2023年经济学人 论文和专利的颠覆性越来越弱(1)

Papers and patents are becoming less challenging of orthodoxy.

论文和专利对正统观念的挑战正变得越来越小。

"Ideas are like rabbits," John Steinbeck said.

约翰·斯坦贝克说：“想法就像兔子。”

"You get a couple and learn how to handle them, and pretty soon you have a dozen."

“一开始你有几个想法，学着如何处理它们，很快你就会有好多想法。”

Scientific and technological¹ progress is often viewed in this way.

科技进步往往就是这样。

Current ideas build on previous ones.

当前的想法是建立在以前的想法基础上的。

And ideas, along with papers and patents, have indeed proliferated² in the recent past.

在最近一段时期，想法以及论文和专利的数量在激增。

Yet despite - or perhaps because of - this productivity (papers published and patents issued each year now number in the millions), it has been documented that innovation within specific fields has been in decline.

然而，尽管——或许是因为——产出率很高（现在每年发表的论文和发明的专利数量以数百万计），但有记录表明，特定领域的创新数量一直在下降。

For example, a paper titled "Science in the age of selfies", published in 2016, warned of a shifting incentive-and-information landscape in biology, particularly neuroscience, that has diluted³ the number of high-impact discoveries.

例如，2016年发表的一篇题为《自拍时代的科学》的论文警告称，生物学，特别是神经科学中激励和信息模式的不断变化，稀释了高影响力发现的数量。

Michael Park and Russell Funk of the University of Minnesota, and Erin Leahey of the University of Arizona, have set out to determine whether this decline holds for science and technology in general.

明尼苏达大学的迈克尔·帕克和拉塞尔·芬克，以及亚利桑那大学的艾琳·利希，正在研究高影响力发现的减少是否发生在整个科学和技术界。

In a study published this week in Nature they analyse 45m papers and 3.9m patents published and filed between 1945 and 2010.

在本周发表在《自然》杂志上的一项研究中，他们分析了1945年至2010年间发表和提交的4500万篇论文和390万项专利。

The measurement they use for this work, known as the CD index, quantifies how "consolidating⁴" or "disruptive" each paper or patent is.

他们在这项工作中使用了CD指数作为衡量标准，CD指数能够量化每一篇论文或专利对于已知事实的“深化”或“颠覆”程度。

A paper is consolidating (a low CD score) if later work citing it also cites the papers that it, itself, cited.

称一篇论文深化了当前发现（CD分数低）是指，后来的论文引用这篇论文的同时也引用了这篇论文本身引用的论文。

Discoveries and inventions of this sort - like a patent awarded in 2005 for genetically⁵ modified soyabeans - serve to propel science forward along its existing trajectory⁶.

这类发现和发明——比如2005年授予转基因大豆的专利——有助于推动科学沿着现有的轨道向前发展。

By contrast, a paper is disruptive (a high CD score) if it is cited by later work in the absence of citations⁷ of its predecessors⁸.

相比之下，如果一篇论文在没有引用前人的情况下被后来的论文引用，那么它就颠覆了当前发现（CD分数高）。

A classic example of that was the study published in 1953 by James Watson and Francis Crick on the double-helical structure of DNA⁹.

一个经典的例子是詹姆斯·沃森和弗朗西斯·克里克在1953年发表的关于DNA双螺旋结构的研究。

High-CD papers disrupt the status quo, fundamentally altering a field’s trajectory or creating a new field altogether.

CD分数高的论文能够打破现状，从根本上改变一个领域的轨迹，或者创造一个全新的领域。

1 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

2 proliferated   

激增( proliferate的过去式和过去分词 )； （迅速）繁殖； 增生； 扩散

参考例句：

• Books and articles on the subject have proliferated over the last year. 过去一年以来，论及这一问题的书和文章大量涌现。
• Influenza proliferated throughout the country. 流感在全国蔓延。

3 diluted   

无力的，冲淡的

参考例句：

• The paint can be diluted with water to make a lighter shade. 这颜料可用水稀释以使色度淡一些。
• This pesticide is diluted with water and applied directly to the fields. 这种杀虫剂用水稀释后直接施用在田里。

4 consolidating   

v.（使）巩固， （使）加强( consolidate的现在分词 )；（使）合并

参考例句：

• These measures are meant for consolidating the system of basic medical care. 这些举措旨在夯实基层医疗体系，让老百姓看大病不必出远门。 来自互联网
• We are consolidating the Chinese and English versions of our homepage. 我们将为您提供中英文版本一起的主页。 来自互联网

5 genetically   

adv.遗传上

参考例句：

• All the bees in the colony are genetically related. 同一群体的蜜蜂都有亲缘关系。
• Genetically modified foods have already arrived on American dinner tables. 经基因改造加工过的食物已端上了美国人的餐桌。 来自英汉非文学 - 生命科学 - 基因与食物

6 trajectory   

n.弹道，轨道

参考例句：

• It is not difficult to sketch the subsequent trajectory.很容易描绘出它们最终的轨迹。
• The path followed by a projectile is called its trajectory.抛物体所循的路径称为它的轨道。

7 citations   

n.引用( citation的名词复数 )；引证；引文；表扬

参考例句：

• The apt citations and poetic gems have adorned his speeches. 贴切的引语和珠玑般的诗句为他的演说词增添文采。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Some dictionary writers use citations to show what words mean. 有些辞典的编纂者用引文作例证以解释词义。 来自辞典例句

8 predecessors   

n.前任( predecessor的名词复数 )；前辈；（被取代的）原有事物；前身

参考例句：

• The new government set about dismantling their predecessors' legislation. 新政府正着手废除其前任所制定的法律。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Will new plan be any more acceptable than its predecessors? 新计划比原先的计划更能令人满意吗？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 DNA   

(缩)deoxyribonucleic acid 脱氧核糖核酸

参考例句：

• DNA is stored in the nucleus of a cell.脱氧核糖核酸储存于细胞的细胞核里。
• Gene mutations are alterations in the DNA code.基因突变是指DNA密码的改变。