美国国家公共电台 NPR As Growth Slows To 1.9%, The Economy Is Falling Short Of Trump's Target

 

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

President Trump¹ is counting on a strong economy to help him win reelection next year. But new numbers from the Commerce Department this morning show the economy lost steam during the summer and early fall. GDP grew at an annual pace of just 1.9% in the third quarter, well below the White House target. Here's NPR's Scott Horsley.

SCOTT HORSLEY, BYLINE²: Weak economic growth in the third quarter follows a sluggish³ second quarter, when the economy grew at an annual pace of just 2%. At this point, it would take an economic miracle to achieve the 3.2% growth rate for the full year predicted in the president's budget.

DIANE SWONK: We won't get a three-plus percent growth rate for the year. That's not going to happen.

HORSLEY: Chief economist⁴ Diane Swonk of Grant Thornton says third-quarter growth was hobbled in part by temporary factors, including the strike at General Motors and the continued grounding of Boeing 737 MAX jets. But the slowdown also reflects a steady decline in business investment. The GOP tax cut was supposed to promote a surge in business spending, and the White House promised that would supercharge economic growth. But Swonk says many businesses have grown skittish⁵ in the face of weak demand overseas and the president's trade war.

SWONK: The uncertainty⁶ tax that we're paying with regard to trade - businesses don't know where to place their bets and don't know where to invest when they don't know where the next tariffs⁷ are going to come from. And so that's been one of the biggest weights on the U.S. economy.

HORSLEY: Despite the flashing warning signs, the president continues to boast about the economy, telling reporters during a Cabinet meeting last week it's his ticket to a second term.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Look, I have the strongest economy ever. It's the economy's stupid, right? I have the strongest economy in the history of our country.

HORSLEY: To be sure, the nation's unemployment rate is near a 50-year low. And as Trump noted⁸ earlier this week, the S&P 500 stock index just hit an all-time high.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

TRUMP: Does anybody have a 401(k) that's up?

(CHEERING)

TRUMP: Everybody.

HORSLEY: Other presidents have been wary⁹ of hitching¹⁰ their political fortunes to a volatile¹¹ stock market, but economist Mark Zandi says Trump shows no such reservations.

MARK ZANDI: Of course, he only focuses when the market's up. But nonetheless, he's got his finger on something. The market matters a lot. It's a real-time barometer¹² of how the economy is doing, and people perceive it that way.

HORSLEY: Zandi and his colleagues at Moody's Analytics have built a model that uses a variety of economic indicators¹³, including the stock market, household income, unemployment and gasoline prices, to help predict the outcome of next year's presidential race. For now, Zandi says the economy is working in Trump's favor.

ZANDI: If the economy is performing a year from now roughly like it is today and his approval rating is roughly the same and, of course, if turnout is typical, then given the economics, he will win. He will win the presidency¹⁴ in 2020.

HORSLEY: Zandi says that could change, though, if the economic slowdown triggers a drop in the stock market or a jump in unemployment. A spike¹⁵ in voter turnout could also help Democrats¹⁶, especially in the key battlegrounds of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Zandi notes all three of those states have a lot of factories and farms, businesses in the crosshairs of the president's trade war.

ZANDI: Those are the industries that are actually suffering the most right now. So ironically, the president's trade war is doing the most damage to the economies of those states that will matter most to his reelection bid.

HORSLEY: If Trump's paying attention to that, Zandi thinks the president will find a face-saving way to avoid escalating¹⁷ the trade war. If not, he says Trump's own political stock could suffer as well. Scott Horsley, NPR News, Washington.

(SOUNDBITE OF GOGO PENGUIN'S "SMARRA")

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 byline   

n.署名；v.署名

参考例句：

• His byline was absent as well.他的署名也不见了。
• We wish to thank the author of this article which carries no byline.我们要感谢这篇文章的那位没有署名的作者。

3 sluggish   

adj.懒惰的，迟钝的，无精打采的

参考例句：

• This humid heat makes you feel rather sluggish.这种湿热的天气使人感到懒洋洋的。
• Circulation is much more sluggish in the feet than in the hands.脚部的循环比手部的循环缓慢得多。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 skittish   

adj.易激动的，轻佻的

参考例句：

• She gets very skittish when her boy-friend is around.她男朋友在场时，她就显得格外轻佻。
• I won't have my son associating with skittish girls.我不准我的儿子与轻佻的女孩交往。

6 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

7 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

8 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

9 wary   

adj.谨慎的，机警的，小心的

参考例句：

• He is wary of telling secrets to others.他谨防向他人泄露秘密。
• Paula frowned,suddenly wary.宝拉皱了皱眉头，突然警惕起来。

10 hitching   

搭乘； （免费）搭乘他人之车( hitch的现在分词 )； 搭便车； 攀上； 跃上

参考例句：

• The farmer yoked the oxen before hitching them to the wagon. 农夫在将牛套上大车之前先给它们套上轭。
• I saw an old man hitching along on his stick. 我看见一位老人拄着手杖蹒跚而行。

11 volatile   

adj.反复无常的，挥发性的，稍纵即逝的，脾气火爆的；n.挥发性物质

参考例句：

• With the markets being so volatile,investments are at great risk.由于市场那么变化不定，投资冒着很大的风险。
• His character was weak and volatile.他这个人意志薄弱，喜怒无常。

12 barometer   

n.气压表，睛雨表，反应指标

参考例句：

• The barometer marked a continuing fall in atmospheric pressure.气压表表明气压在继续下降。
• The arrow on the barometer was pointing to"stormy".气压计上的箭头指向“有暴风雨”。

13 indicators   

（仪器上显示温度、压力、耗油量等的）指针( indicator的名词复数 )； 指示物； （车辆上的）转弯指示灯； 指示信号

参考例句：

• The economic indicators are better than expected. 经济指标比预期的好。
• It is still difficult to develop indicators for many concepts used in social science. 为社会科学领域的许多概念确立一个指标仍然很难。

14 presidency   

n.总统(校长，总经理)的职位(任期)

参考例句：

• Roosevelt was elected four times to the presidency of the United States.罗斯福连续当选四届美国总统。
• Two candidates are emerging as contestants for the presidency.两位候选人最终成为总统职位竞争者。

15 spike   

n.长钉，钉鞋；v.以大钉钉牢，使...失效

参考例句：

• The spike pierced the receipts and held them in order.那个钉子穿过那些收据并使之按顺序排列。
• They'll do anything to spike the guns of the opposition.他们会使出各种手段来挫败对手。

16 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

17 escalating   

v.（使）逐步升级( escalate的现在分词 )；（使）逐步扩大；（使）更高；（使）更大

参考例句：

• The cost of living is escalating. 生活费用在迅速上涨。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The cost of living is escalating in the country. 这个国家的生活费用在上涨。 来自辞典例句