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内罗毕袭击显露基地组织在非洲之角的影响

The attack by al-Shabab militants² on Nairobi's Westgate shopping mall has raised fears that the group is broadening its aim beyond winning control of its homeland, Somalia. Security analysts⁴ say al-Shabab has morphed from a regional militant¹ group to a terrorist organization closely aligned⁵ with al-Qaida.

索马里青年党激进分子在内罗毕西门购物中心发动的袭击，让人们更加害怕这个组织除了赢回对家乡索马里的控制，更进一步扩大它的攻击目标。安全分析人士说，青年党已经从区域性激进组织转变为一个与基地组织紧密结盟的恐怖组织。

Al-Shabab released a photo Tuesday, which they say shows militants from the group inside Nairobi’s Westgate mall. It’s not clear when it was taken.

青年党星期二公布了这张照片。他们说照片显示这个组织的激进分子正在西门购物中心里。不过不清楚照片的拍摄时间。

The choice of a ‘soft target’ is a hallmark of the group, says Sajjan Gohel, security director at analyst³ group the Asia Pacific Foundation in London.

总部在伦敦的分析机构亚太基金会的安全部主任撒贾尼?戈赫尔说，选择一个“软目标”是这个组织的标记。

“The chances of inflicting⁶ maximum damage are more likely.  It also precipitates⁷ the fear factor because terrorism becomes visualized⁸.  The chances are it’s being recorded; with new media people can even film events.  That is the oxygen of publicity⁹ for the terrorist groups and for al-Shabab in particular, this fit into their agenda,” said Gohel.

亚太基金会撒贾尼?戈赫尔说： “因为造成最大伤害的机会较有可能。它也会促成恐惧效应，因为恐怖主义变得具体化。有很大的机会它被记录下来。现在有新媒体，人们甚至可以把所有事件拍摄下来。这是恐怖组织宣传所需的氧气，尤其是对青年党而言，这符合他们的目标。”

Al-Shabab says it carried out the attack as revenge for the presence of 4,000 Kenyan troops in Somalia, who are fighting the militants under the African Union banner.

青年党说，它发动袭击时为了报复肯尼亚在索马里派驻4千名部队，他们在非洲联盟的旗帜下打击激进分子。

The group carried out a suicide bombing in the Ugandan capital Kampala in 2010, killing¹⁰ 76 people.  Uganda also has thousands of troops in Somalia.

这个组织2010年在乌干达首都坎帕拉发动自杀炸弹袭击，导致76人丧生。乌干达也有数千名部队派驻在索马里。

Al-Shabab’s primary aim is still regaining¹¹ control of Somalia - but they also have their sights set on attacking the West, says Alexander Meleagrou-Hitchens of the International Center for the Study of Radicalization at Kings College London.

伦敦国王学院国际激进主义化研究中心的梅里格罗?西臣斯说，青年党的主要目标仍然是取回对索马里的控制，不过他们也把目光放在对西方的袭击。

“Their main way of doing this is fighting the insurgency¹² and also striking the countries that are involved in the mission to remove them from Somalia. This includes Kenya and Uganda.  So Kenya and Uganda are really at the top of their list as targets but also below that, especially for the global jihadist element of al-Shabab, there is also the desire to hit out at what they see as the real puppet masters of this whole thing, which is America and Israel, who they believe Kenya and Uganda are acting¹³ as proxies¹⁴ for,” said Meleagrou-Hitchens.

梅里格罗?西臣斯说：“他们主要的做法就是打击暴乱分子，并袭击那些涉及这个任务的国家，将他们赶出索马里。这包括肯尼亚和乌干达。所以肯尼亚和乌干达才真的是他们的首要目标，不过排在后面的，尤其是对青年党内伊斯兰全球圣战的派系来说，他们还有一个欲望是要对被他们视为真正是傀儡的主人，也就是美国和以色列发动袭击。他们认为肯尼亚和乌干达只是这2个国家的代理人。”

The targeting of non-Muslims in the latest attack suggests al-Shabab is increasingly rooted in the ideology¹⁵ of al-Qaida, says Gohel.

亚太基金会的戈赫尔说，非穆斯林人士在这个最新的袭击里成为目标，显示基地组织的意识形态逐渐在青年党里生根。

“What we’ve seen in the last couple of years is an internal conflict emerge within al-Shabab where a core leadership has now aligned themselves ideologically¹⁶ with al-Qaida central, now led by Ayman al-Zawahiri.  And it’s that element that has carried out this particular attack, or that is what is believed to be the case,” said Gohel.

戈赫尔说：“我们在最近两年看到的是青年党内部出现冲突，核心领导的意识形态现在已经和正由艾曼?扎瓦赫里领导的基地组织中央结合。就是这个派系发动了这次的袭击，或者说，外界是这么看。”

Kenyan authorities - and foreign intelligence services - will aim to uncover more about the ideology and international links once the attackers are identified.

在袭击者的身份被指认后，肯尼亚当局和外国情报机构，将致力于进一步了解袭击者的意识形态，以及他们在国际性连结。