彭蒙惠英语：Working Smarter Together

Working Smarter Together

2

Taking advantage of what’s there

 

How can firms tap into the collective wisdom? One intriguing¹ method of doing this is to set up internal decision markets, which firms can use to produce forecasts of the future and evaluations² of potential corporate³ strategies. Few companies have tried such markets. But the few examples suggest they could be very useful. In the late 1990s, for instance, Hewlett-Packard experimented with artificial markets to forecast sales. Only 20 to 30 percent of employees participated, and each market ran for just a week, with people trading at lunch and in the evening. Similar to the way securities, stocks or commodities are traded in other markets, employees were given “shares” to trade, buy or sell according to their opinion about sales projections⁴. The internal market’s results outperformed the company 75 percent of the time. Even more impressive was a recent experiment at e. Lilly, a division of Eli Lilly, which set up a market to test whether it was possible to distinguish between drug candidates likely to be approved by the FDA and those likely to be rejected. Realistic profiles and experimental data for six hypothetical drugs were devised by e. Lilly, three of which it knew would be approved and three rejected. When trading opened, the market—made up of a diverse mix of employees— quickly identified the winners.

 

The evidence is clear: Groups— whether top executives evaluating a potential acquisition, or sales reps and engineers analyzing⁵ a new product—will consistently make better decisions than an individual. Companies have spent too long coddling the special few. It’s time for them to start figuring out how they’re going to tap the wisdom of the many.

 

Vocabulary Focus

tap into (v phr) to obtain or make advantageous⁶ use of something

candidate (n) [5kAndidit] a person or thing considered likely to receive or experience something

hypothetical (adj) [7haipEu5WetikEl] imagined or suggested but not necessarily real or true

 

合作生巧

 

利用现成优势

公司如何获得集体智慧？一个颇有吸引力的方法是建立内部决策市场，公司可借此产生对未来的预测以及对公司潜在策略的评估。很少有公司尝试这么做。但几个少有的例子透露出这个方法可能很有用。譬如，在20世纪90年代末期，惠普公司（HP）实验用虚拟市场来预测销售。只有20%～30%的员工参与，每个市场为期1周，员工在午餐时和晚上交易。类似证券、股票或期货在其它市场交易的方式，员工们被给予“股份”作交易，根据他们对销售预测的意见来买卖。有75%的时候，内部市场的结果表现超过公司。最近的一个实验甚至更让人印象深刻，e.Lilly 是礼来公司的一个部门，他们建立一个市场来试验是否能分辨出可能被美国食品及药物管理局核准和驳回的候选药品。e.Lilly 为6种假想的药品设计了真实简介和实验数据，他们知道其中3种会被核准，另3种会被驳回。交易开始时，由各种员工混合组成的市场很快就分辨出哪些是赢家。

证据很明显：无论是高层主管们评估潜在的收购案，或是业务代表和工程师们在分析新产品，团体都比单一个人更能持续地作出较好的决定。公司已经花了太久的时间宠溺那些特别的少数分子。现在是开始想想要如何获得多数智慧的时候了。

 

1 intriguing   

adj.有趣的；迷人的v.搞阴谋诡计(intrigue的现在分词)；激起…的好奇心

参考例句：

• These discoveries raise intriguing questions. 这些发现带来了非常有趣的问题。
• It all sounds very intriguing. 这些听起来都很有趣。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 evaluations   

估价( evaluation的名词复数 )； 赋值； 估计价值； [医学]诊断

参考例句：

• In fact, our moral evaluations are merely expressions of our desires. 事实上，我们的道德评价只是我们欲望的表达形式。 来自哲学部分
• Properly speaking, however, these evaluations and insights are not within the concept of official notice. 但准确地讲，这些评估和深远见识并未包括在官方通知概念里。

3 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

4 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

5 analyzing   

v.分析；分析( analyze的现在分词 )；分解；解释；对…进行心理分析n.分析

参考例句：

• Analyzing the date of some socialist countries presents even greater problem s. 分析某些社会主义国家的统计数据，暴露出的问题甚至更大。 来自辞典例句
• He undoubtedly was not far off the mark in analyzing its predictions. 当然，他对其预测所作的分析倒也八九不离十。 来自辞典例句

6 advantageous   

adj.有利的；有帮助的

参考例句：

• Injections of vitamin C are obviously advantageous.注射维生素C显然是有利的。
• You're in a very advantageous position.你处于非常有利的地位。