2023年经济学人 为什么西方的就业奇迹会持续下去(2)

 

 

    What explains employers’ Japanese turn?

    如何解释雇主的日本化倾向？

    Perhaps, after the pandemic, bosses are kinder to workers.

    也许，在疫情过后，老板们对员工更仁慈了。

    Another, more realistic, possibility is that firms are in a strong financial position.

    另一种更现实的可能性是，公司的财务状况良好。

    This may allow them to withstand lower revenues today without needing to slash¹ costs.

    这可能让他们在不需要削减成本的情况下，能够承受现今较低的收入。

    Many received help from governments during the covid era.

    在疫情时期，许多企业得到了政府的帮助。

    And in recent years corporate² profits have been hefty.

    近年来，企业利润一直很高。

    Businesses across the rich world are still sitting on cash piles about a third higher than before the pandemic.

    富裕国家的企业，其坐拥的资金仍比疫情前多出约三分之一。

    A more intriguing³ possibility concerns the workforce⁴.

    一个更耐人寻味的可能性与劳动力有关。

    According to our estimates, the rich world is “missing” 10m workers, or roughly 1.5% of the labour force, relative to pre-pandemic trends.

    根据我们的估计，与疫情前的趋势相比，富裕国家“缺少”了1000万工人，约占劳动力总数的1.5%。

    In Britain and Italy the workforce has actually shrunk.

    在英国和意大利，劳动力实际上已经缩减。

    Early retirements⁵ and an ageing population explain part of the deficit⁶.

    提前退休和人口老龄化是造成这一缺口的部分原因。

    Covid may have pushed people to reassess their priorities, prompting them to drop out.

    新冠疫情可能使得人们重新评估自己的优先事项，并促使他们退休。

    Some even think long covid is forcing people to stay on the sidelines.

    一些人甚至认为，长期的疫情正迫使人们置身事外。

    Whatever the explanation, falling participation⁷ has wreaked⁸ havoc⁹ with plans.

    无论作何解释，参与度下降对计划造成了严重破坏。

    Many firms fired staff when the pandemic hit, only to struggle to rehire them in 2021.

    许多公司在疫情来袭时解雇了员工，结果在2021年却很难再重新聘用他们。

    That year vacancies¹⁰ in the OECD hit an all-time high of 30m.

    那一年，经合组织国家的职位空缺数达到创历史新高的3000万。

    Employers may now want to avoid making the same mistake.

    雇主现在可能希望避免重蹈覆辙。

    A recent report by S&P Global Market Intelligence, a consultancy, identifies “a reluctance¹¹ among companies to sanction job cuts due to the immense challenges they faced in rehiring post-pandemic”.

    咨询公司标普全球市场才智公司最近发布的一份报告指出，由于疫情过后，企业在重新招聘员工方面面临巨大挑战，因此企业不愿批准裁员。

    In America gross job losses have so far been smaller than is normal at the start of the year.

    在美国，到目前为止，失业总人数比年初的正常水平要低。

    Daniel Silver of JPMorgan Chase, a bank, speculates that this is because “firms are reluctant to let go of workers given perceived difficulties in eventual¹² rehiring.”

    摩根大通银行的丹尼尔·西尔弗推测，这是因为“考虑到最终重新招聘的困难，公司不愿解雇工人”。

    Labour-market pain may end up being merely delayed.

    劳动力市场的痛苦可能最终只是被推迟。

    In some past recessions unemployment only started to rise decisively some time after GDP started to fall.

    在过去的一些衰退中，失业率在GDP开始下降一段时间后才开始显著上升。

    But “real-time” data show little sign that joblessness is about to surge.

    但“实时”数据显示，几乎没有迹象表明失业率即将飙升。

    A recent survey by ManpowerGroup, a staffing firm, suggests employers in most countries still have ambitious hiring plans.

    人力资源公司万宝盛华最近的一项调查显示，大多数国家的雇主仍有宏大的招聘计划。

    In America the National Federation¹³ of Independent Business, a lobby group, finds an unusually large share of small firms plan to create new jobs in the next three months.

    在美国，游说团体全国独立企业联合会发现，计划在未来三个月内创造新工作岗位的小公司的比例高得异乎寻常。

    Confronted with labour-market resilience even in the face of rising interest rates, central banks may be tempted¹⁴ to tighten¹⁵ monetary¹⁶ policy faster still.

    看到劳动力市场在利率不断上升时仍有弹性，央行可能会受到诱惑，以还要更快的速度收紧货币政策。

    Further increases in rates, or another energy shock, may push employers over the edge, forcing them to cut staff.

    利率的进一步提高，或另一场能源危机，可能会将雇主推到边缘，迫使他们裁员。

    The pressure to retain staff could, however, become a structural¹⁷ issue.

    然而，留住员工的压力可能会成为一个结构性问题。

    Over the next decade rich-world populations will age rapidly, dragging further on labour supply.

    在接下来的十年里，富裕国家的人口将迅速老龄化，进一步拉低劳动力供应。

    Good workers are likely to become harder to find.

    好员工可能会更加难找。

    Next time there may only be three people making your correspondent’s martini.

    下一次，给您的记者倒马提尼的可能只有三个人了。

1 slash   

vi.大幅度削减；vt.猛砍，尖锐抨击，大幅减少；n.猛砍，斜线，长切口，衣衩

参考例句：

• The shop plans to slash fur prices after Spring Festival.该店计划在春节之后把皮货降价。
• Don't slash your horse in that cruel way.不要那样残忍地鞭打你的马。

2 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

3 intriguing   

adj.有趣的；迷人的v.搞阴谋诡计(intrigue的现在分词)；激起…的好奇心

参考例句：

• These discoveries raise intriguing questions. 这些发现带来了非常有趣的问题。
• It all sounds very intriguing. 这些听起来都很有趣。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 workforce   

n.劳动大军，劳动力

参考例句：

• A large part of the workforce is employed in agriculture.劳动人口中一大部分受雇于农业。
• A quarter of the local workforce is unemployed.本地劳动力中有四分之一失业。

5 retirements   

退休( retirement的名词复数 )； 退职； 退役； 退休的实例

参考例句：

• We've had two retirements in our office this year. 今年我们办公室已有二人退休。
• Those may take the form of sackings redundancies, temporary layoffs or retirements. 这些形式有开除，作为编余人员，暂时解雇或退休。

6 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

7 participation   

n.参与，参加，分享

参考例句：

• Some of the magic tricks called for audience participation.有些魔术要求有观众的参与。
• The scheme aims to encourage increased participation in sporting activities.这个方案旨在鼓励大众更多地参与体育活动。

8 wreaked   

诉诸（武力），施行（暴力），发（脾气）( wreak的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city. 地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• They have wreaked dreadful havoc among the wildlife by shooting and trapping. 他们射杀和诱捕野生动物，造成了严重的破坏。

9 havoc   

n.大破坏，浩劫，大混乱，大杂乱

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city.地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• This concentration of airborne firepower wrought havoc with the enemy forces.这次机载火力的集中攻击给敌军造成很大破坏。

10 vacancies   

n.空房间( vacancy的名词复数 )；空虚；空白；空缺

参考例句：

• job vacancies 职位空缺
• The sign outside the motel said \"No Vacancies\". 汽车旅馆外的招牌显示“客满”。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 reluctance   

n.厌恶，讨厌，勉强，不情愿

参考例句：

• The police released Andrew with reluctance.警方勉强把安德鲁放走了。
• He showed the greatest reluctance to make a reply.他表示很不愿意答复。

12 eventual   

adj.最后的，结局的，最终的

参考例句：

• Several schools face eventual closure.几所学校面临最终关闭。
• Both parties expressed optimism about an eventual solution.双方对问题的最终解决都表示乐观。

13 federation   

n.同盟，联邦，联合，联盟，联合会

参考例句：

• It is a federation of 10 regional unions.它是由十个地方工会结合成的联合会。
• Mr.Putin was inaugurated as the President of the Russian Federation.普京正式就任俄罗斯联邦总统。

14 tempted   

v.怂恿（某人）干不正当的事；冒…的险（tempt的过去分词）

参考例句：

• I was sorely tempted to complain, but I didn't. 我极想发牢骚，但还是没开口。
• I was tempted by the dessert menu. 甜食菜单馋得我垂涎欲滴。

15 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

16 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

17 structural   

adj.构造的，组织的，建筑（用）的

参考例句：

• The storm caused no structural damage.风暴没有造成建筑结构方面的破坏。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities.北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。