   

adj.造反的，反抗的，难控制的

参考例句：

• They will be in danger if they are rebellious.如果他们造反，他们就要发生危险。
• Her reply was mild enough,but her thoughts were rebellious.她的回答虽然很温和，但她的心里十分反感。

3 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

4 yearn   

v.想念；怀念；渴望

参考例句：

• We yearn to surrender our entire being.我们渴望着放纵我们整个的生命。
• Many people living in big cities yearn for an idyllic country life.现在的很多都市人向往那种田园化的生活。

5 miserable   

adj.悲惨的，痛苦的；可怜的，糟糕的

参考例句：

• It was miserable of you to make fun of him.你取笑他，这是可耻的。
• Her past life was miserable.她过去的生活很苦。

6 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

7 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

8 potent   

adj.强有力的，有权势的；有效力的

参考例句：

• The medicine had a potent effect on your disease.这药物对你的病疗效很大。
• We must account of his potent influence.我们必须考虑他的强有力的影响。

9 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 lieutenants   

n.陆军中尉( lieutenant的名词复数 )；副职官员；空军；仅低于…官阶的官员

参考例句：

• In the army, lieutenants are subordinate to captains. 在陆军中，中尉是上尉的下级。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Lieutenants now cap at 1.5 from 1. Recon at 1. 中尉现在由1人口增加的1.5人口。侦查小组成员为1人口。 来自互联网

11 crafty   

adj.狡猾的，诡诈的

参考例句：

• He admired the old man for his crafty plan.他敬佩老者的神机妙算。
• He was an accomplished politician and a crafty autocrat.他是个有造诣的政治家，也是个狡黠的独裁者。

12 spectral   

adj.幽灵的，鬼魂的

参考例句：

• At times he seems rather ordinary.At other times ethereal,perhaps even spectral.有时他好像很正常，有时又难以捉摸，甚至像个幽灵。
• She is compelling,spectral fascinating,an unforgettably unique performer.她极具吸引力，清幽如鬼魅，令人着迷，令人难忘，是个独具特色的演员。

13 daydream   

v.做白日梦，幻想

参考例句：

• Boys and girls daydream about what they want to be.孩子们遐想着他们将来要干什么。
• He drifted off into another daydream.他飘飘然又做了一个白日梦。

14 buffeted   

反复敲打( buffet的过去式和过去分词 )； 连续猛击； 打来打去； 推来搡去

参考例句：

• to be buffeted by the wind 被风吹得左右摇摆
• We were buffeted by the wind and the rain. 我们遭到风雨的袭击。

15 competence   

n.能力，胜任，称职

参考例句：

• This mess is a poor reflection on his competence.这种混乱情况说明他难当此任。
• These are matters within the competence of the court.这些是法院权限以内的事。

16 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

17 irrelevance   

n.无关紧要；不相关；不相关的事物

参考例句：

• the irrelevance of the curriculum to children's daily life 课程与孩子们日常生活的脱节
• A President who identifies leadership with public opinion polls dooms himself to irrelevance. 一位总统如果把他的领导和民意测验投票结果等同起来，那么他注定将成为一个可有可无的人物。 来自辞典例句

18 deportation   

n.驱逐，放逐

参考例句：

• The government issued a deportation order against the four men.政府发出了对那4名男子的驱逐令。
• Years ago convicted criminals in England could face deportation to Australia.很多年以前，英国已定罪的犯人可能被驱逐到澳大利亚。

19 dismantle   

vt.拆开，拆卸；废除，取消

参考例句：

• He asked for immediate help from the United States to dismantle the warheads.他请求美国立即提供援助，拆除这批弹头。
• The mower firmly refused to mow,so I decided to dismantle it.修完后割草机还是纹丝不动，于是，我决定把它拆开。

20 embargo   

n.禁运（令）；vt.对...实行禁运，禁止（通商）

参考例句：

• This country put an oil embargo on an enemy country.该国对敌国实行石油禁运。
• During the war,they laid an embargo on commerce with enemy countries.在战争期间，他们禁止与敌国通商。

21 sketched   

v.草拟（sketch的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• The historical article sketched the major events of the decade. 这篇有关历史的文章概述了这十年中的重大事件。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He sketched the situation in a few vivid words. 他用几句生动的语言简述了局势。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

22 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

23 pacts   

条约( pact的名词复数 )； 协定； 公约

参考例句：

• Vassals can no longer accept one-sided defensive pacts (!). 附庸国不会接受单方面的共同防御协定。
• Well, they are EU members now and have formed solidarity pacts with members such as Poland. 他们现在已经是欧盟的一部分了并且他们和欧盟成员诸如波兰等以签署了合作协议。

24 thwart   

v.阻挠，妨碍，反对；adj.横(断的)

参考例句：

• We must thwart his malevolent schemes.我们决不能让他的恶毒阴谋得逞。
• I don't think that will thwart our purposes.我认为那不会使我们的目的受到挫折。

25 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

26 appalled   

v.使惊骇，使充满恐惧( appall的过去式和过去分词)adj.惊骇的；丧胆的

参考例句：

• The brutality of the crime has appalled the public. 罪行之残暴使公众大为震惊。
• They were appalled by the reports of the nuclear war. 他们被核战争的报道吓坏了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

27 buttressed   

v.用扶壁支撑，加固( buttress的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The court buttressed its decision. 法院支持自己的判决。 来自辞典例句
• The emotional appeal was buttressed with solid and specific policy details. 情感的感召有坚实的和详细的政策细节支持。 来自互联网

28 affluent   

adj.富裕的，富有的，丰富的，富饶的

参考例句：

• He hails from an affluent background.他出身于一个富有的家庭。
• His parents were very affluent.他的父母很富裕。

29 grumbling   

adj. 喃喃鸣不平的, 出怨言的

参考例句：

• She's always grumbling to me about how badly she's treated at work. 她总是向我抱怨她在工作中如何受亏待。
• We didn't hear any grumbling about the food. 我们没听到过对食物的抱怨。

30 aloof   

adj.远离的；冷淡的，漠不关心的

参考例句：

• Never stand aloof from the masses.千万不可脱离群众。
• On the evening the girl kept herself timidly aloof from the crowd.这小女孩在晚会上一直胆怯地远离人群。

31 breach   

n.违反，不履行；破裂；vt.冲破，攻破

参考例句：

• We won't have any breach of discipline.我们不允许任何破坏纪律的现象。
• He was sued for breach of contract.他因不履行合同而被起诉。

32 breaches   

破坏( breach的名词复数 )； 破裂； 缺口； 违背

参考例句：

• He imposed heavy penalties for breaches of oath or pledges. 他对违反誓言和保证的行为给予严厉的惩罚。
• This renders all breaches of morality before marriage very uncommon. 这样一来，婚前败坏道德的事就少见了。

33 harry   

vt.掠夺，蹂躏，使苦恼

参考例句：

• Today,people feel more hurried and harried.今天，人们感到更加忙碌和苦恼。
• Obama harried business by Healthcare Reform plan.奥巴马用医改掠夺了商界。

34 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

35 inevitably   

adv.不可避免地；必然发生地

参考例句：

• In the way you go on,you are inevitably coming apart.照你们这样下去，毫无疑问是会散伙的。
• Technological changes will inevitably lead to unemployment.技术变革必然会导致失业。

36 clout   

n.用手猛击；权力，影响力

参考例句：

• The queen may have privilege but she has no real political clout.女王有特权，但无真正的政治影响力。
• He gave the little boy a clout on the head.他在那小男孩的头部打了一下。

37 ebb   

vi.衰退，减退；n.处于低潮，处于衰退状态

参考例句：

• The flood and ebb tides alternates with each other.涨潮和落潮交替更迭。
• They swam till the tide began to ebb.他们一直游到开始退潮。

38 soothes   

v.安慰( soothe的第三人称单数 )；抚慰；使舒服；减轻痛苦

参考例句：

• Fear grasps, love lets go. Fear rankles, love soothes. 恐惧使人痛心，爱使痛苦减轻。 来自互联网
• His loe celebrates her victories and soothes her wounds. 他的爱庆祝她的胜利，也抚平她的创伤。 来自互联网